当前国际战略形势分析

从大国战略态势、大国关系新变化、国际安全环境、中国对外战略等四个方面综合分析2006—2007年的国际战略形势。其中,作为“唯一超级大国”的美国,因霸权扩张过度,身陷中东尤其是伊拉克困境,其国际战略处境趋于被动。其他大国抓紧调整各自对外战略、加快自我发展。大国关系与国际安全环境均有新变化、更趋复杂。中国对外战略更为系统,中国外交整体推进、成效卓著。     

西部大开发与东西部联动法律规范的思考

西部大开发——东西联动是有序的,这个“序”就是法律秩序。其法律规范的构成:以国家立法的形式使西部大开发战略固定化、法律化,使西部地区获得更多的发展机会和东部地区的帮助成为一项法定的权利;东西联动的法律规范重点在新机制的培养(促进体制转换),应当确认、支持和保护特殊的投资诱导政策。西部各省区市的法规、规章要有差异性,要呈“分类指导”的态势,具有较深的区情切入;并要成为防止地方保护主义的有力武器。     

西部开发中民族文化保护论

西部开发作为经济、社会、生态、文化协调发展的系统工程 ,少数民族传统文化的保护、建设是其中十分重要的基础工程。西部开发也为传统文化的更新、转型提供了机遇。经济全球化与文化多样性的关系则是西部开发中民族文化保护、文化资源开发利用的文化语境。云南少数民族传统文化的保存现状及近年来实施的保护措施 ,印证着这个文化变迁进程的复杂性与丰富性。     

Endogenous economic voting: evidence from the 1997 British election

Using panel surveys conducted in Great Britain before and after the 1997 general election, we examine the relationship between voting behavior and post-election economic perceptions. Drawing on psychological theories of attitude formation, we argue that those who voted for Labour and the Liberal Democrats perceived the past state of the British economy under the Tory government more negatively than they had prior to casting their ballot in the 1997 election. Similarly, we posit that Labour supporters would view the future state of the national economy under Labour more positively than they had before the election. This indicates that, contrary to many assumptions in the economic voting literature, voting behavior influences evaluations of the economy as voters seek to reduce inconsistencies between their vote choice and evaluations of the economy by bringing their attitudes in line with the vote they cast in the election. It also means that voters’ post-election economic perceptions are, at least in part, influenced by and thus endogenous to their vote choice. This finding has two major implications: first, cross-sectional models of economic voting are likely to overestimate the effect of economic perceptions on the vote. Second, the endogeneity of economic perceptions may compromise the quality of economic voting as a mechanism for democratic accountability.     

Intimate Partner Violence as a Risk Factor for Mental Disorders: A Meta-Analysis

This article reviews literature on the prevalence of mental health problems among women with a history of intimate partner violence. The weighted mean prevalence of mental health problems among battered women was 47.6% in 18 studies of depression, 17.9% in 13 studies of suicidality, 63.8% in 11 studies of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), 18.5% in 10 studies of alcohol abuse, and 8.9% in four studies of drug abuse. These were typically inconsistent across studies. Weighted mean odds ratios representing associations of these problems with violence ranged from 3.55 to 5.62, and were typically consistent across studies. Variability was accounted for by differences in sampling frames. Dose-response relationships of violence to depression and PTSD were observed. Although research has not addressed many criteria for causal inferences, the existing research is consistent with the hypothesis that intimate partner violence increases risk for mental health problems. The appropriate way to conceptualize these problems deserves careful attention.     

Spectacularizing Crime: Ghostwriting The Law

Beginning with an examination of the process whereby punishment turns its point of application from body to subject, and its scene of application from public to private -- as Foucault outlines in Discipline and Punish -- this paper attempts to complicate Foucaults thesis of a shift from corporeal visibility to invisibility as it appears in his account of the withdrawal of punishment from a public, spectacular domain into the no less public yet private sphere of the prison by attending to the transformations of spectacle itself which accompanied this process of disembodiment. The embodied spectacle of punishment -- the states theatre of cruelty -- gave way to a disembodied discursive explosion of images of crime and punishment, and this process can be traced through the texts of Bentham (Panopticon Letters, Fragment on Ontology) and Dickens (Great Expectations). Foucaults dichotomy between the spectacle of public punishment and the disciplinary, non-spectacular prison overlooks the importance of images of crime and punishment which come to pervade public discourse and imagination as part of the installation of the disciplinary régime. Spectacularizing entails a move from the specific, embodied singularity of spectacle to the condition of a generalized, disembodied, and continual insistence: it is this that constitutes and characterizes the shift from spectacular sovereignty to disciplinary surveillance. This spectacularizing is akin to the spectre: some thing that remains difficult to name: neither soul nor body, and both one and the other (Derrida). The spectre haunting the nineteenth century was the criminal, and that centurys rationalizing of crime and punishment was based upon a fear of the spectral itself.     

