美国选举安全问题:以2016年和2020年总统大选为例

2016年美国总统大选暴露了长期存在于该国选举体系中的风险,"选举安全"迅速成为当代美国国家安全与国土安全领域的重要议题。美国选举安全涉及网络安全、社会安全、政治安全与军事安全,体现出"复合安全问题"的特质。美国联邦与各州政府试图从降低关键基础设施风险、重建选民信任、减少部门壁垒以及填补机制缺失四个层面入手,系统性化解存在于选举系统的各类安全威胁。2020年美国大选期间,原有选举安全风险得到一定程度的缓解,但美国国家安全体制及文化与其选举安全体系的运行逻辑之间仍存在多层矛盾,特别是美国选举体系的产业市场与创新之间的矛盾、国家安全与"言论自由"之间的矛盾、"全政府"与"地方权"之间的矛盾、"网络自由"与"网络主权"之间的矛盾。这些矛盾会长期存在,将使利益攸关方不断发生龃龉,阻碍相关政策深入推进,最终导致美国在选举安全治理上将一直面临难以克服的困境。     

论我国未成年人监护制度的完善

未成年人监护制度是监护制度的重要组成部分,它不仅关系到保护未成年人的合法权益,而且还关系到社会秩序的稳定。目前,我国监护制度中还存在着监护机构设置不合理、监护人的选任缺乏一定的标准、监护人的职责及权利不明、监护的种类不全等问题。为了更好地保护未成年人的利益,针对上述不足,提出自己的建议。     

中小企业融资难问题的法律破解

中小企业融资难问题已深深制约着我国中小企业的发展壮大,在直接融资和间接融资两种方式中存在融资难有法律方面的原因,为解决中小企业融资难的问题,提高中小企业融资能力,文章分别就中小企业在直接融资和间接融资两种融资方式上融资难问题提出了破解办法。     

关于外资企业民主管理多元化的思考

与国有企业相比较,外资企业实行民主管理具有自身的特殊性。由此决定了外资企业在实行民主管理过程中,必须根据企业实际,在内容和形式上进行探索,采取多种途径和灵活的方法,以达到民主管理的实际效果。     

Validation of thin layer chromatography with AccuTOF-DART™ detection for forensic drug analysis

Abstract: Thin layer chromatography (TLC) is a technique that is commonly employed in the forensic drug analysis of pharmaceutical preparations. Detection is typically accomplished using various visualization spray reagents. Conventional gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC‐MS) analysis is typically performed to confirm the TLC results. Depending on the drugs tested and the instrument conditions required, this confirmation can take up to an hour to complete. Direct analysis in real time (DART?) is an ionization source, coupled to an accurate‐mass time‐of‐flight mass spectrometer that has the capability to ionize materials under ambient conditions. To streamline analysis, the combination of TLC with DART? detection is proposed to screen and subsequently identify drug compounds, all from the same TLC plate. DART? confirmations of TLC analyses take <10 min to complete and compare favorably to GC‐MS in sensitivity and selectivity. This study validates the use of TLC‐DART in the forensic identification of the components of several pharmaceutical preparations.     

Analysis of alprazolam by DART-TOF mass spectrometry in counterfeit and routine drug identification cases

The high prevalence of alprazolam abuse translates to an increased workload for crime laboratories in characterizing seized tablets. These tablets may originate as diverted pharmaceuticals or counterfeited mimics, so efficient analytical techniques should provide confirmatory data while minimizing destruction of evidence. We offer the first report of a validated forensic method for confirming alprazolam tablets by direct analysis in real time-time of flight (DART-TOF) mass spectrometric analysis. This technique provides rapid identification of target analytes with minimal sample preparation, allowing direct analysis in the atmospheric sample gap. Selectivity is achieved through high resolution and mass accuracy, unique ion fragments, and chlorine isotopic ratios. This method utilizes fragmentation in two separate voltage functions to observe the alprazolam pseudo molecular ion at 309.09070 using 40 V and major ion fragments of 281.07197 and 205.07657 at 120 V. These parameters allow our laboratory to confirm alprazolam tablets efficiently, without compromising quality forensic standards.     

Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model

The Seats-Votes model forecasts party seat shares in the House of Commons using data from general elections and opinion polls between 1945 and 2009. The model is built on a generalisation of the cube rule which provided a fairly accurate method of translating votes into seats when Britain was effectively a two party system prior to the 1970s. It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. The relatively small sample used to estimate the model means that predictions about the size of the parties in Parliament are quite tentative, though predictions about the likelihood of a hung Parliament are more certain.     

Nowcasting V. polling: The 2010 UK election trials

This paper first offers a final forecast for the May 2010 UK general election based on our “two-step model” [Nadeau, R., Lewis-Beck, M.S., Bélanger, É., 2009. Election forecasting in the United Kingdom: a two-step model. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19, 333-358.]. That model is then used to explore a new technique, “nowcasting.” We examine our model “nowcasts,” comparing it to the classic forecasting strategy of the vote intention poll, across the contemporary election period, 2005-2010. As is shown, nowcasting offers forecasting advantages that simple polling does not. Most notably, the nowcast provides variation that appears much more subject to substantive explanation of the electoral cycle, and it provides predictions with a three-month lead.     

论普选对香港特区政府的影响

即将实行的香港普选,既符合人民主权原则,也使特区政府面临中央和民众的"双重问责"。一方面,当行政决策的地方主体性被加强的同时,特区政府必须处理好与中央意志的平衡问题;另一方面,普选将推动政党、压力团体和民众的广泛政治参与,通过监督决策过程和效果,促使政务公开和透明,使特区政府更加民主和谨慎决策。