Trumponomics and China-US Economic and Trade Relations

Since he took office,the new US president,Donald Trump,has unveiled his broad economic policy-now called Trumponomics.It emphasizes neoliberalism at home,less government regulations,more growth and weakening the welfare state.Internationally,Trumponomics embraces protectionism and nativism with a focus on US economic interests.Trumponomics caters to the lower-middle classes,a reflection of the country's current economic and diplomatic challenges.Trumponomics will bring uncertainty to China-US economic and trade relations.China should carefully study the policies of the Trump administration and prepare contingency plans.     

中美两国太空安全领域的互动

作为第四空间的太空是国际争夺的战略制高点。中美两国在太空领域有着广泛利益,涉及其国家安全与经济繁荣以及国际声望。中美两国之间的太空关系,事关国际战略稳定与平衡。尽管两国都主张太空安全,但是中美太空安全观大相径庭,在如何确保太空安全的方式上存在巨大差异。中国在安全困境下考虑和实施太空政策,谋求太空安全;美国则是推进太空武器化,保证美国治下的太空安全。两国在太空安全领域上进行了针锋相对的较量。美国使用传统守成大国对待崛起大国的方法,不仅研发更先进的(反)太空技术,而且也禁止中美太空合作,同时拼凑同盟,封堵中国(反)太空能力的发展。与美国相比,中国应对美国太空封堵手段相对较少,只有潜心发展自己的(反)太空能力,才能确保太空资产安全和国家安全。在外交场合下,在禁止太空军备竞赛与《禁止生产用于核武器及爆炸装置的裂变材料条约》、禁止太空武器化的国际条约与自愿性质的国际太空行为规范准则两组问题上,中美两国也进行了互不妥协的对抗。为降低两国在太空安全领域的对抗烈度,中美两国开启了民用太空对话与太空安全对话机制,同时,也不排除特朗普政府未来会启用中美外交安全对话机制处理太空安全问题。     

Iran and Turkey: not quite enemies but less than friends

The rise and subsequent erosion of friendly relations between Iran and Turkey was a result of their regional ambitions. While Turkey had long seen its secular system as presenting an alternative to Iran’s Islamic ideology, the alignment of their regional interests facilitated a rapport between the two states in the first decade of the twenty-first century. However, the Arab Spring proved divisive for this relationship as each state sought to advocate its model of government and secure a leadership role in the Arab world. The war in Syria widened the divide, as Iran’s long-standing support for the Bashar al-Assad regime could not be reconciled with Turkey’s desire to see President Assad out of office. Using a close reading of Persian and Turkish sources, the authors will analyse the Iran–Turkey divide, focusing specifically on how the Iranians have portrayed it as a clash of civilisations, citing Turkey’s so-called ‘neo-Ottoman’ ambitions as the primary cause.     

The CPGB,the Connolly Association and Irish communism, 1945–1962

This article examines the relationship between the Communist Party of Great Britain and Irish communists in both Ireland and Britain in the post-war era. It argues that the British party’s strategic interest in Ireland gradually waned as it became apparent that Irish communism would remain divided by the border. The article also argues how, in Britain, competition between the nationalist Anti-Partition League and the communist dominated Connolly Association led the latter to abandon cold war sectarianism and to adopt a ‘broad strategy’ championing civil rights in Northern Ireland. The article draws out the key role played by Charles Desmond Greaves in this process, whilst noting the importance of factionalism and external factors, notably the Irish Republican Army’s Border Campaign.     

Grasping the Syrian War,a view from Albanians in the Balkans

Reactions to the brutal Syrian War from European governments and Europe’s Muslims have been diverse and subject to many shifts over the past few years. This paper focuses on how Albanian political and Islamic religious figures living in the Balkans have come to interpret the war. I focus on discourse, the ways in which these different agents communicate with their audience, and the wider contexts they evoke. Government sources and religiously themed lectures delivered by prominent imams on the social networking site YouTube are used to assess these trends. The most obvious aspect of these debates is the ways in which these agents use the war to press their own agendas, the government to affirm their commitment to the “West” and an ethnicized view of Islam, while Islamic religious leaders use it to reconnect their audiences to a more cosmopolitan vision of their past. War thus becomes a catalyst for a resurgent contestation between different groups vying for control over what it means to be “Albanian” and “Muslim” in the twenty-first century.     