Negative Life Events and Depressive Symptoms in Late Adolescence: Bonding and Cognitive Coping as Vulnerability Factors?

The objective of the present study was to examine the effects of parental bonding and cognitive coping in the relationship between negative life events and depressive symptoms in adolescence. A sample of 1310 adolescents attending an intermediate vocational education school filled out a questionnaire. Adolescents with a poor parental bonding relationship seemed to be more vulnerable to depressive symptoms in the face of adverse life events than adolescents with more optimal bonding styles. Cognitive coping strategies seemed to play an even more important role. The use of self-blame, rumination, catastrophizing, positive refocusing, and positive reappraisal appeared to be related to depressive symptoms. In addition, self-blame, rumination, and positive reappraisal seemed to have a moderating role in the relationship between the amount of stress experienced and depressive symptoms. Developing prevention and intervention programs aimed at the formation of optimal bonding relationships and teaching adolescents adaptive cognitive coping strategies seems advisable.     

Relationships Between Cognitive Strategies of Adolescents and Depressive Symptomatology Across Different Types of Life Event

The objective of the present study was to examine relationships between cognitive emotion regulation strategies and depressive symptomatology across different types of life event. A sample of 138 secondary school students filled out a questionnaire. They were asked to indicate their most negative life event ever. On the basis of their answers, 3 types of negative life event were distinguished: loss, health threat, and relational stress experience. No relationship was found between type of negative life event and depressive symptomatology. Significant relationships were found between type of negative life event and the cognitive strategies self-blame and other-blame. Adolescents with a health threat experience scored higher on self-blame, while adolescents with a relational stress event scored higher on other-blame than the other groups. Significant relationships were also found between depressive symptomatology and the cognitive strategies self-blame, rumination, positive reappraisal, putting into perspective, and catastrophizing. No interaction effects were found between type of negative life event and cognitive strategies, suggesting that relationships between cognitive emotion regulation strategies and depressive symptomatology are consistent across different types of life event.     

Attachment to Parents,Best Friend,and Romantic Partner: Predicting Different Pathways to Depression in Adolescence

Research indicates that insecurely-attached adolescents are at risk for depression, but little is known about factors that may influence or explain this vulnerability. The present study focuses on close relationships during adolescence and their association with depression. Specifically, the objectives were to investigate (1) the role of working models of specific attachment figures (i.e., mother, father, best friend, and romantic partner) in the prediction of depression; and (2) the existence of target-specific pathways to depression following relational stress. It was expected that the paths to depression would differ depending on the attachment figure under consideration. A total of 134 adolescents (n = 88 girls; Mage = 16.95 years; SD = .74) completed attachment questionnaires, a depression inventory, and a computer task consisting of hypothetical interpersonal vignettes and questions. Insecure attachment relationships with romantic partner, and for girls only, with mother, were uniquely predictive of depression. Insecurely-attached adolescents' tendency to make negative attributions in response to stresses fully mediated the attachment–depression association. These adolescents were found to ruminate when confronted with stresses involving romantic partner, which was also associated with depression. Results underscore the link between attachment, negative attributions, and depression. Staff Psychologist, Child Psychiatry Department at the Jewish General Hospital. Received PhD in clinical psychology from Concordia University. Research interests include attachment and adolescent adjustment. Professor of Psychology and Applied Human Sciences, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H4B 1R6. Received PhD in social psychology from Ohio State University. Research interests include close interpersonal relationships and adjustment. Professor of Psychology, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H4B 1R6. Received PhD in developmental psychology from Stanford University. Research interests include attachment and parenting in adolescence.     

INDIA'S MYANMAR POLICY AND THE ‘SINO-INDIAN GREAT GAME’

Recent literature has aimed to “deconstruct” the notion of a “Sino-Indian rivalry” in Myanmar. The argument is that China's leverage in Myanmar far outweighs India's, and that the Tatmadaw nevertheless prevents either country's manipulation of Myanmar. In contrast this article argues that the idea of a “Sino-Indian Great Game” still marks the Indian debate, thinking and policy on Myanmar. China's continued rise will remain a main driver behind India's Myanmar policy, and Myanmar will remain geostrategic relevant to India.

The article describes the historical legacy of India's relationship with Myanmar, discusses the role of China in Indian Myanmar policies, and examines the effects of Myanmar's democratization process. While the Myanmar playing field has changed, Indian perceptions of a “Sino-Indian Great Game” are lasting.