Macroeconomic performance,political trust and the Great Recession: A multilevel analysis of the effects of within‐country fluctuations in macroeconomic performance on political trust in 15 EU countries, 1999–2011

Recent cross‐national comparative studies have found no effect of countries’ macroeconomic performances on trust in national political institutions, once political explanations (most notably corruption) are taken into account. Although political trust is not determined by the comparison of national economic performance to other countries, it is argued in this article that it is affected by comparisons to their own past performance. In a multilevel, fixed effects analysis of Eurobarometer data (21 waves in 15 European Union Member States between 1999 and 2011) the extent to which within‐country variations in economic performance affect political trust longitudinally is tested. Three major conclusions are reached. First, within‐country, longitudinal changes in performance (growth, deficits, unemployment and inflation) affect political trust. Second, the impact of macroeconomic performance is stronger among the lower educated. Third, even in times of economic duress, budgetary deficits tend to undermine political trust.     

Peak Millennials: Three Reinforcing Cycles That Amplify the Rise and Fall of Urban Concentration by Millennials

The rise and fall of the Millennial generation congregating in central cities is a product of life course meeting unique historical context. Three reinforcing cycles harmonized before 2010 to maximize Millennial presence, and then will harmonize in 2020 to reduce presence. In 2015, the peak Millennial birth cohort passed age 25, with smaller cohorts to follow. Job opportunity that had sharply worsened following the Great Recession is reversing, with renewed job growth opening entry positions, and with less competition from smaller cohorts. In housing, Millennials were doubled up at entry levels of their housing life cycle, blocked by older peers who were unable to turn over their apartments for better homes. With renewal of new construction and home buying, stronger vacancy chains will again stimulate outflow. The combined effect of the three reversed cycles will reduce central concentrations of young adults. Preferences may persist for urban walkability but, freed of their former constraints, preferences will now be expressed through choice from a broader range of locales. Cities and suburbs can compete for Millennials passing age 30 with walkable districts, transit, and better schools and housing.     

Depression and attitudes to change in referendums: The case of Brexit

Depression is the most common mental illness and its profound impact on cognition and decision-making has implications for political judgement. However, those implications are unclear in the case of referendums offering a choice between status quo and change. On one hand, one component of depression is the kind of life dissatisfaction associated with voting for change. Yet cognitive models also portray depression sufferers as biased towards the status quo: they are less inclined to research change, more pessimistic about its benefits and more likely to exaggerate its potential costs. In this paper, we use data from Understanding Society to examine the impact of those cross-pressures on support for Brexit. Prior to the referendum, while life dissatisfaction and generally poor health predicted support for Leaving the European Union (EU), those diagnosed with depression were disproportionately likely to support Remain. Supporting our claim that the latter was a sign of status quo bias, this difference disappeared once the result was in and leaving the EU had become the widespread expectation. The study highlights the unexplored importance of mental health for political judgements, emphasises the multidimensionality of conditions like depression and illustrates the psychological role of status quo bias in referendum voting.     

The European Union and political behaviour: The shadow of the Great Recession

The symposium aims to analyse the politicisation of the European issue following the onset of the Eurozone crisis, in particular its impact on individual attitudes and voting both at the national and supranational level. By way of an introduction, we address the state of the art on the importance of the Eurozone crisis for EU politicisation, as well as outlining each article and its contribution. While our authors may sometimes focus on different dependent variables, they all speak to the question of whether the Great Recession made a lasting difference, and whether EU politicisation matters. Most articles are longitudinal, and test for changes due to the crisis (Dassonneville, Lewis- Beck and Jabbour; Ruiz-Rufino; Talving and Vasilopoulou; Jurado and Navarrete). But preoccupation with the Great Recession is also present in the articles assessing the political learning that unfolded from it (Ruiz-Rufino), or the ones which investigate whether EU effects can be detected during the post-crisis years (Talving and Vasilopoulou; Lobo and Pannico; Heyne and Lobo). Despite the diversity of approaches, and certain differences in findings, each article contributes to a major debate ongoing in the literature, especially three key debates which have arisen: the crisis’ impact on European party systems, economic voting, and the degree of legitimacy of democratic systems.     

Off-label Paediatric Drug Use for Juvenile Depression and the Clinical Trial Regulations 2004: The Impact of Available Protective Mechanisms

Across Europe, around one in four adults experience a mental health problem in any 1 year. It is estimated that 2–6% of children and adolescents suffer from depression and suicide is now the third leading cause of death in 10–19 year olds. Despite traditional Freudian teachings that children rarely suffer from clinically diagnosed depression, treatment figures for juvenile depression have soared in recent years. For adults, the current treatment trend, as advocated by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), is the use of Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors (SSRIs), such as Prozac. For children, efficacy of such treatment remains difficult to judge as all SSRI use in paediatric care remains ‘off-label’ or unlicensed. Notwithstanding this, in 2006 the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) advocated the use of Prozac within the EU for children from the age of eight, a position that reinforced the stance adopted by NICE in 2005. These recommendations have been made despite growing concern that many SSRIs have some serious side effects. In new legislation for paediatric medicines, that came into effect on 26th January 2007, the European Union (EU) has attempted to address several unresolved issues relating to children’s needs for medicines in Europe. This paper considers the position of off-label drug-therapy for juvenile depression, and assesses the effectiveness of available legal mechanisms that can protect juveniles from harm when involved in clinical drug trials, most notably the Clinical Trial Regulations 2004. It further reviews the new EU legislation and evaluates its likely impact.

