Measuring re-election prospects across electoral systems: a general approach applied to Germany

This research note presents a general approach for measuring the electoral safety of individual MPs across electoral systems that is based on predicted re-election probabilities estimated from multilevel logistic regression models. In contrast to existing measures, this method yields estimates on an intuitive and readily comparable probability scale, captures the higher sensitivity of re-election prospects to electoral change in the range of close races, and can accommodate regional differences in context conditions such as volatility. The paper implements the approach for two archetypical electoral systems – first-past-the-post (FPTP) systems and closed-list proportional representation (PR) – and estimates re-election prospects for the FPTP and PR tiers of the German mixed electoral system in all Bundestag elections since 1957. While the empirical data presented here is mainly illustrative, the concluding section highlights various questions that future research can address with the new measure.     

Recall in Germany: explaining the use of a local democratic innovation

While recall recently has gained slightly more attention from academia, the use of recall has hardly been under systematic scrutiny. Our study tackles this research gap and seeks to answer the following question: What combinations of conditions facilitate or constrain the use of local recall (in Germany)? It provides a qualitative comparative analysis of conditions of recall use in 11 German federal states. Building on theories of democratic innovations and previous studies on recall, we develop an analytic framework systematizing the conditions we include in our empirical analysis along three dimensions: institutional design, attitudinal context, and political context. While our article focuses on Germany, our analytic framework can be applied to study recall in other countries and on other levels, allowing for more systematic comparative research. Applying fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis, our article provides a comprehensive picture explaining the use of recall. It shows that political and attitudinal conditions serve as an equally important explanation for recall use as the institutional design of recall does. Our article gives new insights considering the conditions for the use of direct democratic instruments.     

Explaining subnational parliamentary scrutiny powers: A fuzzy-set analysis of German Landtage

While the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty has important implications for regional parliaments with legislative competences, most studies have focused on cross-country differences or examined the activities of regional parliaments at the EU level. This contribution shows the existence of substantial intra-country differences in the formal scrutiny rights of regional parliaments. We analyse how German regional parliaments (Landtage) have addressed the challenge of controlling their governments in EU affairs. Using fuzzy-set comparative qualitative analysis, we find that institutional and partisan factors (vote share in the second chamber, economic potential, and conservative governments) explain the differences found among German Landtage particularly well. Landtage with otherwise weak parliamentary prerogatives were successful in using the reform momentum to strengthen their rights in the field of EU policy. Combined with the party political salience of EU policy-making, the integration process has thus empowered formally weaker Landtage.     

Gender trouble on the German soccer field: can the growth of women’s soccer challenge hegemonic masculinity?

Soccer in Germany represents a social sphere for the expression of masculinity and features significant ideological battles over gender roles. This paper discusses whether the growth of women’s soccer can challenge the prevailing hegemonic masculinity in an area that represents an important economic aspect of consumer culture and social identity. Does women’s soccer have the potential to subvert existing gender norms and challenge dominant understandings of gender? While women’s soccer has seen some important areas of growth in Germany, there are reasons to remain sceptical about the subversive potential of women’s soccer. This article argues that the unholy trinity of the sports-media-business alliance is the root cause for the limitations women’s soccer faces in challenging hegemonic masculinity. This sports-media-business alliance has served as the structural framework that has shaped societal discourses about women’s soccer in Germany. This paper discusses three of those discourses: the evolution of the macro-historical discourse over the societal role of women’s soccer in post-World War II Germany; the discourse comparing men’s and women’s soccer and asserting the superiority of men’s soccer; and the discourse on the role of femininity in women’s soccer and the sexualization of the players.     

Voter mobilisation in the echo chamber: Broadband internet and the rise of populism in Europe

Can the diffusion of broadband internet help explain the recent success of populist parties in Europe? Populists cultivate an anti-elitist communication style, which, they claim, directly connects them with ordinary people. The internet therefore appears to be the perfect tool for populist leaders. This study shows that this notion holds up to rigorous empirical testing. Drawing on survey data from Italy and Germany, a positive correlation is found between use of the internet as a source of political information and voting for populist parties. By instrumenting internet use with broadband coverage at the municipality level, the study then demonstrates that this relationship is causal. The findings suggest that part of the rise of populism can be attributed to the effect of online tools and communication strategies made possible by the proliferation of broadband access.     

美国、德国隐私权宪法保护比较研究

美国和德国是世界上隐私权宪法保护比较成熟的国家,但是由于历史文化和法律传统的不同,两国隐私权的宪法保护在基本理念、具体含义、宪法保护方式和保护效力方面存在着很大的不同,比较研究两国隐私权的宪法保护对于我国隐私权的宪法保护的完善有借鉴意义。     

When Investors Enjoy Less Policy Risk: Divided Government,Economic Policy Change,and Stock Market Volatility in Germany, 1970‐2005

How does divided government affect the probability of economic policy change, and thus policy risk on financial markets? In contrast to the standard balancing model we argue that divided government, i.e., partisan conflict between the executive and the legislative branches, negatively affects the possibility of economic policy change. Using a simple spatial model we demonstrate that one should expect divided government to increase the probability of policy gridlock. Since divided government reduces the probability of economic policy change, financial markets can operate under lower policy risk in times of divided than in periods of unified government. For the empirical evaluation we exploit the fact that stock return volatility provides us with a measure of risk. If the gridlock argument does hold, stock return fluctuations should be lower under divided than under unified government. Our results confirm that divided government has a volatility reducing effect on the German stock market. This supports the view that divided government lowers policy risk.     

借鉴德国职业教育先进经验大力发展我国高等职业教育

我国高等职业教育在取得一定成绩的同时还存在诸如办学模式"克隆"、办学主体单一、办学理念模糊等弊端.德国作为世界高职教育的领先者,在多年的实践中形成了自身鲜明的办学特色.其办学模式的多样与差异、办学形式的改革与创新、办学过程的精益求精等先进经验都值得我国学习与借鉴.     

发展循环经济的法律保障研究

循环经济是一种新型的经济发展观。作为可持续发展思想的实现形式,循环经济的建立离不开法律制度的保障。分析借鉴德日等国的立法经验,我国的循环经济法制建设需在修改现有环境保护法律制度的基础上,制定循环经济基本法、综合法和专门法,形成完善的循环经济法律体系。     

德国康采恩法与我国企业集团法之比较

企业集团是具有独立法律地位的受支配企业统一管理的企业联合 ,不是民事主体。相反 ,单独的集团名称、集团章程和集团管理机构、子公司数量和企业集团资产的多少都不反映企业集团的本质特征。企业集团成员间权利义务的基础是经过登记的集团合同。集团合同中应当包括统一管理权的行使、对附属企业及其债权人、少数股东的保护等法定内容。在无合同约束的事实性企业集团中 ,支配企业不得向附属企业发出有损于附属企业利益的指令。