俄罗斯经济形势分析与预测

2007年俄罗斯经济强劲增长，各项主要经济指标完成情况好于预期。各部门、各产业发展呈活跃态势。但喜中也有忧，通货膨胀迅速攀升，经济增长仍主要依赖能源、原材料出口。2008年，俄经济仍将保持继续稳定增长趋势，受通胀等因素影响，增速有可能放缓。     

通货膨胀目标制的内涵及在中国的检验

通货膨胀目标制是当今世界流行的一种货币政策制度.尽管学术界至今对通货膨胀目标制存在不同意见,但对这一制度的有关特征是有共识的,即要明确规定一个数量化的通货膨胀目标;货币政策操作应该有相当高的透明度;中央银行对通货膨胀目标的实现承担责任.此外,通货膨胀目标制是一个包括操作工具、操作目标、信息变量和最终目标在内的有关货币政策制定和实施的系统.本文构建了这一制度的模型框架,并用中国的数据检验了其适用性.结果表明,灵活通胀目标制规则在当前中国的货币政策实践中并不非常适合.     

俄罗斯经济转型过程中通货膨胀问题的货币解释

对俄罗斯经济转型过程中的持续高通胀的解释是一个具有重要理论和现实意义的问题。通过对俄罗斯经济转型以来通货膨胀成因的分析,可以发现:作为货币现象的通货膨胀在转型时期有更复杂的决定因素,其中,制度结构和金融系统效率是基础,货币政策选择发挥着关键作用;俄罗斯不同时期的货币供给和货币需求在复杂的制度变迁背景下难以相互协调,是高通胀得以持续的主要原因;货币政策由汇率目标制向通货膨胀目标制的过渡是俄罗斯2008年金融危机后成功控制通货膨胀的关键所在。这些发现对我国通货膨胀的政策选择具有重要的启示。     

The Economic Policy Agenda in Australia, 1962–2012

This paper surveys Australian economic policy over the last half century, identifying patterns and punctuations in the management of both macroeconomic and more structural challenges. It highlights the extent to which the economic policy agenda has been dictated by economic forces, while acknowledging the ideological preferences governments bring to their task. In retrospect, this half century in Australia has been dominated by macroeconomic turmoil and structural adjustment in the middle decades. Australian governments had to deal simultaneously with the macroeconomic problems of inflation and recession from the mid‐1970s to the early 1990s while also facing the need to dismantle the development framework that had been in place since Federation or even earlier.     

论抗战时期国民政府统制经济政策的影响

随着抗日战争的爆发,被迫退守西部地区的国民政府为了赢得抗战,实行了战时统制经济政策.这种统制经济政策所带来的影响是复杂的、多方面的.它既为打败日本侵略者提供了经济上的保证,又推动了西部经济的发展.但这种经济政策也助长了国家垄断资本的全面形成,挤占了民营资本的发展空间,从而阻碍了中国资本主义的正常发展,并且这种政策是以损害广大人民尤其是农民的利益为基础的.     

转型期的中国货币政策规则：基于拟合效果的选择

从拟合效果的角度来分析通货膨胀目标制和泰勒规则这两大最流行的货币政策规则在中国的选择问题,研究结果表明,从对中国利率走势的预测能力来看,通货膨胀目标制远远优于泰勒规则.因此,中国人民银行要想提高对宏观经济的把握能力,及时准确地获取宏观经济信息,应该选择通货膨胀目标制并积极创造实行通胀目标制的各种条件.     

China＇s Changing Development Pattern

正DATA available on the world’s two largest economies,China and the U.S.,for 2013provide an opportunity to take stock of China’s immediate economic prospects and the more general challenges facing its economic development strategy.     

Is the EU held accountable for economic performances? Assessing vote and popularity functions before and after membership

The EU has become increasingly responsible for the state of national economies over the last decades. Meanwhile, many observers have claimed that this increased responsibility has not translated into more accountability. In this article, we revisit this literature and analyse vote-popularity functions before and after accession because it provides a situation when the EU is an incumbent and when it is not. Using Eurobarometer surveys from 2001 to 2011, which were carried out in the countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007, we first show that individuals do not hold the EU accountable for macroeconomic performances before accession, but that they do after accession. Using European Election Studies surveys, we also indicate that the incumbent European Peoples’ Party is held accountable for the state of the economy in countries that are ruled by the EU, but not in countries that have just become EU members.     

金融体制改革中通货膨胀与通货紧缩的体制性原因

中国金融体制改革中出现了通货膨胀与通货紧缩现象,其原因主要在于体制改革的滞后和不到位。要克服这两种现象,需要通过包括金融体制改革在内的经济体制改革来解决。只有打破旧的体制,建立和完善新的体制,才能从根本上抑制通货膨胀和治理通货紧缩。     

我国投资和消费比例关系的演变及其问题和对策

本文首先对新中国各个时期投资和消费比例关系的演变过程进行了考察。接着指出当前我国消费率已经跌入低谷,投资率步入高峰,亟待调整,强调这是一个关系发展、改革、稳定的全局性问题。最后着重就降低经济增速和改革投资膨胀机制两方面提出了对策意见。