“Rally Round the Flag” Events for Presidential Approval Research

Since Mueller's [Mueller, J., 1970. Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. The American Political Science Review 64 (1), 18–34.] pioneering study, students of presidential approval ratings have agreed that major events affect these ratings. Despite this consensus, there is wide divergence in the ways that scholars have selected events for inclusion in models of approval ratings. This inconsistency inhibits direct comparisons across studies and raises the possibility that results are contingent on those selection criteria. Thus, what we have learned about the impact of various factors that may affect approval may depend on the details of selection criteria. Practically, scholars analyzing presidential approval ratings for any theoretical purpose must construct a list of events themselves, which takes considerable time. We propose a set of selection criteria and construct a list of events from 1953 to 2006 that scholars can employ. We also demonstrate that the list of events generates empirical results that comport with extant findings in the presidential approval literature.     

乌鲁木齐“7·5”事件以来对新疆问题的回顾与反思

新疆问题正在慢慢地成为中国政府面临的最大的问题之一,阿富汗战争结束后美军进入中亚,西方敌对势力的直接或者间接插手中国新疆分裂独立问题,这一问题的严峻性日益凸显。新疆幅员辽阔,战略地位重要,资源丰富,国内外诸多因素决定了中国的和平发展之路注定不会平坦,继乌鲁木齐"7.5"事件后,未来一段时期要严防多股反华势力和民族分裂势力联手进行破坏活动。     

国外负所得税理论研究的十大启示

本文在梳理有关文献的基础上提出国外负所得税理论研究的十大启示,即:纯粹形式,还是不同变体;局部试验,还是全国计划;短期试验,还是永久性计划;运用静态分析,还是动态分析;理性决策的主体是个人,还是家庭;倚重利己行为假设,还是利他行为假设;暂时收入假说,还是持久收入假说;偏好工作,还是偏好闲暇;评价应遵循单维度,还是多维度;要公平,还是要效率。作者认为,这十大启示为我们设计适合中国国情的负所得税方案提供了重要借鉴。     

试论首因效应视角下的网络群体性事件防范

首因效应是由最初接受的信息所引起的心理倾向,它具有先入为主性、偏差误导性、影响持久性的特点。首因效应与网络群体性事件的多方面特征以及形成与发展紧密相关,通过首因效应的视角来探讨网络群体性事件的防范,定能产生良好的效果。     

关于应对县域突发融资事件的思考

2011年以来,受国家宏观政策调控和货币政策趋紧影响,少数企业资金链条绷紧、民间高息举债、银行融资不畅等深层次问题显现,最终导致了一些地方融资事件的发生。其中,东营市垦利县在当地部分企业融资事件发生后,妥善介入事件处理,为区域性金融危机的应急处置积累了丰富的经验。防止类似融资事件的发生,必须引导中小企业把握好国家信贷政策,积极改善金融服务,规范民间资本的合理流动,同时进一步健全完善地方担保体系。     

我国校园突发事件影响因素分析

近年来,我国校园生存和发展的环境和条件在不断的发生变化,一些突发事件扰乱了校园内原有正常的教学、科研秩序,同时也威胁到学校广大师生的安全。校园突发事件其复杂性让学校管理者感到难以把握,但这并不意味着校园突发事件就不能够被预防和控制,关键在于要摸清突发事件的本质,掌握其规律,从而为管理者的预防、应对提供有力的科学依据。     

Antecedents and Consequences of Psychiatric Disorders in African-American Adolescents

This study included three waves of data, collected from approximately 890 African-American children and their families. Antecedents and consequences of psychiatric disorders among this population were examined. Children’s temperament, pubertal timing, and experience of stressful life events were tested as antecedents of psychiatric disorders. Several aspects of school functioning were then tested as consequences of psychiatric disorders. In addition, children with a single psychiatric disorder and those with comorbid disorders were statistically compared. Results showed that (1) children with at least one disorder, compared to those with no disorder, exhibited significantly more difficult temperament, experienced puberty earlier, and underwent greater numbers of stressful life events; (2) those with at least one disorder had significantly poorer school outcomes than those with no disorder; (3) children with comorbid disorders, compared with those who had only one disorder, displayed lower educational aspirations and poorer school commitment.

Elements of Negativity: Volume and Proportion in Exposure to Negative Advertising

Recent studies contend that negative advertising benefits voters. However, these studies only measure the volume of negativity in campaigns, often relying on survey data on voter behavior coupled with estimates of negative ad exposure. Theories of information processing indicate that the proportion of negativity may yield influences spanning a range of judgments related to candidate construction and voting behavior, yielding effects that are different from the influence of sheer volume. Thus, I argue that the proportion of negativity also has an influence, and that it is likely more often to be detrimental. I examine this claim using survey data and conclude that prevailing accounts of the effects of negative advertising campaigns are underspecified and, as a result, potentially overly optimistic. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

从执到觉：文化意向超越中的道德自觉

在全球化中形成的后现代流动社会,“自有永有的我”何以可能.私人世界在苦苦抵抗文化和意识形态的入侵中,不断重新塑造“先验自我”,不断孕育和抛弃新的文化和价值世界.“好生活”的绝对化永恒和相对化虚无取向的合理性都已终结.“实践的唯物主义”所内蕴的辩证的否定的实践理性精神及其“中间偏左”的致思路经和价值选择,要求把美当作目的,把美德当作生活,把正当作为策略.这就是道德自觉.     

大学生不良亚文化现象及其应对措施

大学生不良亚文化现象主是由社会不良环境、高校教育的弊端、家庭教育的缺失和大学生自身因素共同作用产生的后果,对大学生产生了诸多负面影响。因此,我们需对症下药,从社会、高校、家庭和大学生自身的角度出发,通过大力宣扬中华民族优秀传统文化,加强对文化市场的监督与管理,优化家庭环境等措施,减少乃至消除大学生不良亚文化现象带来的严重危害。