美国拜登总统的国家安全战略思维

领导人的国家安全战略思维界定了本国的核心战略意图，并影响国家安全战略的制定及其实践。领导人的国家安全战略思维、策略手段信念与安全战略动员，能够塑造国家安全战略实践的政治过程。领导人所受结构约束的程度与战略情境的不确定性，是影响其国家安全战略塑造能力的重要因素。拜登对美国国家安全环境持有负向认知，将国家安全威胁来源主要界定为“挑战现状”大国与全球安全议题，并因此力图实现美国在安全、经贸与价值观维度优先的目标，进而倾向于采取低安全议题、价值观外交以及后发制人式与多边合作式的安全战略手段。拜登不仅在战略议程设置和安全团队结构中处于核心位置，而且当前美国面临复杂的内外部环境，也确保其得以高效输出自身的战略理念。通过将拜登对俄罗斯、中国的安全信念与当前美国对外政策进行匹配，可以验证领导人塑造安全战略能力的推论。系统分析拜登总统的安全观，并对理解美国外交政策和安全战略的现状与趋势以及思考中美关系的发展方向具有启示意义。     

The origins of bureaucracy: an anthropological perspective

Many decades have passed since the first appearance of Max Weber's seminal study, in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft , of the origins and characteristics of bureaucracy. His analysis was, naturally, dependent on the existing knowledge of his day; but the growth and maturity of archaeology and anthropology as academic disciplines have shed much new light on the historical and social contexts in which bureaucratic organizations emerged. This article, using Sumerian civilization as a case in point, summarizes much of what we now know about the conditions under which bureaucracy first originated and flourished. In so doing, it identifies several major human developmental and social transformations—the hominid revolution, the agrarian revolution, and the urban revolution—which played vital roles in the evolution and expansion of the bureaucratic form of organization.     

The US discourse on political Islam: is Obama's a truly post-‘war on terror’ administration?

In this article, I examine the legacy of the discourse on political Islam in the context of George W. Bush's ‘war on terror’, reflecting on the role this discourse has performed in constructing and affirming the United States' self-identity as a beacon of ‘democracy’, ‘progress’ and ‘modernity’, in contradistinction to an Islamist ‘other’. It will evaluate the three most prominent manifestations of the modern rationalist paradigm in relation to the ‘war on terror’ discourse: the tendency to ‘ideologise terror’; the tendency to conflate Islamist movements and view them solely within a security/counterterrorism framework; and the tendency to employ double standards when distinguishing between what is regarded as legitimate and illegitimate uses of political violence. This article will then consider to what extent it is appropriate to label the period since the Obama election as a truly ‘post-war on terror’ politics.     

More continuity than change? US strategy toward Cuba under Obama and Trump

This article examines the policies implemented by both the Obama and Trump Administrations toward Cuba to evaluate the claim that the ‘Thaw’ of relations between Washington and Havana represents a significant change in US foreign policy toward the island nation. Despite the appearance that the change in policy is a fundamental shift, I argue that the changes in US policy toward Cuba under both Obama and Trump represent changes in the means for pursuing the same historical objectives pursued by the Washington for the past few decades. In other words, the overall strategy and objective of US hegemony in Cuba is the same, with the only change being the means for achieving these ends. The central implication of this is that the ‘Thaw’ in relations between Cuba and the US represents a new, more ‘consensual’ means to instigating the same objective of provoking American-orchestrated political, economic, social and ideological changes in the island nation.     

Analysis of Western Countries' Anti-globalization

Anti-globalization trends are in play in the US and Western Europe where electorates are recalcitrant to allow immigrants into their societies,national sovereignty is sought in certain geographic areas,and the national mood seeks to suppress newly rising countries' trade and development.The continuation of economic downturn in Western countries is reinforced by their internal wealth gap and external competition.As capitalism's demand for profit is now being critiqued along with the emergent profit prospects to be delivered by pending technological progress,the temper of the times could temporarily slow down but not reverse globalization.Timely discussions about reform of international economic order and about an effective national development model should seek sustainable solutions for healthy,stable globalization and development of the world economy.     

Geopolitics of Nuclear Hypertrophy. America,the Bomb and the Temptation of Nuclear Primacy

The United States’ grand strategy has consistently been marked by a distinct tendency toward nuclear hypertrophy. Especially the inherent difficulties in extending deterrence to its allies and friends, compounded by the geopolitical characteristics of the US as an unassailable ‘insular’ fortress off Eurasia, have generated, rather paradoxically, a strong incentive for Washington to pursue a wide margin of nuclear superiority, if not nuclear primacy. This has implied, in turn, the deployment of redundant arsenals, robust counterforce capabilities and even a ballistic missile defence. Significantly, not even the Obama administration, though solemnly committed to nuclear disarmament, abstained from embracing a very ambitious modernisation program of American nuclear forces.     

The phonology of Slavic loanwords in Lithuanian

Since 9/11, Washington has viewed the new Europe as a protégé of the United States, whose role is to repair the political bridge across the Atlantic. Whereas the lure of the United States has started to weaken in Central European countries, the Baltic states have remained the most trustful new Europeans from Washington's point of view. Nonetheless, the Balts have not felt comfortable with the new European label. They have seemingly begun to define themselves as something special and have aspired to a voice of their own. Instead of being merely protégés of the United States, the Balts are transforming themselves into intermediaries between Brussels and Washington.     

美国信息安全最新发展综述

美国总统奥巴马执政以来出台了一系列网络安全战略,使之成为美国国家安全战略的一部分。国家层面的战略计划、法律法规也相继出炉,体现了美国将迎来信息安全政策的重大调整。近两年以来美国的信息安全战略部署和信息安全立法动向,为我国的信息安全战略调整提出了几点借鉴的启示,即我国应加快制定信息安全立法规划,加强对国家信息基础设施的保护和明确国家在发生重大安全事件时可以对网络进行管制。     

Bill Passage Speed in the US House: A Test of a Vote Buying Model of the Legislative Process

This article constitutes a test of central tenets of vote buying theories using data on the number of days it takes to pass important bills in the US House. Survival analyses of a model of bill passage length provide confirmatory evidence of vote buying by presidents and the congressional leadership. Bills that attract buyers of votes to maintain the status quo are shown to pass more quickly than those that do not. Bills on the president's agenda and those that are relatively close to members' ideal points also pass quickly. The analyses furnish some interesting insights into possible efforts to make the legislative process quicker.     

Political Environment and Policy Change: The National Endowment for the Arts in the 1990s

The relationship between changes in the stability of the political environment and policy changes are examined through the case of the National Endowment for the Arts in the 1990s. The terminologies of Hall's first-, second-, and third-order policy change and Baumgartner and Jones’ punctuation equilibrium theory of policy change are employed to analyze the relationship evident in the policy history of the Arts Endowment. The case of the Arts Endowment in the 1990s suggests that first-order changes generally occur in a stable political environment (i.e., policy equilibrium) while great instability in a political environment (i.e., policy punctuation) allows the larger second- and the largest third-orders of policy change.