汇率制度选择理论综述

传统汇率制度选择理论的关注点为固定汇率制和浮动汇率制的优劣之争,而新兴汇率制度选择理论的关注点则为中间汇率制度和两极汇率制度的优劣之争,由此派生出了各种汇率制度选择理论。近年来,经济学家开始从可维持性和危机预防的角度出发来研究汇率制度的选择和安排,汇率制度选择理论的研究也从静态视角转向动态视角。     

The ‘pains’ of electronic monitoring: a slap on the wrist or just as bad as prison?

The purpose of this research is to examine whether inmates that have served electronic monitoring (EM) find it more punitive than offenders that have not served electronic monitoring. We asked a sample of 1194 inmates currently incarcerated in a Midwestern state to estimate exchange rates of electronic monitoring over prison by rating how many months of EM they would serve to avoid 12 months in prison. The results indicate that inmates view EM as less punitive than prison and that monitored offenders find EM more punitive than unmonitored offenders. Additionally, black inmates were more likely to have served EM than white inmates and older inmates find EM more punitive than younger inmates. Previously monitored offenders report that they will be less likely to rely on family and friends upon release from prison. These results suggest that EM is perceived as a punitive sanction by those that have experienced it. Furthermore, racial differences uncovered here may help explain why minorities view alternative sanctions as particularly punitive and may also partially explain why the experience of EM may negatively impact family relationship among those that have served EM.     

Nazlı's photographic games: Said and art history in a contrapuntal mode

ABSTRACT

Through a focus on photographic portraits commissioned in the late nineteenth century by the Ottoman-Egyptian Princess Nazl? Han?m, Roberts analyses the ways they tested Ottoman and western conventions. An examination of Nazl?'s strategic engagement with photography in this period positions her within the often-separated domains of Egyptian nationalism, Ottoman political reform, western Orientalist art and a proto-feminist moment of Egyptian women's history. One of the striking things about the Nazl? portraits is their transgressive inventiveness. This is transgression as Edward Said defines it, with an emphasis on crossing boundaries, testing and challenging limits, and cutting across expectations. Nazl?'s inventiveness is apparent through her canny experimentation with the codes of portrait photography and the ways she deploys her portraits as tokens of exchange within her culture and with her European interlocutors. Roberts argues that Nazl? Han?m's use of photography operates in a contrapuntal mode in the Saidean sense of a simultaneity of voices that sound against, as well as with, each other. Over the last three decades Said's writings have provided a crucial methodological framework for the critique of western Orientalist visual culture. Recently art historians have repositioned this corpus of western imagery in relation to art by practitioners from the region and addressed cultural exchanges. Said's seminal text Orientalism has been pivotal within these debates. Yet it is not so much this landmark book, but rather Said's writings on music, in which we can find an alternative approach to cross-cultural exchange. By transposing this model into the domain of art history, Roberts engages with his notion of reading contrapuntally. Said was interested in the broader applicability of this term, although its potential as an interpretive model for the visual arts remains unexamined. Through this case study of Nazl? Han?m's photographs, Roberts reassesses the value of Said's writings on music for understanding nineteenth-century visual culture.     

黑河市与俄罗斯文化交流的现状、问题与对策

近年来,黑河以"中俄文化大集"为平台,使官方对俄文化交流进入常态化、规范化;以黑河龙江国际文化展览有限公司的成立为契机,使民间对俄文化交流实现跨越升级;以黑河学院为龙头,使对俄教育交流确立了"桥头堡"和"枢纽站"地位。黑河对俄文化交流存在明显须解决的问题:对俄文化交流仍处于实践与探索中,没有上升到理论层面;对俄文化交流的领域广泛,但发展不均衡,一些领域须加快发展。为了加快推进黑河与俄罗斯的文化交流工作,黑河应采取如下举措:创办高峰发展论坛、加大对俄研究力度、加强图书馆建设。     

Effect of time and relationships on victim–offender dialogue completion in felony cases

Victim–offender dialogues (VODs) often take place in organizational contexts, the stakeholders of which may very well be interested in measures of program effectiveness such as completion rates. When reported, completion rates typically ranged from 40 to 60%. At the time of this study, Ohio’s VOD program was completing just 25% of initiated cases and program stakeholders were unsure as to the cause(s). An archived data analysis was performed on a sample (n?=?212) of the Office of Victim Services (OVS) completed and will-not-proceed files. One hypothesis and two research questions make use of archived data to explore this felony VOD context. The amount of time between the date the crime occurred and the date on which the dialogue file was initiated was not a significant predictor of dialogue completion. However, both victim-offender’s pre-crime relationship and dialogue file initiator were found to significantly impact dialogue completion rates. These results are considered in light of social exchange and uncertainty reduction theories.     

