Popular initiatives in Uruguay: confidence votes on government or political loyalties?

Among stable democracies, Uruguay is one of the most prodigious users of direct democratic devices at the national level. If we analyze the relationship between the share of “yes” votes received by any popular initiative and the share of votes received by politicians who politically supported it, we observe a strikingly high positive correlation of 0.9. Explaining this correlation is the central objective of this paper. Three alternative hypotheses are plausible: First, such a correlation could be a spurious association due to aggregation bias. Second, PI results could be reflections of economic conditions. Third, Uruguayans are extremely consistent in following their political parties' advice. This paper finds that when Uruguayans go to the polls to vote on a popular initiative, their vote choice is primarily the result of their party loyalty, rather than their reaction to economic conditions. In testing my hypotheses I rely on the following statistical methods: King's “Ecological Inference,” multivariate regression, and path analysis. The data come from seven popular initiatives in Uruguay since 1985 (133 observations).     

发展四川电子信息产业风险投资的对策

在IT时代 ,电子信息产业风险投资具有特别重要的意义。本文对发展电子信息产业风险投资的几个关键问题进行了思考 ,提出了构建四川电子信息产业风险投资发展结构体系的四个思路     

高新技术企业不同发展阶段的融资选择

高新技术企业投资具有高风险、高收益 ,且在其发展的各个阶段风险各不相同 ,所需要的资金数量也不一 ,这就决定了企业的融资方式及融资结构具有阶段性特征 ,前期融资主要是筹集主权资本 ,降低企业总体风险 ,而后期融资则需要兼顾资本结构优化和企业价值提高的需要。     

风险投资的风险分析与控制

风险投资有着高风险、高收益的特征。风险资本和风险投资机制的建立,可以推动高科技成果的转化,使社会资源的配置达到优化。实施有效的风险控制,有助于促进风险投资的不断发展和完善。风险控制包括选择、协议、辅导、退出四个阶段,而风险投资公司要想运作成功,还必须建立起一套有效的风险控制体系。     

Family Structure and Problem Behavior of Adolescents and Young Adults: A Growth-Curve Study

In the present longitudinal 3-wave study of 1274 adolescents and young adults, aged 12–24 at the 1st wave, it is examined whether youngsters from intact versus postdivorce families show long-term differences in internalizing and externalizing problems. Furthermore, possible differences in the development of this problem behavior between offspring from intact and postdivorce families are examined, i.e., possible differences in growth curves of internalizing and externalizing problems are investigated. Longitudinal multilevel analyses reveal long-term differences in internalizing and externalizing problems according to family structure. Adolescents and young adults growing up in postdivorce families display more internalizing and externalizing problem behavior than youngsters of intact families. The development of these 2 types of problem behavior does not differ by gender or family structure. That is, the shape of the growth curves of internalizing and externalizing problem behavior is similar for boys and girls and also for youngsters from intact and postdivorce families. Inge VanderValk is a Postdoc Researcher at the Department of Child and Adolescent Studies, Utrecht University, the Netherlands. She received her Ph.D. in 2004 from Utrecht University. Her major research interests include associations between adolescent adjustment and parental marital quality and parental divorce. Ed Spruijt is an Associate Professor at the University of Utrecht. He received his Ph.D. in 1983 from Utrecht University. His major research interests are the consequences of parental divorce and visitation arrangements on children. Martijn de Goede is an associate Professor at Utrecht University, Department of Methodology and Statistics. He received his Ph.D. in 1988 from Utrecht University. His major research interests are occupational and relational life courses of youngsters. Cora Maas is an Assistent Professor at Utrecht University, Department of Methodology and Statistics. She received her PH.D. in 1992 in Utrecht from Utrecht University. Her major interests are: multilevel analysis (theory and applications). Wim Meeus is full Professor of Adolescent Development at Utrecht University. He received his Ph.D. in 1984 from Utrecht University. His major research interests are personality, identity, and relationships in adolescence.     

