贝克的风险社会理论及其启示——评《风险社会》和《世界风险社会》

乌尔里希·贝克的风险社会理论是一种重视制度面向的社会学批判理论,其认识论基础是反思的现实主义,其理论预设是等级秩序的存在.中国以一种特殊的方式开始进入风险社会.风险社会理论透视出中国在现代化反思能力、法律系统、科学理性和社会理性的互动、环境法基本原则方面存在一些问题.     

论"非羁押式强制措施"的刑期折抵——以权利保障为视角

我国的刑事法律仅规定"羁押"的日期应当在被告人被判处的自由刑中予以折抵,而将取保候审、监视居住这样的"非羁押式强制措施"限制人身自由的日期排除于折抵刑期之外.从刑事司法公正、被追诉人的权利保障及权利与义务的对等性三方面论述"非羁押式强制措施"应予折抵刑期的合理性和正当性,并提出具体的立法建议.     

Crises and unpredictability in developing countries

Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment.     

Continuity and catastrophe: business continuity management and the security of financial operations

This paper discusses business continuity management (BCM) and its role in contemporary financial institutions. BCM is a nascent disaster preparedness and recovery strategy that seeks to protect vital business operations from disruptions. The paper traces contemporary BCM back to Cold War continuity of government planning, and shows how BCM came to comprehend security as continuity of processes rather than integrity of goods. BCM is prominent in finance because it promises to mitigate operational risks, and it focuses on risks stemming from interdependencies in financial infrastructures. By engaging with two events that triggered continuity management in banks, Hurricane Sandy in New York City and the ‘Blockupy’ demonstrations in Frankfurt, the paper highlights how BCM is challenged by large-scale disasters as well as acts of public criticism.     

执政安全与党内民主建设中的风险防范

维护执政安全,防控执政风险,是执政党巩固执政地位的必然要求.执政党的执政风险可能来自多个方面,其中包括执政党自身的民主建设状况,故必须加强党内民主建设,发展党内民主.如果在党内民主建设中出现原则性偏差或措施失当,有可能在党内造成思想多元、成员分层、组织分派、政治权威降低等,从而削弱党的凝聚力和战斗力,进而威胁党的执政地位和党的生存发展.因此,在推进党内民主建设时,必须强化风险防范意识,并从目标、方向、道路、制度、程序等方面着手,探索出一条增量式、渐进式的党内民主发展道路.     

职场友谊对员工职业成长的影响研究 —— 工作旺盛感的中介作用

伴随着组织扁平化和无边界职业生涯时代的到来,工作轮换成为频繁现象,为在劳动力市场中保持持续的竞争优势,关注和促进组织内的职业成长成为人们的最佳选择。本研究以职场友谊为切入点,探索职场友谊对员工职业成长的影响作用,同时探究了工作旺盛感在其中的中介效应。研究结果显示,职场友谊对员工职业成长有显著的正向影响;职场友谊对工作旺盛感有显著的正向影响;工作旺盛感对职业成长有显著的正向影响;工作旺盛感在职场友谊和职业成长的关系中起部分中介作用。在此研究基础上,提出对管理实践的启示,同时进一步探讨了本研究的不足和展望。     

Preventing Corruption Risk in Legislation: Evidence from Russia,Moldova, and Kazakhstan

ABSTRACT

Corruption risk assessment of draft laws and other normative acts is a relatively new instrument in the anti-corruption strategies implemented by developed nations, countries in transition, and the developing world. In connection with this, any practical experience accumulated in this area presents obvious interest. The analysis of such experience may allow to identify what works and what does not work in introducing the practices of anti-corruption screening of draft laws and other normative acts in various environments and settings, as well as contribute to dissemination of best practices in the countries of the region and elsewhere.

This article seeks to analyze and demonstrate the extent of practical implementation of corruption risk assessment of draft and enacted legislation in three post-communist countries, the problems encountered and solutions identified. Proceeding from this analysis, certain recommendations for practitioners in this field are formulated.     

Serial Domestic Abuse in Wales: An Exploratory Study Into its Definition,Prevalence, Correlates,and Management

Analysis of information held by police, probation, and third-sector organizations in Wales about 100 domestic abuse perpetrators, along with 16 practitioner interviews, provides the empirical context for a discussion of the problem of “serial domestic abuse.” Despite increased concern over the harm caused by serial abusers, different definitions and recording systems prevent a reliable estimation of the problem. This exploratory study suggests that the offending profiles of serial abusers are heterogeneous, and recommends that approaches aimed at reducing the harm caused by the “power few” domestic abusers incorporate information about serial alongside repeat and high-risk offending.     

The geography of pre-criminal space: epidemiological imaginations of radicalisation risk in the UK Prevent Strategy, 2007–2017

ABSTRACT

This article explores geographical and epistemological shifts in the deployment of the UK Prevent strategy, 2007–2017. Counter-radicalisation policies of the Labour governments (2006–2010) focused heavily upon resilience-building activities in residential communities. They borrowed from historical models of crime prevention and public health to imagine radicalisation risk as an epidemiological concern in areas showing a 2% or higher demography of Muslims. However, this racialised and localised imagination of pre-criminal space was replaced after the election of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in 2010. Residential communities were then de-emphasised as sites of risk, transmission and pre-criminal intervention. The Prevent Duty now deploys counter-radicalisation through national networks of education and health-care provision. Localised models of crime prevention (and their statistical, crime prevention epistemologies) have been de-emphasised in favour of big data inflected epistemologies of inductive, population-wide “safeguarding”. Through the biopolitical discourse of “safeguarding vulnerable adults”, the Prevent Duty has radically reconstituted the epidemiological imagination of pre-criminal space, imagining that all bodies are potentially vulnerable to infection by radicalisers and thus warrant surveillance.     

The ‘rule of experts’ in making a dynamic micro-insurance industry in India

India is reported to have the most dynamic micro-insurance market in the world and the largest weather-index insurance market among developing countries. This is interesting because, paradoxically, reports readily suggest that the primary hindrance for the industry is the widespread lack of effective demand for insurance. This paper seeks to identify, understand and problematize the paradox of resolutely promoting micro-insurance and its apparent rapid growth despite a manifest absence of demand for insurance. Neo-classical theories about risk-averse behaviour do not explain the current lack of appeal of insurance among the poor. Rather, I draw on a postcolonial political economy framework to argue that expert investment in getting prices and culture right while safeguarding micro-insurance supply currently explains the celebrated dynamism of Indian micro-insurance. I argue that promoting comprehensive institutional reform for an ideal investment and entrepreneurial climate involves securing mutually beneficial linkages, collaborations and knowledge within a broad assemblage of profit motives, insurance expertise, policy-makers and professionals. Insurance experts rule by promoting the micro-insurance sector while simultaneously investing in and gaining from discursive, material and pedagogical construction of this industry. Future research should address whether such processes and products are effective in managing financial risks of the poor.