直接民主制的困境和代议制民主的防护保障机制

直接民主制作为民主的一种实现形式,是人类政治文明发展史上的一项伟大创举。然而,随着人类历史的发展以及民族国家的兴起,直接民主制从政治实践到理论本身都面临着困境。代议制民主的产生为民主车轮继续前行注入新的动力。但是,代议制民主自身同样也面临着天然的或衍生的缺陷,必须为其构建防护机制,以保障其有效运行。     

Voting when the economy goes bad,everyone is in charge,and no one is to blame: The case of the 2009 German election

The economy was a major issue in Germany’s 2009 election. The global economic crisis did not spare Germany, whose economy is tightly integrated into the global economy. So when the German economy experienced a historical shock, did voters connect their views of the economy with their vote choice? Or did they, as some research has suggested, recognize Germany’s dependence on global markets and cut the government slack, especially when the government consists of the country’s two major parties? Using pre- and post-election panel surveys from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), we investigate the weight that voters gave to the economy, relative to other considerations, when casting their ballot and whether governing parties were disproportionately judged based on the state of the economy.     

Medical regulation of cognitive enhancement devices: some concerns

The authors present a cogent and detailed case for altering the Medical Devices Directive to allow regulation of cognitive enhancement devices (CEDs). Protection against significant risk of harm, especially for the vulnerable, and promotion of benefit through informed use of CEDs are all good features of the proposal. However, the pre-market approval process has limitations, which we explore. We raise the possibility of ‘risk compensation’ in response to the introduction of safety measures, which could alter its effectiveness. The proposal alludes to use of ‘formally trained practitioners,’ which provide a further tier of regulation for CEDs within the proposal. We consider some positive and negative implications of this aspect of the proposal that might warrant further consideration.     

包庇黑社会性质组织罪若干问题研究

包庇黑社会性质组织罪是指国家机关工作人员包庇黑社会性质组织的行为。它是修订后的刑法在第 2 94条第 4款所增加的一个新罪名。本罪所侵犯的直接客体是什么 ?包庇的对象是否只能是“黑社会性质的组织” ?“包庇”行为如何界定以及本罪的立法是否需要进一步的完善等问题均值得研究     

The opposition Pakatan Rakyat in the twelfth Malaysian parliament, 2008–12, and parliamentary behaviour on the budget process

In the post-2008 Malaysian general election, the opposition political parties the Parti KeADILan Rakyat, the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party and the Democratic Action Party started to gain currency, especially when the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) government was denied its two-thirds of the majority in parliament. The 2008 result indicated that there was a substantial shift in support from the incumbent BN to the opposition parties. The opposition later on was formed into a coalition known as Pakatan Rakyat (PR). The minor victory of the PR in the 2008 election suggested that it had secured a considerable number of seats in the twelfth Malaysian parliament. This article argues that the 2008 electoral outcome exhibited substantial competitive parliamentary behaviour despite the authoritarian nature of Malaysia. The article examines PR behaviour in the twelfth parliament with reference to the budget process. Besides elections, the Malaysian parliament is a very crucial indicator of the development of democratic governance in Malaysia. This article argues that the opposition PR is still relevant in the way in which it has fully exercised its legal parliamentary capability, especially its de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim, in questioning and posing constraints on the ruling BN policies concerning the budget process.     

“直接证据”的迷思

将直接证据与间接证据等区别开来,强调前者的重要性和优越性,是一种流布甚久的普遍观念。能否进行这种区分、如何区分以及这种区分是否具有规范意义等问题,在近年来也受到了理论研究的关注。从诉讼证明的认知构造来看,"直接证据"的界说应当区分严格的理解和日常习惯的理解;无论哪一种界说,都没有多少实际的规范意义。比较而言,关于直接证据的诸种传统界说多是有问题的;近年来的论争,无论是何种论说,都未能促进人们更好地理解此方面的问题。应当放弃在日常习惯理解意义上界分直接证据与间接证据等的视角来制定相关证据规则的努力,注重对前者的证明力进行审查。     

地区竞争、选举政治与“一带一路”债务可持续性——剖析所谓“债务陷阱外交”论

从2017年开始,国际舆论较为频繁地使用"债务陷阱外交"描述中国"一带一路"倡议背后的战略目的。从经济角度衡量,中国给"一带一路"沿线国家的贷款条件并不苛刻,且在中国推出"一带一路"之前,大量中低收入国家的债务负担就已经出现明显增长趋势,并不存在"一带一路"引发系统性"债务陷阱"的问题。因此,"债务陷阱外交"论缺乏经济基础。进而可以发现,东道国及其所处的地区政治环境在"债务陷阱外交"论产生与传播的过程中扮演了重要角色。为此,本文构建了一个地区环境与国内政治选举相互作用的分析框架,通过比较案例研究分析了"债务陷阱外交"论在典型国家出现、传播与发挥影响的机制。"一带一路"项目往往与东道国执政者"政治捆绑",国内权力更迭导致的国家发展战略变动,为该国政府改变自身对"一带一路"的政策选择创造了空间,其所处的地区政治环境也显著影响政策变化的幅度。中国在推进"一带一路"建设时,既要与东道国进行双边互动,充分重视东道国国内不同力量的博弈,也要注意到沿线国家所处地区政治环境对该国能否持续参与"一带一路"构成制约。我们需要以一种更加多维的视角进行思考,超越传统的紧盯美国的对外政策模式,为"一带一路"的顺利实施营造更加良好的政治环境。     

The British general election: Synthetic forecasts

Election forecasting work, in Britain and elsewhere, has been confined mainly to traditional approaches – statistical modeling or poll-watching. We import a new approach, which we call synthetic modeling. These models, developed out of forecasting efforts from the American 2012 presidential election, we are currently testing in a comparative European context. In this exercise, we apply the strategy to forecasting British general elections, in particular the upcoming 2015 contest. These synthetic forecasts come from hybrid models blending structural knowledge with contemporary public opinion. We generate ongoing nowcasts, from six months prior, to one month before, Election Day itself.     

Forecasting the 2015 British election through party popularity functions

To forecast the May 7, 2015 British General Election, we develop party popularity models based on Continuous Monitoring Survey (CMS) data from April 2004 to February 2015. Our models predict party vote shares three months prior to the election, using previous support levels, national economic evaluations, macro-partisanship and political measures. Our Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methodology allows us to predict support for the Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats and “other” parties, separately, yet simultaneously, by constraining total support for all parties to 100%. Our model, estimated with data from February 2015, predicts that Labour will win the highest vote share in Great Britain, but that no party will win a majority of seats in parliament.     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2015 British general election

This paper develops a three-stage method to forecast parliamentary election results from vote preferences in British opinion polls: (1) adjusting and aggregating vote-intentions from different polling organizations; (2) forecasting how public support for parties will change in the period before election day; and (3) translating, through simulations, the forecast of election day vote shares into seat totals while incorporating constituency-level information, including local vote-intention polls. Overall, this approach seeks to combine relevant national, regional and local information, and uncertainty about that information, to better reflect the fragmentation and diversity of political contexts found in the new era of five/six-party British politics.