Blind validation of postmortem interval estimates using developmental rates of blow flies

This study evaluated the use of different degree day (DD) models, developmental thresholds and developmental data sources for estimating postmortem interval (PMI) based on developmental rates of blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae). Blow fly evidence was collected from three mock crime scenes and sent for blind analysis of PMI. PMI estimates were calculated using averaging, single sine, double sine, single triangle, and double triangle models of DD calculation with minimum developmental thresholds of 0, 6 and 10 °C and Anderson's, Byrd and Allen's, Greenberg's, Nishida's and Kamal's developmental data sets. These estimates were compared with the actual PMI to determine which combination of DD model, developmental threshold and developmental data provided the most accurate estimate. For all three cases, at least one method gave a PMI estimation that was within 1 day of the actual date of death. There was no variability between PMI estimated using the five models of DD calculation. Overall, as lower developmental threshold increased, the PMI interval estimates increased. Depending on the developmental data set used, increasing the lower developmental threshold caused some overestimations of the date of oviposition, with estimates given that were prior to the actual death. Future PMI estimates should include error ranges, so that overestimation of PMI is avoided.     

社区青少年日常活动场所发展之路探究——对浙江省社区青少年日常活动场所的调查研究

近年来,青少年及家庭对社区青少年服务的需求强烈且呈现出多元化的发展趋势.现有供给能力不足是建设和发展社区青少年日常活动场所的直接动因.文章在调查研究的基础上,就青少年日常活动场所的定位、建设方式、机制等作了较深入地探讨.     

Survival analysis: A survey

This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.     

Detection of Gamma-Hydroxybutyric Acid in Various Drink Matrices via AccuTOF-DART*

Abstract: A new screening method for detecting gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) in drink matrices, using the IonSense, Inc. (Saugus, MA) direct analysis in real time (DART) ion source coupled to a JEOL exact mass time-of-flight mass spectrometer (AccuTOF), was validated and compared with the current screening methodology. The DART ion source allows for analysis of samples under ambient conditions with little to no sample preparation. Fifty drink specimens were spiked at levels of 1, 2, 3, and 4 mg/mL GHB, and analyzed on the AccuTOF-DART. Positive detection of GHB occurred for each of the samples at each concentration level, giving 100% accuracy for the samples tested. Twenty-five of the 50 drink specimens were spiked at 1 mg/mL GHB and tested using a color test known as the GHB Color Test #3. Only two of these 25 specimens tested positive for the presence of GHB, giving only 8% accuracy. Implementation of this new methodology as a screening tool for GHB analysis will quickly eliminate negative specimens allowing the examiner to focus analysis time on those that screened positive.     

A survival model with dependent competing events and right-hand censoring: Probation and parole as an illustration

Researchers are frequently interested in estimating the elapsed time until the occurrence of an event, such as an arrest following release from prison, dissolution of a marriage, and death following the onset of a disease. Estimation is often hindered by the occurrence of a competing event, which prevents the event of interest from being observed, and by limited follow-up periods. A parametric procedure developed in this paper is suitable for dealing with nonrepeatable competing events when the events are correlated and when independent righthand censoring also exists. Weak distributional assumptions are accommodated by using a Box-Cox transformation and by explicit modeling of heteroscedasticity. The procedure is applied to data pertaining to failure on probabation and parole.     

量刑程序改革语境中的量刑证据初探

在量刑程序改革的背景下，对量刑证据的研究显得尤为重要扣迫切。以证据为核心进行量刑裁判是量刑公正性和合理性的有效保障。量刑证据在证明对象、证明标准、证据能力规则等层面均表现出不同于定罪证据的特质。在死刑案件中，对量刑证据规则的设定以及量刑证据的判断和运用应该更加严格。     

民国时期恐怖活动研究

恐怖活动在中国延续了两千多年后,到民国时期已经比以往任何朝代都有过之而无不及。尽管当时的所有政权都制定反恐法规,采取反恐措施,希望将其消灭或纳入管控范围,但由于各政权自身条件的限制及实施恐怖活动的组织、个人所具有的强势特点,要达到目的并非易事。     

马克思主义时代化的路径探析

时代性是马克思主义的本质属性。作为不断发展的理论,马克思主义的每一次历史性飞跃,都带有深刻的时代烙印,都是马克思、恩格斯、列宁、毛泽东、邓小平等马克思主义者在马克思主义基本原理的指导下精细考察时代特征、准确把握时代脉搏、深刻洞察时代趋势的基础上,把对马克思主义的"文本解读"与对各个历史时期的"时代解读"相结合,不断实现马克思主义时代化的过程。"文本解读"与"时代解读"相结合,是实现马克思主义时代化的根本途径。     

时间抑或地域——宪法学研究之中国性

学术研究有其存在的历史境域。对一个学科而言,只有在贴合具体的历史境域下讨论该学科的学术研究,讨论该学科的发展方向时才具有意义。从我国历史上看,宪法学研究从清末开始,到现在已有100多年,无论其几经沧海桑田,但它之所以可以沿称到现在,自有它自立的关切方法、问题和理论体系。中国宪法研究的中国性问题,不仅涉及宪法学在中国的时间性差别问题,也涉及其地域性差别问题。     

警察行政协助理论剖析

为规范警察权的行使，解决目前其他行政部门频繁借用警力导致警察权滥用的问题，提出警察行政协助的概念。通过分析警察行政协助的性质、种类、原则、法律关系，以及与“非警务活动”、警察参与“联合执法”进行辨析，明晰警察行政协助的内涵，为制定警察行政协助制度奠定基础。