Authority in rebel groups: identity,recognition and the struggle over legitimacy

This article asks how rebel leaders capture and lose legitimacy within their own movement. Analysing these complex and often uneasy relations between elites and grassroots of insurgency is important for understanding the success or failure of peace processes. This is because internal contestation over authority between rival rebel leaders can drive a movement’s external strategy. Based on ethnographic research on the Karen and Kachin rebellions in Myanmar and insights from Political Sociology, the article suggests that leadership authority is linked to social identification and the claim to recognition among insurgent grassroots. If rebel leaders manage to satisfy their grassroots’ claim to recognition, their insurgent orders are stable. Failing this, their authority erodes and is likely to be challenged. These findings contribute to understanding insurgency and peace negotiations in Myanmar and civil wars more generally by showing how struggles over legitimacy within rebel groups drive wider dynamics of war and peace.     

One anthropologist’s answer to Glenn D. Paige’s question challenging peace studies

ABSTRACT

Glenn D. Paige pioneered in the revolutionary development of a far-reaching transformation of science, academia, and society from a killing to a nonkilling worldview, values, and attitudes. For six decades, anthropology has been accumulating scientific empirical evidence and rational arguments demonstrating that nonkilling societies exist, thereby rebutting the simplistic biological determinist myth that human nature inevitably and universally generates violence and war. Nevertheless, Hobbessians persist in their echo chamber advertising and celebrating the innate depravity of the human species as apologists for war and peace resisters. This systemic bias operates in synergy with the American industrial-military-media-academic complex and culture, the latter exemplified by a revealing comparison of war and football. With great intellectual courage and creative thinking, Paige critically challenges the anachronistic Hobbesian paradigm and offers a far more compelling and positive alternative for sustainable peace in the future.     

Wars of Succession

I analyze a model of bargaining, war, and endogenous leadership turnover in which (1) leader attributes affect war outcomes and (2) war can insulate settlements from renegotiation. Shifts in bargaining power caused by leadership turnover are endogenous and discontinuous, but sufficiently decisive war outcomes can solve the associated commitment problem. In contrast to other models where the shadow cast by a hawkish successor encourages moderation toward a dovish incumbent, the foreign state attacks instead—despite a dovish incumbent’s known preference for peace—using war to lock in a settlement that would otherwise be lost to future leadership turnover. I discuss the theory’s implications for widening the empirical scope of the commitment problem explanation for war to limited wars over relatively lower stakes and for integrating the politics of leadership turnover with the study of strategic rivalries.     

Towards food sovereignty: interrogating peasant voice in the United Nations Committee on World Food Security

The goal of the direct participation of food producer constituencies – and other citizens – is a key component of food sovereignty, the policy framework first launched by La Vía Campesina and engendering the much wider food sovereignty movement. In this paper, I outline the reasons why the reform of the United Nations Committee on World Food Security (CFS) can be regarded as historically significant to this goal. Focusing upon the CFS's aspirations for inclusivity, I outline a framework for interrogating the experiences of social movement activists representing food producer constituencies seeking to convert their formal right to participate in the CFS into substantive participation. Going beyond the capturing of their experiences, the framework also reveals the different ways in which their challenges in attaining substantive participation can be overcome, with a particular emphasis upon adjustments within the arena itself. The paper concludes with an overview of the research agenda suggested by Raj Patel (2009), amongst others, and alluded to further in the content of this paper.     

东盟争端解决机制的兴起、演进与启示

东盟争端解决机制自1996年正式形成以来,已历经1996年的《争端解决机制议定书》、2004年的《东盟促进争端解决机制议定书》和2010年的《东盟宪章争端解决机制议定书》三次变化。东盟争端解决机制的成因在于东盟区域一体化目标的推动以及“东盟方式”固有的制度缺陷。东盟争端解决机制的演进动因在于1996年的《争端解决机制议定书》缺乏操作性以及“规则导向”型争端解决机制在全球范围的兴起。东盟争端解决机制的三次变革可在争端解决机制的价值走向、模式选择及修正时机上给中国构建区域经贸争端解决机制提供一定的启示与借鉴。