特朗普安全战略的调整与限度

随着特朗普政府陆续出台一系列战略文件,相关安全政策付诸实施,其安全战略的基本态势逐渐清晰。特朗普的安全观和政策举措,共同构成执政初期安全战略的主体。特朗普的安全观建立在其自身对世界“霍布斯主义”认知的基础上,同时融合了共和党现实主义安全观的基本主张,反映了军工企业及军人群体等背后主要利益集团的核心诉求。特朗普的安全政策仍处于成型中,在军事战略、新空间战略和地区安全战略三个层面举措较多,相关布局较为系统,集中折射了其安全理念。在军事安全层面,在重塑美军优势的核心目标下,扩张性的态势表现明显;在新空间战略层面,进攻性、军事化的特征尤为突出;在地区安全战略层面虽然在手段上有所变化,但总体延续了防御性战略。特朗普的安全战略调整未来仍将面临诸多限度,包括财政制约、同时应对两个大国难以兼顾、建制派的牵制等。特朗普的安全战略将加剧中美在安全领域的对抗态势,两国在军事战略、新空间战略稳定以及南海问题上的对冲和深层矛盾或进一步发酵。安全关系的上述变化将给中美“竞争”增添新变数。     

Security Providers: Obstacles to Effectiveness in Democracies

To usefully discuss security, one must analyze the security providers states utilize to enhance international and domestic security. These are the armed forces, police, and intelligence agencies. This paper analyzes the implications of democratization on the requirements—posited as strategies, resources, and coordination institutions—these providers require in order to achieve the goals civilian leaders set for them. In analyzing case studies of how nations implement six different tasks, it becomes clear that the absence, or weakness, in any of the requirements leads to serious weakness in implementation. Two findings from the case studies are particularly important for policy. First, presidents, who are elected directly and for fixed terms, may ignore or even abolish institutions, including national security councils, that are created to coordinate policy. Second, as civilians are in control, if they lack clear incentives they are not willing to provide the necessary requirements for the security providers.     

Local elected administrators’ career characteristics and revenue diversification as a managerial strategy

Local governments have endeavoured to be fiscally better prepared against adverse economic downturns, and revenue diversification (RD) is considered one of such efforts. This study examines how Korean local governments have utilised diversification as a managerial strategy between 2007 and 2010. Focusing on local elected administrators’ (LEAs’) previous career, it reports that local governments with administrators with business experiences diversify revenues more than those with politics-turned administrators. It further finds that the effects of socio-economic and institutional factors are moderated by administrators’ career characteristics. Based on such evidence, theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

New Changes in the International Situation and China's Strategic Choices

The international situation is evolving more impressively than it has at any time since the end of the Cold War.Globalization has been in decline.Nations are scrambling to gain greater influence.The international strategic pattern is being adjusted.Many countries have problems with public management,and are faced with a new array of social trends and increasingly popular movements.The world is entering a new era full of chaos and anxiety.Mankind once again faces significant trade-offs and choices in peace and conflict,development and recession,openness and isolation,liberalism and conservatism.China strives to advocate win-win cooperation and lead the trend of reform and opening to maintain a favorable external environment despite world chaos,and enhance status and institutional rights in the international system.China's 30 years of development was successful in the process of integrating into the existing international system;China is a participant as well as a builder of the international system,rather than a challenger or a subversive.In the future,with a constructive attitude,China will promote the international system in a more reasonable direction together with international partners,in order to better safeguard world peace and security,and promote sustainable development throughout the world.     

International Disorder and China's Strategic Thoughts

Since the 2008 international financial crisis,international political and economic disorder has become obvious.Major reasons are the decline of US-led Western developed economies' global influence;US and other Western countries inaction or ineffective actions;power diffusion allowing non-state actors to intervene;a global governance short of needed rules;and mainstream economic theory's overemphasis on market roles.International disorder is a long-term process posing a potential threat to China' s national interests.The situation challenges China to create an international economic and trade order,thereby shaping itself as prophet of global free trade,shaper of international economic and trade rules,and trendsetter for globalization.     

The geography of pre-criminal space: epidemiological imaginations of radicalisation risk in the UK Prevent Strategy, 2007–2017

ABSTRACT

This article explores geographical and epistemological shifts in the deployment of the UK Prevent strategy, 2007–2017. Counter-radicalisation policies of the Labour governments (2006–2010) focused heavily upon resilience-building activities in residential communities. They borrowed from historical models of crime prevention and public health to imagine radicalisation risk as an epidemiological concern in areas showing a 2% or higher demography of Muslims. However, this racialised and localised imagination of pre-criminal space was replaced after the election of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in 2010. Residential communities were then de-emphasised as sites of risk, transmission and pre-criminal intervention. The Prevent Duty now deploys counter-radicalisation through national networks of education and health-care provision. Localised models of crime prevention (and their statistical, crime prevention epistemologies) have been de-emphasised in favour of big data inflected epistemologies of inductive, population-wide “safeguarding”. Through the biopolitical discourse of “safeguarding vulnerable adults”, the Prevent Duty has radically reconstituted the epidemiological imagination of pre-criminal space, imagining that all bodies are potentially vulnerable to infection by radicalisers and thus warrant surveillance.     

防治重新犯罪与构建和谐社会——重新犯罪现状与对策的实证研究

社会转型和城市化进程加速引发了人员迁徙浪潮和社会关系的急剧变化,犯罪率和重新犯罪率呈持续攀升,并突破历史的高点。人员迁徙,社会管理保障不配套,引发犯罪和再犯罪;教育滞后,低素质面临高诱惑、强竞争,引发犯罪和再犯罪;道德缺位,导致亚文化盛行,行为内控力、制约力弱化,放纵犯罪和再犯罪。改造罪犯压力剧增,监狱在解决自身矛盾中工作没及时调整到位,难以有效扼制重新犯罪和大要案的发生,已成为构建和谐社会过程中突出而尖锐的问题。     

第四代管理中的质量管理

当今企业在激烈的市场竞争中,共同面临的一个问题是,如何更快、更好地发展（即不断追求卓越）。第四代管理为解决这一问题提供了思路,其核心要素有：质量、科学的方法和所有人的团队。本文重点讨论第一个要素一质量。首先介绍了第四代管理中关于质量管理的基本思想：质量是管理的第一要素;解决工作中的问题关键在于改进系统。介绍了第四代管理对顾客的理解,特别介绍了“顾客对质量的定义”的四个方面的内容。最后讨论了第四代管理的质量战略——以顾客为焦点。     

企业经营中的品牌战略

:随着市场经济的发展 ,品牌战略在企业经营管理中的地位逐渐凸现出来。品牌战略取得成功的关键 ,在于提高企业的营销水平和产品本身的素质 ,进行科学的品牌定位 ,并不断推动牌品的升级成长     

非社会性行为：儿童社会化研究的新视角

儿童社会化中的行为与发展研究范畴,大多局限于儿童的亲社会行为和反社会行为,而忽略了对非社会性行为的研究。非社会性行为,是儿童社会化发展中的重要范畴。典型的非社会性行为主要表现为内向性行为和逃避性行为。虽然它们会随年龄增长而消失,但它们潜隐着问题障碍乃至反社会危机。为此,要充分认识儿童期行为发展的重要性,及时识别与诊断儿童早期行为发展,激活儿童内在的成长机制,尊重与信任儿童的自我建构性发展。要善于挖掘儿童潜能,帮助儿童增添成功体验,让他们发现并创造自己的有价值的生活。