基于GTD的教育机构恐怖袭击实证分析及防范策略

在反恐形势日趋严峻的大环境下,教育机构已逐渐成为恐怖分子袭击的重点目标。基于GTD数据库中所收录的2009-2018年恐怖袭击的数据,以教育机构为研究对象,从教育机构恐怖袭击的发生数量、地域分布、袭击手段,以及所造成的后果等方面进行梳理,并对两个典型案例(两个国家的情况)进行分析,发现教育机构恐怖袭击主要有以下特点:袭击频发但呈下降趋势、袭击地域分布不平衡、袭击手段以爆炸为主袭击损失小但引起恐慌大等。对教育机构恐怖袭击,应从安保措施、情报预警、危险品管控以及宣传教育等方面加强防范。     

沉默权：一个无法沉默的话题——从我国刑诉法“应当如实回答”谈起

我国刑诉法规定了犯罪嫌疑人面对审讯人员的审讯：“应当如实回答”的义务,使其在刑事诉讼中处于不利的地位。是否赋予犯罪嫌疑人沉默权,由“口供本位”转向“物证本位”,彻底改变目前的侦查模式,是我国刑事诉讼法修改的一个不容忽视的重要问题。     

甘肃省禁毒方略探讨

作为西部地区之一的甘肃省,禁毒工作在取得了显著成效的同时面临的形势依然严峻,禁毒斗争依然任重道远。为了使甘肃省禁毒斗争取得新的突破,本文探讨了甘肃省禁毒工作面临的新形势,并提出了进一步开展禁毒工作的建议。     

21世纪初日本对外目标及外交战略探析

21世纪初期,日本在坚持“普通国家化”既定战略目标的基础上,从国家战略原则、战略重点及国家利益出发,围绕日美同盟、联合国外交、亚洲外交、应对全球气候变化等战略重点,力求以“全方位外交”实现日本国家对外目标及外交战略意图。     

莫迪执政以来印度海洋安全战略的观念与实践

2014年莫迪在印度执政以来,引领印度经济持续快速发展,印度其对外贸易、国内民生与国家安全对海洋的依赖越来越高。莫迪政府清醒认识到海洋特别是印度洋对印度的安全与发展的关键意义,并于2015年起适时调整海洋安全战略,将2007年确立的以“自由使用海洋”为主题的海上军事战略在有所继承的基础上调整为以“确保安全的海洋”为主题的海洋安全战略。这说明印度在自由使用海洋的过程中,遭遇了多样的海上安全挑战。来自海上以及发生在海上的安全风险直接影响到印度的对外贸易和海上运输、海洋经济活动的展开、海岸和港口城市的安全、海外资产与海外公民的安全,最终危及印度的国家安全。印度调整海上安全战略,明确以印度洋地区为首要利益区,同时加强以印度海军为主体的海上安全保障力量,为之确立多样任务目标下的军事战略,并积极采取有针对性的海上军事行动。同时,印度政府还通过外交手段,与周边邻国、关键的地区大国或国家集团以及全球大国建立双边和多边海上安全机制来应对多样的海上安全威胁,维护海洋安全,最终服务于印度的经济发展和国家安全,并为印度寻求印度洋的主导地位积累资本、创造条件。     

Security Providers: Obstacles to Effectiveness in Democracies

To usefully discuss security, one must analyze the security providers states utilize to enhance international and domestic security. These are the armed forces, police, and intelligence agencies. This paper analyzes the implications of democratization on the requirements—posited as strategies, resources, and coordination institutions—these providers require in order to achieve the goals civilian leaders set for them. In analyzing case studies of how nations implement six different tasks, it becomes clear that the absence, or weakness, in any of the requirements leads to serious weakness in implementation. Two findings from the case studies are particularly important for policy. First, presidents, who are elected directly and for fixed terms, may ignore or even abolish institutions, including national security councils, that are created to coordinate policy. Second, as civilians are in control, if they lack clear incentives they are not willing to provide the necessary requirements for the security providers.     

Local elected administrators’ career characteristics and revenue diversification as a managerial strategy

Local governments have endeavoured to be fiscally better prepared against adverse economic downturns, and revenue diversification (RD) is considered one of such efforts. This study examines how Korean local governments have utilised diversification as a managerial strategy between 2007 and 2010. Focusing on local elected administrators’ (LEAs’) previous career, it reports that local governments with administrators with business experiences diversify revenues more than those with politics-turned administrators. It further finds that the effects of socio-economic and institutional factors are moderated by administrators’ career characteristics. Based on such evidence, theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

New Changes in the International Situation and China's Strategic Choices

The international situation is evolving more impressively than it has at any time since the end of the Cold War.Globalization has been in decline.Nations are scrambling to gain greater influence.The international strategic pattern is being adjusted.Many countries have problems with public management,and are faced with a new array of social trends and increasingly popular movements.The world is entering a new era full of chaos and anxiety.Mankind once again faces significant trade-offs and choices in peace and conflict,development and recession,openness and isolation,liberalism and conservatism.China strives to advocate win-win cooperation and lead the trend of reform and opening to maintain a favorable external environment despite world chaos,and enhance status and institutional rights in the international system.China's 30 years of development was successful in the process of integrating into the existing international system;China is a participant as well as a builder of the international system,rather than a challenger or a subversive.In the future,with a constructive attitude,China will promote the international system in a more reasonable direction together with international partners,in order to better safeguard world peace and security,and promote sustainable development throughout the world.     

International Disorder and China's Strategic Thoughts

Since the 2008 international financial crisis,international political and economic disorder has become obvious.Major reasons are the decline of US-led Western developed economies' global influence;US and other Western countries inaction or ineffective actions;power diffusion allowing non-state actors to intervene;a global governance short of needed rules;and mainstream economic theory's overemphasis on market roles.International disorder is a long-term process posing a potential threat to China' s national interests.The situation challenges China to create an international economic and trade order,thereby shaping itself as prophet of global free trade,shaper of international economic and trade rules,and trendsetter for globalization.     

The geography of pre-criminal space: epidemiological imaginations of radicalisation risk in the UK Prevent Strategy, 2007–2017

ABSTRACT

This article explores geographical and epistemological shifts in the deployment of the UK Prevent strategy, 2007–2017. Counter-radicalisation policies of the Labour governments (2006–2010) focused heavily upon resilience-building activities in residential communities. They borrowed from historical models of crime prevention and public health to imagine radicalisation risk as an epidemiological concern in areas showing a 2% or higher demography of Muslims. However, this racialised and localised imagination of pre-criminal space was replaced after the election of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in 2010. Residential communities were then de-emphasised as sites of risk, transmission and pre-criminal intervention. The Prevent Duty now deploys counter-radicalisation through national networks of education and health-care provision. Localised models of crime prevention (and their statistical, crime prevention epistemologies) have been de-emphasised in favour of big data inflected epistemologies of inductive, population-wide “safeguarding”. Through the biopolitical discourse of “safeguarding vulnerable adults”, the Prevent Duty has radically reconstituted the epidemiological imagination of pre-criminal space, imagining that all bodies are potentially vulnerable to infection by radicalisers and thus warrant surveillance.