From the Wembley Conference to the ‘McDonnell Amendment’: Labour's Leadership Nomination Rules

A recent change to the Labour party's nomination rules for leadership elections was the eighth such major modification of this brief clause in the party's rule book since 1981. These changes have provided a barometer of factional conflict over this period and indicate the importance of gate‐keeping powers in leadership selection. This article recounts the history of these eight rule changes. It shows how the proportion of Labour MPs (and later MEPs) required to nominate candidates in leadership elections has oscillated markedly, as the left has tried to reduce it while centrists have sought to increase it. The most recent change in 2017, when the threshold was decreased to 10 per cent of Labour MPs and MEPs, was a victory for the left. The article argues that the changes to Labour's nomination rules, while lower‐key than the extension of voting rights from MPs to ordinary members, have been just as significant.     

Electoral reform and the mirror image of inter-party and intra-party competition: The adoption of party lists in Colombia

The Colombian case offers a rare opportunity to observe effects of electoral reform where districting remains constant. Only the formula changed, from extremely ‘personalized’ (seats allocated solely on candidate votes) to ‘listized’: seats are allocated to party lists, which may be either open or closed. Electoral reform has effects on both the inter-party dimension (the number of parties competing) and the intra-party dimension (the extent of competition within parties). Consistent with theoretical expectations, the inter-party dimension features an increased number of parties in the low-magnitude districts and a decrease in the high-magnitude districts. On the intra-party dimension, the impact “mirrors” the inter-party: less competition in smaller districts, yet more in larger districts.     

Going Postal: How All-Mail Elections Influence Turnout

We examine the question of whether or not reducing the costs of voting by conducting elections entirely through the mail rather than at the traditional polling place increases participation. Using election data from Oregon, we examine whether or not elections conducted through the mail increase turnout in both local and statewide elections. Using precinct-level data merged with census data we also examine how postal voting may alter the composition of the electorate. We find that, while all-mail elections tend to produce higher turnout, the most significant increases occur in low stimulus elections, such as local elections or primaries where turnout is usually low. The increase in turnout, however, is not uniform across demographic groups. Voting only by mail is likely to increase turnout among those who are already predisposed to vote, such as those with higher socioeconomic status. Like other administrative reforms designed to make voting easier, postal voting has the potential to increase turnout. However, the expanded pool of voters will be limited most likely to those already inclined to vote but find it inconvenient to go to the polling place. This conclusion is consistent with the growing body of research that suggests that relaxing administrative requirements is not likely to be the panacea for low turnout among the disenfranchised.     

Electing the Electorate: The Problem of Prisoner Disenfranchisement

The issue of prisoner disenfranchisement is examined in the light of the recent decision of the European Court of Human Rights in Hirst v UK . It is argued that the arguments in favour of denying prisoners the right to vote lack plausibility. Prisoner disenfranchisement cannot be coherently defended on the justifications of punishment or on the grounds of risk. On the contrary, matters of principle and policy considerations favour the re-enfranchisement of convicted prisoners.     

累积投票制在中小股东权益保护中的作用

累积投票制的设立，可以通过增加中小股东参与公司决策的机会，弥补直接投票制的不足，实现股东地位的实质平等。防止大股东利用其持股优势控制董事会、侵害公司及中小股东利益。但是，由于累积投票制存在的缺陷，应当扩大其适用范围，进一步完善其适用过程中的具体的程序性规定，增强可操作性，以保障切实可行。同时。累积投票制度应慎重适用，并注重发挥其他配套制度的共同作用。才能更好地实现其保护中小股东权益的立法本愿。     

党委票决制的理性透视

党委票决制是当前一些地方正在大力试点的党委决策模式和制度设计。文章结合试点地区的经验,对票决制的内涵、票决制的运作、票决制的配套制度建设、票决制的价值意义、票决制运行中的困境等问题进行了概括分析,以期为当前深入推进的党委票决制提供理论和方法论支持。     

Immigrant enfranchisement in Latin America: From strongmen to universal citizenship

In order to explain non-citizen enfranchisement in Latin America, this article takes into account three dimensions: domestic (citizenship tradition, immigration levels, internal politics), global (international and bilateral agreements, human rights discourse) and regional (common markets, diffusion, geopolitics). The article identifies two main modalities: from the early twentieth century to the 1980s, when democracy was not a necessary condition and when national factors prevailed. Starting in the 1990s, democratization in Latin America has brought a new wave of non-citizen enfranchisement, this time with more influence of global and regional factors and, in various cases, in connection with external voting rights.     

Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States, 1948-2004

SUMMARY

This research updates, revises, and extends a forecasting equation of the presidential vote in the states. The original equation was composed of sixteen predictors available well before the election and estimated with data from 531 state elections from 1948 to 1988. The equation was empirically strong, based on objective predictors, and more parsimonious than previous equations. Reexamining the equation with 200 additional state elections from 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004 indicates that the equation remains well supported, but suggests several opportunities for improvement. A revised equation has a mean absolute error of 3.2 percentage points and correctly predicts 87 percent of all electoral votes. The extension of the analysis adapts the forecast equation to predict electoral vote winners, conducting a logit analysis that takes into account both the size of the state and the closeness of its previous election. This produces more accurate forecasts of both electoral vote winners in the states and the division of the aggregate national electoral vote.     

The UK's electoral reform referendum of May 2011

The UK's second nationwide referendum, held in May 2011, offers rich opportunities for analysing the dynamics of a referendum campaign. The articles gathered together in this symposium address three themes. The first concerns the determinants and dynamics of public opinion during a referendum campaign, the second relates to the potential for interaction between the referendum and simultaneous elections, and the third focuses on coverage of the referendum in the media. Following a brief outline of the background to the referendum, this paper introduces the contribution that each article makes to these themes.