The 2012 United States election and the implications for East Asia

Abstract

The 2012 election resulted in a major victory for President Obama and while his Democratic Party improved its Congressional strength, the House of Representatives remains under Republican control. The election revealed the depth of America's political and voter divisions with each party showing dramatically different areas of strength and weakness. Yet the election did not hinge on foreign policy leaving the Obama administration likely to continue most of its earlier policies toward East Asia as marked by the multilayered ‘pivot’ toward Asia. Relations with China and North Korea are likely to remain difficult to manage while US–ROK links should be far smoother. Of particular concern is the economic sluggishness and rising nationalism in Japan which could well cause bilateral problems with the US and regional problems with Japan's neighbors, including US ally, South Korea. And at home the bipolar divisions over how best to deal with America's economic revitalization could well impede US abilities to exert a convincing multi-dimensional role in the region.     

Embedded policy preferences and the formation of international arrangements after the Asian financial crisis

New bilateral and multilateral arrangements emerged after the Asian financial crisis in the areas of financial assistance, financial regulation, and exchange rate stabilization. Strikingly, however, very few such arrangements emerged at the regional level. This paper argues that (1) the success of bilateral and international arrangements was the result of policy preference compatibility among East Asian countries and (2) the countries’ policy preferences can be explained as a function of their financial system features (securities-market-based or bank-credit-based) and external balance positions (capital-dependent or capital-sufficient). Although this framework cannot predict whether countries will agree on a particular policy proposal, it can explain the diversity of their proposals, the likely lines of conflict, the nature of their compromises, and why certain proposals succeed (or fail) even without the strong support (or opposition) of major powers.     

中美股票市场经济周期中的行业效应差异及成因分析简

本文分析了过去15年来中国股票市场在经济周期的四个不同阶段的强势行业的表现,并与美林模型关于美国股票市场在经济周期中不同阶段的行业效应进行了比较。美林模型对美国股票市场行业效应的分析,是基于美国的经济结构和经济周期特点而展开的。本文分析认为行业效应差异的成因主要在于中美两国在经济结构和周期波动特征方面的差异,指出中国资本市场在过去的经济短周期中,行业效应与投资驱动的经济结构和周期特征高度相关。     

菲律宾、日本和韩国反美军基地社会运动比较研究

美国驻在海外他国的军事基地，一直以来是国际政治中的焦点所在，本文试从美国军事基地驻在国民众反基地的社会运动视角入手，研究其对美军基地的存废的影响程度。通过对菲律宾、日本和韩国3国反基地社会运动的组织、过程以及绩效的比较，以获得对反基地社会运动的作用与不足的更为深入的认识。     

The European Trips-Plus Model and The Arab World: From Co-Operation to Association— A New Era in the Global IPRS Regime?

The advocation of stronger and higher levels of Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs) protection has been on the rise in recent years, particularly since the establishment of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 1995. Although its establishment signalled the beginning of a new phase in the protection of IPRs internationally, no more than a decade later, it is seen that such a regime is still undergoing a number of significant changes. In this regard, the rise of bilateralism and the retreat of multilateralism resulted in the so-called ‹TRIPS-Plus’ recipe in which developing countries are increasingly giving way to the demands of the industrialised countries through incorporating higher levels of IPRs protection domestically. Although the USA has often been viewed as the primary advocator and enforcer of the TRIPS-Plus recipe globally, this article shows that in fact the European Union (EU) advocated the TRIPS-Plus recipe long before the USA. Thus, this article discusses the case of the European TRIPS-Plus model with the Arab World as a clear demonstration of such a trend. Developing and Arab countries are now faced with two determined superpowers acting at both the unilateral and bilateral levels to achieve their desired higher standards of IPRs protection worldwide. This will further erode the flexibilities of the TRIPS Agreement, and will entail grave repercussions for both the developing and Arab countries. LLM, PhD, Lecturer in Law, University of Central Lancashire (UCLAN), UK. The author may be contacted at mel-said@uclan.ac.uk     

国际形势变化的两重性

2003年美国发动伊拉克战争推动了世界形势变化。形势变化对我国的影响是两方面的:机遇与挑战并存,机遇大于挑战。战争显示了超级大国反恐的两重性及力量的两重性。美欧关系出现转折,矛盾趋向深化与扩大,但双方仍需要继续合作。以联合国为代表的国际秩序的作用受到挑战。美国单边主义行为未能动摇联合国的存在,但改革联合国的必要性也在上升。发展中国家在国际格局中处于弱势,部分国家被边缘化。但占世界人口半数以上的主要发展中国家已开始走上振兴之路。     

Democracy promotion and the challenges of illiberal regional powers: introduction to the special issue

This special issue examines Western efforts at democracy promotion, reactions by illiberal challengers and regional powers, and political and societal conditions in target states. We argue that Western powers are not unequivocally committed to the promotion of democracy and human rights, while non-democratic regional powers cannot simply be described as “autocracy supporters”. This article introduces the special issue. First, illiberal regional powers are likely to respond to Western efforts at democracy promotion in third countries if they perceive challenges to their geostrategic interests in the region or to the survival of their regime. Second, Western democracy promoters react to countervailing policies by illiberal regimes if they prioritize democracy and human rights goals over stability and security goals which depends in turn on their perception of the situation in the target countries and their overall relationships to the non-democratic regional powers. Third, the effects on the ground mostly depend on the domestic configuration of forces. Western democracy promoters are likely to empower liberal groups in the target countries, while countervailing efforts by non-democratic regional powers will empower illiberal groups. In some cases, though, countervailing efforts by illiberal regimes have the counterintuitive effect of fostering democracy by strengthening democratic elites and civil society.     

“朋友·伙伴”意象下美国台海政策的局限—以美国对“入联公投”的政策态度为例

美国长期以来对台湾形成了“朋友·伙伴”的固有意象。在美国和台湾针对“入联公投”的博弈中，美国不断强渊“入联公投”不影响美台“朋友”与“伙伴”关系的性质，也没有对陈水扁当局采取有实质意义的惩罚措施，使美国的政策有不少保留的空间。美国对“朋友·伙伴”意象的盲目认知和坚持，无法阻止台湾某些政治人物和“台独”势力的挑衅行为，无法取信于中国政府和两岸人民，也不利于美国政府的决策者加深对台湾问题重要性和敏感性的认知，不利于台海地区长期的和平、稳定与发展。     

US Intervention in Colombia: The Role of Transnational Relations

In July 2000, US President, Bill Clinton, signed into law the aid package popularly known as ‘Plan Colombia’. Foreign policy analysts examining the ‘US drug war’ have generally focused upon the perceived national security interests of the US state and/or the intermestic nature of domestic politics, or the economic interests of an imperial US state in explaining US drug policy. I posit that the development, initiation and implementation of Plan Colombia cannot solely be understood through these various nation‐state paradigms, as this process was aided by, and facilitated through, an incipient transnational state. The emergence and consolidation into power of a neoliberal state within Colombia, the role of transnational lobbying by US and Colombian policy‐makers, as well as the influence of transnational corporations all played instrumental roles in the initiation, development and implementation of Plan Colombia.