俄国驻中国喀什噶尔领事彼得罗夫斯基与近代英俄大博弈

尼古拉·费奥多罗维奇·彼得罗夫斯基是俄国驻我国新疆喀什噶尔第一任领事,其任期正值近代英国与俄国的中亚大博弈时期.彼得罗夫斯基利用其在当地的影响力,精心编织情报网络,培训情报人员,收集新疆地区军事政治要情,为俄国推行对华侵略政策提供信息服务,并严密监视英国动向,协助俄国军队占领我国帕米尔地区.在经济方面,彼得罗夫斯基通过扩大俄国商圈、打压英国在新疆的贸易和扰乱金融体系等手段,帮助俄国扩大对新疆的贸易.此外,彼得罗夫斯基利用职务之便在我国新疆喀什噶尔及其周边地区大肆劫掠文物,并与俄国国内积极互动,为俄国考察者提供文物信息和物质支持,在此方面,也将英国视为最大竞争对手.在彼得罗夫斯基的苦心经营下,19世纪末20世纪初俄国在新疆地区的影响力得到极大的扩张,无论在政治、经济还是文物掠夺方面,相对于英国均占据了先机.     

The origins of redistributive policy preferences: political socialisation with and without a welfare state

Research on the impact of the macroeconomy on individual-level preferences for redistribution has produced varying results. This paper presents a new theory on the presence of an expansive welfare state during one’s formative years as a source of heterogeneity in the effect that macroeconomic conditions have on individuals’ preferences for redistributive policy. This theory is tested using cohort analysis via the British Social Attitudes surveys (1983–2010), with generations coming of age between the end of World War I and today. Findings confirm that cohorts that were socialised before and after the introduction of the welfare state react differently to economic crises: the former become less supportive of redistribution, while the latter become more supportive. The research sheds light on the long-term shifts of support for the welfare state due to generational replacement.     

Are Reemployment Services Effective? Experimental Evidence from the Great Recession

We examine an experimental‐design reemployment program implemented in Nevada during the Great Recession that required Unemployment Insurance (UI) recipients to: (1) undergo an eligibility review to confirm they were qualified for benefits and actively searching for work and, if deemed eligible, (2) receive job‐counseling services. Our results show that the program expedited participant exit from UI, produced UI savings that exceeded program costs, and improved participant employment outcomes. Analyses of program effects on the UI exit likelihood show that the program's effects are partly associated with increased participant exit up through the time when program activities were scheduled, reflecting voluntary exit of participants from UI to avoid program activities and disqualifications of participants who failed to meet eligibility requirements. In addition, the program induced substantial participant exit from UI in the period after participants fulfilled requirements and their interactions with the program had ended, suggesting that the job‐counseling services offered by the program may have helped participants to conduct more effective job searches. Our findings provide evidence that reemployment programs that combine an eligibility review with mandatory participation in job‐search services can be effective during recessions.     

Fiscal Crisis and Community Development: The Great Recession,Support Networks,and Community Development Corporation Capacity

Community development corporations (CDC) are a cornerstone of neighborhood improvement in legacy cities. Yet they face challenges that threaten their financial sustainability, challenges that grew exponentially with the Great Recession. This article examines the impact of the Great Recession on the revenue and survival of CDC in Baltimore, Maryland; Cleveland, Ohio; and Detroit, Michigan. An analysis of financial data from the National Center for Charitable Statistics from 2004 to 2011 highlights issues of industry contraction, revenue concentration and loss, and CDC survival. Interviews and examination of multiple secondary sources of information on CDC activity and support networks in each city further our understanding of the financial results. We find that the CDC industry in all three cities was severely impacted by the Great Recession and that the CDC support networks in each city had a significant intervening effect on the ability of CDC to adapt to the fiscal and service pressures created by the recession. We discuss the implications of the shared trends and the city-specific dynamics for the role of CDC in neighborhood improvement in legacy cities.     

Another look at E. P. Thompson and British Communism, 1937–1955

Examination of E. P. Thompson’s activism in the Communist Party (CPGB) has been limited. Some historians, basing themselves on his memories and interpretations of his 1955 biography of William Morris, have portrayed him as a dissenter, at best a loyal critic of CPGB policy. Others have deduced political conformity from his fourteen years membership of a declining organisation. This article reappraises the literature and reassesses the making and unmaking of a Communist intellectual. It explores Thompson’s contemporary writings – rarely exposed to critical scrutiny – and employs recently released security files to reconstruct the historian’s ideas and activity across the post-war decade. The article concludes that in these years Thompson remained a faithful supporter of the Soviet Union, the party line and ‘high Stalinism’. Khruschev’s ‘Secret Speech’ and the Russian invasion of Hungary did not validate pre-existing dissent. They were the pivotal factors provoking a rupture with the Stalinism Thompson had championed from 1942 to 1955.