中日韩自贸区的可行性与经济周期规律

自2002年中日韩自由贸易区的构想提出以来,学界和决策部门对其建立的可行性仍持怀疑态度。本研究率先采用惩罚性样条滤波（Penalized Spline Filter）对中日韩实际产出变量进行分解,计算了周期项的相关系数和滚动相关性并检验了格兰杰因果关系,探讨建立三国自贸区的可行性。实证研究结果表明：中日、中韩间同期相关度低,但日韩间具有显著的同期相关性,并自1998年趋强,三者之间无格兰杰因果关系。因此,笔者认为从经济周期的协动性角度来看,建立中日韩自由贸易区的时机尚未成熟。建议可以先尝试建立日韩自由贸易区,逐步推进中日韩自贸区进程。     

也谈南海断续线的法律性质

南海断续线的法律性质对于澄清南海问题的实质及问题的解决具有重要意义。综合各种因素考虑,其作为岛屿(礁)归属线的性质可以确证,而海上国界线、历史性水域线及历史性权利线等表述均存在瑕疵,为巩固我国对线内水域的权利主张,除岛屿(礁)归属线外,将其同时界定为可管辖水域线较为可取。     

农村留守妇女的社会支持网构成研究——基于16省66县2414名留守妇女的调查

社会支持网是正式的社会保障体系的一种补充。在工业化、城市化的浪潮中,大量青壮年农民进城务工,传统的"男耕女织"演变为"男工女耕",农村留守妇女成为新农村建设的主力军,不得不重构自己的社会支持网。然而,目前国内很少有关于农村留守妇女的个体社会支持网构成的实证研究。本文通过对16个省份2414名留守妇女的抽样问卷调查资料系统考察留守妇女的社会支持网的构成。调查发现:丈夫仍然是"缺席"的户主,构成留守妇女情感支持网、财务支持网的重心;"娘家人"在留守妇女社会支持网中的重要性超过了"公婆",尤其在情感支持和财务支持方面;邻居、朋友都是留守妇女日常交往的主要对象,邻居还对留守妇女的生产活动提供帮扶,而朋友则是留守妇女情感倾诉的主要对象之一。亲属倾向于情感支持、财务支持,而非亲属倾向于交往支持。     

Trends and mechanisms of corruption in South Korea

Corruption remains one of the key obstacles to democratization and good governance. Given the nature of the subject, corruption is notoriously difficult to study. International comparisons and rankings of good governance such as the World Bank World Governance Indicators, the Bertelsmann Sustainable Governance Index, or Transparency International's Global Corruption Index are very useful for providing the big picture on corruption. To understand trends and mechanisms of corruption, however, it is necessary to conduct case studies on both successful and failed cases of anti-corruption policies. This paper investigates the successes and challenges of the fight against corruption in South Korea since the beginning of democratization in 1987. The investigation shows that Korea has generally been successful in controlling corruption. The paper argues that the remaining problems can be largely explained by the legacy of authoritarian rule and the undermining of state autonomy through the concentration of economic power.     

The first woman in the process of book production in Livonia: the case of Ursula Krüger and Daniel Hermann

I present the first case from the history of early modern Livonia, when a woman participated in the editing and publication of a printed book. Ursula Krüger, wife of Prussian–Livonian humanist Daniel Hermann, illustrates the wider perspective of non-aristocratic women’s activities involving book production in the geographical periphery of humanist culture, Riga, rather than in the heart of European humanism. Her story also illustrates the ability of women to collaborate as an editor, both as a learned woman who could compose Latin dedications and a businesswoman who could financially and organizationally engage in publishing books.     