Against the law: Arthur Maimane’s pioneering hard-boiled black detective fiction in Drum Magazine

ABSTRACT

This article sets out to re-examine, and recover, South Africa’s first hard-boiled crime fiction created by a black writer: Arthur Maimane’s crime stories published in Drum magazine in 1953. Maimane wrote a series of stories about a black PI, styled on the American hard-boiled genre for Drum, a popular South African magazine aimed at a black audience, known for its borrowing from American popular culture. Mamaine’s fiction has been widely dismissed by generations of Drum critics, as “derivative” “imitation.” Repositioning the stories within the broader context of crime fiction suggests quite a different reading. Maimane’s stories reveal how tensions between the genre and laws in apartheid South Africa resulted in radical alterations to the hard boiled formula. Since Maimane’s stories precede Chester Himes’s African-American novels, they should be recognized as a pioneering example of black crime fiction that demonstrates the relationship between race and genre.     

“发展陷阱”的形成原因分析——兼论中国经济落入发展陷阱的必然性

陷入“发展陷阱”之前的追赶型国家,往往会出现以美元计量的人均名义GDP增长率快于以本币计量的人均实际GDP增长率,这实际上也就是国际相对成本的上升和国际相对竞争力的下降,国内外市场因此会不断被更低收入国家蚕食;人均美元收入的快速提高产生的对生活品质的追求,会导致大量有效需求向发达国家转移。这些表现在企业收支上,也就是成本的提高与收入的减少;在国家层面则表现为外贸收支逆差增加和外汇储备减少或外债增加,由此落入“发展陷阱”。我国目前可能正处在该陷阱的入口。     

人民币汇率变动对中美贸易结构收支的影响——基于SITC分类标准的实证分析

人民币汇率变动能否解决中美双边贸易失衡问题一直是国内外学者研究与争论的焦点。实证分析表明,人民币汇率的水平变动无法起到调节中美两国贸易收支的作用,但适度增加汇率波动弹性有助于缓解贸易失衡。因此,只有消除对人民币升值的预期、进行经济结构调整以及改善外商直接投资的流向,才能从根本上恢复中美之间的贸易平衡。     

俄罗斯外汇储备的理论与实证分析

随着世界经济恢复和国内经济形势好转,俄罗斯外汇储备规模逐渐扩大。在俄外汇储备中,美元和欧元是最重要的储备币种,但目前俄罗斯外汇储备正处于相对过剩的状态。影响俄罗斯外汇储备的主要原因有对外贸易顺差上升、FDI流入扩大,以及世界石油价格攀升。为解决俄罗斯外汇储备的现实问题,应加强经济结构调整、实施积极的外汇储备政策、完善外汇市场机制、积极参与区域经济合作等方面的对策研究。     

Paradigm Shift for the Alcohol Breath Test

Abstract: The alcohol breath test (ABT) has been used for quantification of ethyl alcohol in individuals suspected of driving under the influence for more than 50 years. In this time, there has been little change in the concepts underlying this single breath test. The old model, which assumes that end‐exhaled breath alcohol concentration is closely related to alveolar air alcohol concentration, is no longer acceptable. This paper reviews experimental research and mathematical modeling which has evaluated the pulmonary exchange processes for ethyl alcohol. Studies have shown that alcohol exchanges dynamically with the airway tissue both during inspiration and expiration. The airway tissue interaction makes it impossible to deliver air with alveolar alcohol concentration to the mouth. It is concluded that the ABT is dependent on physiological factors that need to be assessed for accurate testing.