Measurement Properties of the Communities That Care<Superscript>®</Superscript> Youth Survey Across Demographic Groups

Prevention science has produced information about risk and protective factors that predict adolescent drug use and related problem behaviors. This paper investigates the Communities That Care Youth Survey that measures multiple risk and protective factors. Using a sample of 172,628 students who participated in surveys administered in seven states in 1998, analyses were conducted to test the factor structure of these risk and protective factors and to test the equivalence of the factor models across five racial/ethnic groups (African Americans, Asians or Pacific Islanders, Caucasians, Hispanic Americans, and Native Americans), four grade levels (6th, 8th, 10th, and 12th) and both gender groups. Results support the construct validity of the surveys risk and protective factor scales and indicate that the measures are equally reliable across males and females and five racial/ethnic groups. Implications of these findings for science-based prevention planning are discussed.     

Correlates of the Co-Occurrence of Wife Abuse and Child Abuse Among a Representative Sample

The co-occurrence of domestic violence and child abuse is well documented (Appel, A. E., & Holden, G. W. (1998). J. Fam. Psychol. 12: 578–599; Edleson, J. L. (1999). Violence Against Women 5: 134–154). However, little is known about the correlates of co-occurring wife and child abuse. Analyzing data from the 1985 National Family Violence Survey (subsample N = 2733), this study identified risk factors associated with the co-occurrence of wife and child abuse. One-way ANOVA and chi-square analyses were conducted to compare characteristics of parents, children, and households among subgroups of families reporting some form of abuse. Key differences emerged between the three types of homes compared (i.e., those with child abuse alone, wife abuse alone, or wife and child abuse), indicating possibly distinct etiologies and processes. In particular, the co-occurrence of wife and child abuse was marked by less education, worse health, increased reports of depression, and increased husband drug use. Findings may be useful to practitioners and researchers interested in risk factors for different forms of family violence.The total does not equal 100% because certain states report more than one form of maltreatment per child.     

Reliability of Sexually Violent Predator Civil Commitment Criteria in Florida

The present study investigated the reliability of Sexually Violent Predator (SVP) civil commitment criteria under Florida's Jimmy Ryce Act. The purpose of the study was to determine if, independently, 2 evaluators would reach the same conclusions about the same client (n = 295). According to civil commitment criteria outlined by the United States Supreme Court (Kansas v. Hendricks, 1997), SVPs must display a mental abnormality predisposing them to sexual violence and a likelihood of future sexual violence. The interrater reliability of 8 DSM-IV diagnoses applied by evaluators to determine whether a client has a "mental abnormality that predisposes him to sexual violence" was found to be poor to fair (kappa = .23 to . 70). The interrater reliability of risk assessment instruments used to determine "likelihood of reoffense" was good (ICC = .77 to .85). The recommendations made by evaluators regarding whether or not to refer a client for civil commitment demonstrated poor reliability (kappa = .54). Implications for practice and policy are explored.     

The Impact of Confidence on the Accuracy of Structured Professional and Actuarial Violence Risk Judgments in a Sample of Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Some previous research indicates that confidence affects the accuracy of probabilistic clinical ratings of risk for violence among civil psychiatric inpatients. The current study investigated the impact of confidence on actuarial and structured professional risk assessments, in a forensic psychiatric population, using community violence as the outcome criteria. Raters completed the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients. Results showed that accuracy of both actuarial judgments (HCR-20 total scores) and structured professional judgments (of low, moderate, and high risk) were substantially more accurate when raters were more confident about their judgments. Findings suggest that confidence of ratings should be studied as a potentially important mediator of structured professional and actuarial risk judgments.     

更新理念强化监管切实保障区域金融安全

及时更新金融监管理念,加强和改进金融监管措施,建立起“四位一体“的有效监管体系,是防范、化解金融风险,确保区域金融安全、有效、稳健运行的重要保证.