Review of Uncertainty Economic Cycle Theory

Uncertainty shocks have significant impact on macroeconomic development, and it is the key factor for economic policymaking. The uncertainty economic cycle theory is the frontier macroeconomics research, using the time-varying volatility model to describe the uncertainty, and introducing the time-varying volatility model into dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. This paper systematically reviews the definition and measurement of uncertainty, the solving of DSGE models with uncertainty shocks, the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks and its micro-mechanisms, and puts forward the potential research direction of uncertainty shocks in China.     

东亚与美国经贸关系演变与新的发展出路

本文从贸易地位、出口商品结构、贸易结合度梳理了东亚与美国经贸关系的演变。结果显示,源于国际分工模式的改变,中美经贸关系逐年紧密,东亚其余经济体与美国经贸紧密度逐年下降,而对东亚区域内部的依赖远超过对美国的依赖。金融危机带来的全球经济格局和结构的重大调整使东亚出口急剧萎缩,而后危机时期发达国家无就业复苏和重振制造业的动向,更使东亚须通过内部经济循环寻求新的发展出路。     

欧亚经济共同体经济一体化及其效应分析

欧亚经济共同体是以俄罗斯为主导的独联体框架内最重要的经济一体化组织。自2000年诞生以来,该组织在建立关税同盟方面取得了重大实质性进展,建立统一运输空间、统一能源市场和统一社会经济空间的工作稳步推进,金融和货币领域合作有所加强,经济一体化的静态效应、动态效应,以及非传统经济效应和外溢效应开始逐步显现。但由于成员国经济发展水平差距较大,多数成员国的经济规模很小,且共同体内实行的是不同速度的一体化进程,共同体的一体化效应因而又具有一定的局限性。随着欧亚经济共同体内俄白哈关税同盟的正式启动,欧亚经济共同体的一体化效应将明显改观。     

经济全球化、人的安全 与治理

人的安全是人的发展之重要条件,它包括经济安全、食品安全、健康安全、环境安全、人身安全、社区安全和政治安全等七个方面的内容。目前的经济全球化加剧了人的不安全性,具体表现在全球性生产、人口迁徙、生产的新模式、传统领土安全与人的安全之间的资源竞争、相互依赖与领土主权原则之间的冲突,对人的安全带来了负面影响。在经济全球化条件下,各国难以单独有效地应对人的安全的难题,在人的安全治理上不仅需要国家的治理结构,还需要一个以人的发展为原则的全球治理结构。面对人的安全,全球治理结构应该具有以下特征：以合作姿态来帮助相关国家解决人的安全问题,而不是作为超国家主体干预发展中国家;它是一种经济、社会的全面治理结构,而不是一种单纯的安全结构;治理的原则应该是以人为本。但是,目前由于全球治理中的“民主赤字”使得在全球范围内的治理效果不彰。要改善人的安全的治理结构必须首先在世界范围内减少“民主赤字”。     

Worker Influence on Capital Account Policy: Inflow Liberalization and Outflow Restrictions

How do workers impact openness to international investment flows? This article distinguishes between two types of openness: openness to inflows and openness to outflows of investment. Workers benefit from inflow openness due to increases in wages, productivity, and efficiency and due to reductions in borrowing costs, which are associated with investment inflows. Workers are hurt by outflow openness, as investors gain investment options, and therefore bargaining power, when outflows are permitted. Labor rights help workers overcome collective action problems, and democratic institutions increase policymakers’ responsiveness to labor organizations and make their commitment to labor rights credible. The theory thus predicts that, particularly under democratic institutions, labor rights are positively correlated with inflow openness and negatively correlated with outflow openness. Evidence from time-series, cross-sectional data is consistent with the theoretical expectations.     

东北地区消费过度敏感性分析

在东北地区经济发展的历程中,传统经济范式使得消费的拉动效应较弱。通过采用面板数据模型对东北三省消费过度敏感性检验可知,城镇和农村居民的消费过度敏感性系数都较高,当期消费与当期可支配收入之间具有较高的相关性。较高的消费过度敏感性抑制了居民的消费水平,限制了消费对经济的推动力。东北地区要维持健康稳定地发展,需扩大本地区的消费水平,因此要改变居民的传统消费观念和行为,完善消费信贷市场,提供有效的生活保障措施,并维持政策的可持续性。     

经济全球化背景下加强高校俄语专业二外教学问题研究

经济全球化是超越国界的经济活动,它使得世界各国的整体性日趋凸显.随着这一趋势对中国影响日深,高校的相关专业也应注重培养能够熟练掌握多门外语的人才.作为中俄边境大省,黑龙江省高校的俄语专业在应对这一经济发展趋势时,应大力加强第二外语教学.具体做法是：注重分类教学、选择适当教材、加强师资配备、明确学习目标、重视心理教育、注重比较教学、创建语言环境.     

Economic Discussion of Conflict between Public Education Policies and Common Good Arts in the United States

Arts education in the United States, especially in public schools, has been neglected and its public funding has decreased. This is partly due to the difference in the conception of public education policies and the arts. The theory of economic goods and an analysis of two current education policies demonstrate that public education is treated as a public good that is needed by all people, and therefore funded with tax dollars. Because the arts are common goods that different people value in their own terms, education in the arts is treated as nonessential and funded sporadically in public school settings. Based on the theory of the commons, the author suggests that nonprofit arts organizations are equipped to deal with the common good and diverse nature of the arts and can provide sustainable arts education that fills the gap of arts education in public schools.     

澳大利亚与东盟的经济关系

澳大利亚1974年与东盟正式建立关系后,双边贸易关系有了较大发展,双向投资明显增加,澳大利亚对东盟的经济援助也呈增长势头。尽管双边经济关系中仍存在不少问题,但也有不少有利因素推动澳与东盟的经济关系继续向前发展。     

经济全球化中的澳大利亚经济发展趋势

在经济全球化进程中,澳大利亚经济经历了亚洲金融危机的冲击,保持了经济持续稳步的增长。21世纪初,尽管世界经济可能趋向于低速增长,但澳大利亚经济将能保持在年增长率3.5%左右,出口增长率约6%,可望保持在接近90年代的发展水平。