Family negativity and delinquent behavior in adolescence: a predictive multivariate latent growth analysis

ABSTRACT

The current study had three aims: (1) to explore whether there is over-time change in adolescent delinquency and negativity in the parent–adolescent, sibling and marital relationships during adolescence; (2) to examine the interactions of negativity across subsystems; and (3) to examine whether levels and changes in adolescent delinquency are predicted by levels and changes in negativity in all family subsystems. Data of 497 families participating in the RADAR-young study were used. Ratings of all family members were used to measure negativity in family relationships, and adolescent self-report was used for delinquency. Multivariate latent growth curve models showed over-time increases in mother-adolescent negativity and over-time decreases in sibling negativity, as well as significant individual differences in these changes. Second, evidence for both social contagion and compensatory processes in family negativity was found. Third, initial levels of parent–adolescent negativity were related to initial levels but not over-time changes of adolescent delinquency, whereas initial levels of sibling negativity were related to over-time changes but not initial levels of adolescent delinquency. Finally, increases in parent–adolescent negativity were related to faster increases in adolescent delinquency, and decreases in sibling negativity were related to slower increases in adolescent delinquency. Implications of these results are discussed.     

Crime Trends in Western Europe from 1990 to 2000

This paper analyses the evolution of police recorded crime rates for nine offences (intentional homicide, assault, rape, robbery, theft, vehicle theft, burglary, domestic burglary, and drug offences) over the period 1990–2000 in 16 Western European Countries. The analysis shows that there was an increase in drug and violent offences, while property offences reached a peak at the beginning of the 1990s and started decreasing afterwards. The evolution of property offences can be related to the emergence of a large black market for stolen goods in Central and Eastern Europe at the beginning of the time series, while by the end of it that market was saturated and there had also been a reinforcement of police measures in the frontiers and of security measures in Western European households. The increase in drug offences is correlated to the rise of drug use in Europe shown by other indicators, and can be related to an increased availability of drugs in European markets. Finally, the upward trend in violent offences can be explained partially by gang struggles over the control of illegal markets and by the consolidation of problematic neighbourhoods, but seems also due to a large extent of increase in the reporting of violent offences by their victims and the recording of such offences by the police. The analysis shows that opportunity-based theories provide a satisfactory explanation of the trends in recorded crime, and that the crime opportunities are heavily influenced by socio-economical factors.Versions of this paper were presented at the 3rd Annual Conference of the European Society of Criminology (Helsinki, August 27–30, 2003) and at the Societies of Criminology 1st Key Issues Conference (Paris, May 13–15, 2004). The paper was written during a stay at the Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law (Freiburg imBreisgau, Germany) made possible through the support of Swiss National Science Foundation     

网络游戏对青少年犯罪的诱发作用及对策分析

现阶段,网络游戏对青少年犯罪具有较强的诱发作用,被称为“精神海洛因”。它混淆虚拟与现实,导致错误认知;过分侵犯虚拟角色,导致转化为现实行为;围绕“角色”物品和账号衍生出新形式的违法犯罪行为;对消极人性欲望的盅惑,成为严重暴力犯罪的潜在诱因。为减少网络游戏对青少年的消极影响,需要法律法规对其进行规范,对“玩家”行为进行引导,对虚拟财产加以技术保护,需要社会、家庭与学校对青少年加以引导。     

Social control theory: The salience of components by age,gender, and type of crime

Most social control theorists do not consider definitions of delinquency problematic. Beginning with the assumption that crime is a unitary concept, researchers have combined a variety of non-normative items to create additive delinquency scales. Rarely is consideration given to whether the causes of crime differ for distinct types of criminal activity. Furthermore, the classic social control model doesnot predict that bonding variables operate differently for distinct age and gender categories. Consistent with the structuring perspective, the present research attempts to refine the social control model by specifying conditions under which the model predicts different forms of delinquency. This study examines social control theory using survey data from middle- and high-school students (N=2926). Logit regression analysis revealed that the model which best explains personal crime differs from the model which best explains property crime. Also, certain components of the model were more powerful predictors of criminal behavior for different age-gender groups. The importance of model specification is demonstrated and the implications for social control theory are discussed.     