地区安全治理的未来:走向亚洲协调

作者首次提出了"亚洲协调"的概念,讨论了亚洲协调对未来亚洲及太平洋地区安全治理的必要性和长远性。尽管最早的主要国家之间协调(concert of powers)的理论与实践是19世纪的、欧洲的,但是,关于主要国家之间协调(不仅是大国协调)的一般理论却同样可以运用在解决21世纪的亚洲(以及太平洋)的严峻安全挑战和困境上。这些挑战和困境在未来可能会进一步演化为严重的大国之间的对抗甚至冲突。更重要的是,亚洲协调将注定会阻止战争、实现长期和平及维持本地区的经济活力。也就是说,如果亚洲协调明智地和有效地建立并运作起来,到2079年,亚洲以及太平洋将拥有一百年的和平,如同欧洲在1815-1914年拥有的百年和平。从1979年到现在,亚洲地区已经享受了接近四十年的和平。在过去二十多年建立起来的地区或者跨地区的论坛、会议、组织和制度等,反映了治理亚洲地区的权力转移的企图和努力;尽管这些安排相互重叠、尚未彼此兼容,甚至相互竞争,但我们完全可以把它们当做未来亚洲协调的基础。虽然目前的地区安全治理仍然由美国及其同盟体系占据主导地位,但美国也不得不重视复杂的安全地区主义。有不少人建议美国应该以亚洲协调作为未来解决与中国关系的方案。中国已经为建立在经济发展基础上的亚洲和平做出重大贡献。中国已与美国建立"新型大国关系"回应美国的"转向亚洲"。中国在亚洲协调中的地位是中心的和关键的。     

西北农村留守妇女社会支持网络对其心理健康的影响:来自甘肃省的调查发现

本文旨在了解西北农村留守妇女的社会支持网络状况及心理健康状况,并探究其社会支持网络特征对心理健康的影响。通过抽取甘肃省311名农村留守妇女为被试,采用社会支持网络量表和SCL-90量表进行调查,结果发现西北农村留守妇女的社会支持网络表现出规模偏小、强关系成员占多数、异质性较低、趋同性较高的特征;西北农村留守妇女群体的心理健康水平显著低于成年正常女性。此外,研究还发现西北农村留守妇女社会支持网络规模对其心理健康具有显著的负向影响,网络异质性、趋同性与其心理健康也有一定的相关关系。     

近10年唐宋妇女史研究的回顾与反思

近10年来,唐宋妇女史研究取得了累累硕果,发表论文专著百余篇,涉及诸多层面,主要有妇女地位问题、妇女生活、特殊群体妇女研究等方面,但也存在诸多不足,仍需要加强研究。     

‘My private kingdom and sometimes my private jail’ The meaning of home in the lives of Bedouin women: changes in the home and social spaces and their implications for Bedouin women

Home has always been significant in the lives of Bedouin women. At times it has been considered a ‘private kingdom’ – an intimate space, a jurisdiction, a sphere of influence and a space of creativity and well-being. In other periods it has been perceived as a ‘private jail’ – suffocating and limiting. The Bedouin communities in southern Israel, which are part of the country’s Arab-Palestinian population, are undergoing major changes – cultural and social, as well as in the form of settlement – imposed largely by the state. The external form of the Bedouin home has changed too, from a tent to a cement-block house, from an open structure to a closed one, from being part of the open space of the desert to being a limited space in a neighbourhood. To understand the changing meaning of home for Bedouin women during this transition, I conducted a narrative study with 30 women who live today in permanent settlements, but who represent three generations that correspond to three periods of settlement and three housing types. I found that each generation ascribes different meanings to the home.     

朝贡体系下古代东亚秩序形成与维系的内在逻辑——批判地借鉴英国学派的分析方法

古代东亚秩序的形成与维系，同历史悠久的朝贡体系有着直接的关系。因此，要有效揭示古代东亚秩序的内在逻辑，应当批判地借鉴以历史主义见长的英国学派的分析方法，探讨朝贡体系的运行机制和内在本质。在古代，中国与朝鲜长时段的朝贡体系实质上是一种由中国主导并以其特有文化为基础、周边诸政权普遍认可和积极参与的特殊国际制度。就中国而言，完全独立的政治体制、自给自足的经济结构、等级制的世界观，使其对外部的需求仅限于其他政权对其至高无上地位的承认及其对相关制度安排的服从。而对周边诸政权来说，只有与实力超强的中国建立朝贡关系，它们才能获得合法性和安全保障，并取得与中国贸易的机会，从而实现生存与发展两大目标。由此可以得出如下结论：在缺乏文化共识的前提下，由地区强国主导，可以促成某种功能性的国际制度，使地区秩序得以维护，并在交往过程中反向促成文化认同。这一结论修正了英国学派关于共有文化与国际制度的关系的观点。