东亚格局与中日关系

本文所谓东亚格局,主要是指东亚地区中日美俄四大国所构成的地区大国关系的基本结构及其特征。中日关系与东亚格局相互交织、彼此影响。“9·11”事件后,东亚格局开始发生新变化。其特点之一是,在中日美俄四国关系中,中日关系处于最差状态,日本处境最为不利。这种局面几乎是半个多世纪以来第一次出现。其前景值得关注。     

A forensic international market survey of condom lubricants and personal hygiene products using ATR-FTIR coupled to chemometrics

Condom residues may be encountered in forensic investigations as traces in sexual assault or rape cases. Casework studies have shown the value of distinguishing condom residues from other types of personal products used by women. However, up to now, there has been no investigation of their chemical variability within an international context. This work employed attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy with chemometrics to provide objective characterisation of condom lubricants and personal hygiene products from the international market. 166 samples were obtained covering five major classes of products likely to be used by women. Principal component analysis distinguished most major classes based on their spectral profiles, with subsequent support vector machine models yielding discrimination accuracies over 90%. A two-step approach was subsequently developed and enabled both classification and a discrimination accuracy of 100%. This could provide greater confidence in chemical discrimination of residues from these products when conducting investigations and help assess the origin of the chemical profile obtained. Further testing using three validation sets produced an identification accuracy of 100% for generic classes, which may allow investigative leads to be more readily obtained from recovered evidence.     

特朗普政府对朝核问题的危机管理及前景研判

2017年的朝核危机实质上是特朗普政府实施边缘政策而带来的一场危机,即,通过极限施压迫使朝鲜在战争和让步之间做出选择,以推动半岛无核化进程。然而,特朗普政府对朝核问题的危机管理因朝鲜的外交对冲、美国国内政治因素的制约以及国际合作的缺失使双方谈判陷入僵局,美国国内甚至出现是否会默认朝鲜有核的争论。若要真正推动朝鲜半岛无核化取得实质性进展,特朗普政府的现实方案仍是设定有限目标,并由联合国安理会制定可逆条款,约束美朝不信守承诺的行为,以国际社会的担保减少美朝互信缺失带来的消极影响,加快推进半岛无核化的和平进程。     

Surveying support for child and youth political participation in Australia and New Zealand

Recent decades have witnessed increased empirical and policy interest in children’s citizenship, particularly since the ratification of the United Nations Declaration of Children’s Rights. However, support for children’s active citizenship is often hindered by the pervasiveness of discourses that characterise children as innocent, developing, and free from responsibility. Public and governmental decision-making largely excludes children’s consultation and contributions, often determined by age alone. To quantifiably assess the amount of public support for children’s political participation, we commissioned a Likert scale survey question on degrees of support for children and youth (across four age groups between 3 and 18 year olds) having the opportunity to influence government decisions, in the Australian and New Zealand 2016 versions of the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP). Analysis of responses to this question in relation to demographic survey data indicate variation in preferences for different age groups, and that age, gender, and political party preference of respondents were variables of significance for both nations. These variables point to potential predictors of attitudes toward political participation of children and youth which have relevance for policymakers and educators in relation to provision of programmes that will increase the engagement of children and youth in government decision-making.     

美国霸权的困惑

美国在新世纪这几年很是困惑 :实力越来越强 ,而国际形象则越来越差 ;“依附”美国的国家越来越多 ,而真正“效忠”美国的国家却越来越少 ;值得骄傲的事情越来越少 ,令人烦恼的事情越来越多。这些困惑实际上是美国霸权的困惑 ,其根源有二 :一是承担义务和责任的意愿越来越小 ,而霸气却越来越大 ;二是对合作的耐心下降 ,单边主义倾向上升。美国霸权的困惑实质上是全球化的困惑。全球化要求美国摒弃传统霸权行为 ,重视全球治理     

国际制度缘何重要——三大流派比较研究

国际制度缘何重要?现实主义、自由主义和建构主义都对这一问题做出了回答。现实主义认为,国际制度背后有一只“权力之手”在起作用,制度的重要性主要体现在对权力的服务作用上;自由主义从理性功能主义的角度出发,有力地论证了国际制度重要性的问题。罗伯特·基欧汉的“新自由制度主义”取得了里程碑性的成就,后经过莉沙·马丁等学者的补充完善,进一步发展成为以四种基本博弈模型为分析框架,以理性主义为基底的功能主义国际制度需求理论,初步回答了国际制度重要性的问题。“国际制度理性设计”、“制度治理”等开始成为这一领域新的研究纲领。建构主义认为国际制度必须有规范基础,国际制度的重要性不仅体现在促进行为体利益实现的功能上,还体现在对行为体身份和利益的建构上。通过对三大流派关于国际制度重要性的比较研究,本文认为,三大流派在“理论范式”的层面上会继续争鸣,在“具体研究纲领”的层面上会不断融合。     

从"存在"到"生成"——合作演化研究简评

合作演化理论基于进化博弈论和系统思维,综合了生态学、社会学、心理学及经济学的最新发展成果,从有限理性出发来分析参与者的策略选择,表明合作是从许多单个的意志的相互冲突中产生出来的。本文将合作演化理论置于复杂适应系统框架之下,初步探讨了合作演化理论及其研究方法对IR研究的影响和存在的不足。     

浅谈国际贸易规范

随着国际间贸易往来的日益广泛与频繁，国际贸易中的规范也成为理论界和司法实践中讨论的热点和重点。要实现国际贸易自由化和解决国际贸易争端，必须制定国际贸易规范；国与国之间要公平贸易和竞争，必须严格遵守和认真执行国际贸易规范；我国加入WTO，必须在国际贸易规范的框架内规范自己的贸易行为，使国际贸易规范能充分地显示出它的作用与力量。     

海洋法与国家海洋安全

海洋是人类生命的真正渊源!《联合国海洋法公约》确立了调整和支配全面利用海洋及其资源的规则，建立起一种全面、公平和可行的世界海洋新秩序和法律制度，是海洋法的新发展，是发展中国家的杰出贡献。它的许多规则和原则已经成为习惯国际法，为世界各国所遵守。但是，由于国际法是动态的，是谈判折中、相互妥协和协商一致的产物，海洋法公约在扩大沿海国的管辖权和缩小公海自由的调整过程中留下了余地和空间，也就是海洋法中的剩余权利问题。当今的海事安全挑战日益增多，包括更多非传统的威胁，例如针对航运的恐怖主义行为、贩运大规模毁灭性武器、海盗行为和海上持械抢劫、非法贩运麻醉药品、精神药物和核物质以及偷运人员和武器。自然资源的耗竭、海洋环境的恶化以及自然灾害也与安全议程直接相关．因为这些问题能够破坏数百万人赖以为生的自然基础，并对海上贸易以及渔业和旅游业等主要产业造成负面影响。海事安全的大多数挑战均波及全球，往往相互联系，并可能损害人类安全。为此，我们应认真研究和探讨，以期维护国家海洋权益，促进海洋法的发展。