试论青少年犯罪的原因及预防机制──广东"黑龙会"覆灭的启示

从"黑龙会"案探讨青少年犯罪的原因,如教育的功利化、家庭教育缺陷、治安管理失范、犯罪亚文化的牵引等等,并以此案为切入点分析了家庭、学校、社会等多方面因素在青少年犯罪预防中应该发挥的作用。     

非监禁刑：犯罪未成年人矫治与预防的路径选择——基于实证的思考

对社会危害性和人身危险性较小的犯罪未成年人适用非监禁刑是挽救并帮助失足未成年人的最好途径,它不仅可以矫正他们的心理和行为,也可以预防他们再次犯罪。但由于对非监禁刑价值认识不足、制度存在缺陷、司法环境困扰和部门衔接不畅等原因,我国对犯罪未成年人适用非监禁刑还存在适用比例、适用刑种、适用区域、适用属地等方面的差异。这些差异与宽严相济刑事政策相悖,增加了社会风险;与平等适用法律原则相悖,影响了社会稳定;与罪刑相适应原则相悖,侵蚀了司法正义;与预防犯罪的刑罚目的相悖,减损了刑罚功能。减少、纠正这些偏差,应树立少年司法理念、完善少年司法立法、建立部门衔接机制、探索多种矫正模式。     

青少年犯罪心理预测变量分析

青少年身心发展特殊性决定的主观要素变化是青少年犯罪的重要心理条件。本文在借鉴艾里克·埃里克森等人关于青少年期人格发展理论成果的基础上,对青少年期犯罪预测变量的主观要素进行了人格归因,提出自我意识作为人格系统的重要变量,对青少年犯罪心理预测变量具有深层次的影响作用,同时对教育实践中自我意识塑造的目标要素进行了关注。     

住房按揭贷款逾期风险识别与管理研究——基于借款人学历视角的实证检验

住房按揭贷款市场向来关注借款人学历水平，但有关学历与借款人行为内在关系的研究却相对不足。以住房公积金贷款为例，利用某重点城市2005-2014年住房公积金贷款还款数据，构建Cox比例风险模型，从总体影响、被动逾期、主动逾期、年龄效应等多个维度，对借款人学历与其还款逾期行为之间的联系进行系统性实证检验。研究结果表明，在偿还住房按揭贷款的过程中，高学历借款人的信用水平相对更优，他们的被动逾期和主动逾期行为发生概率均相对更低，并且这一规律在年轻借款人群体中更加明显。因此，商业银行、住房公积金中心等（准）金融机构可以充分利用学历信号在识别借款人信用过程中的上述作用，进一步加强住房按揭贷款风险防控，更好地实现金融服务供需有效匹配，提高授信方资金安全性和受信方金融可得性。     

未成年人违法犯罪的量刑规范化研究

国内外司法界、学术界乃至立法机关在如何化解量刑不均衡问题上进行了大量的探索,国内要求量刑规范化改革的呼声越来越高,最高人民法院也已经出台了量刑规范化的试行文件。未成年人违法犯罪是近年来学术界和实务界一直关注的焦点,但有关量刑规范化的研究尚不深入,通过探讨未成年人违法犯罪的量刑规范化问题以期能够引起学界和实务界的重视。     

Gender and Justice in the Progressive Era: An Investigation of Saint Louis Juvenile Court Cases, 1909–1912

There is increased interest in the history of the juvenile court and its role in the social control of youth. In this context, feminist scholars have emphasized the long‐standing legacy of the court's attempt to control girls' violations of gender images, particularly sexual behavior and status offenses. This perspective argues that girls are penalized more harshly than boys, despite being charged with less serious offenses. The present study tests hypotheses about the relationships between gender and charge, prehearing detention, and disposition using St. Louis juvenile court records for the years 1909–1912. Qualitative content analysis is used to probe more deeply the connection between gender and sexually based charges in the early history of the St. Louis juvenile court. Findings indicate that girls were subject to harsher forms of social control than boys, despite less serious charges, and that sexual behavior was described and treated much differently in girls' records than in boys'. Connections to contemporary practices are delineated.