电子政府是抑制官僚主义之良策

电子政府能够有效地抑制官僚主义,抑制行政膨胀,促进规模适度的政府建立,从而加快有限政府的形成。     

东盟五国通货膨胀的福利成本研究

本文通过消费者剩余方法、补偿变量法和现金优先模型计算了东盟五国通货膨胀的福利成本。实证结果证明：5％的通货膨胀对东盟五国造成的福利损失都保持在总收入的0．01—0．5％之间,利用温和通胀来刺激经济发展的货币政策具备一定的可行性。但是当通胀率超过10％的时候,即恶性通胀发生以后,福利损失会成倍增长,通胀治理将成为货币政策当局的首要目标。     

Good Inflation, Bad Inflation: The Housing Boom, Economic Growth and the Disaggregation of Inflationary Preferences in the UK and Ireland

This article presents a comparative analysis of the determinants, sustenance and broader macroeconomic consequences of the ultimately unsustainable housing boom in Ireland and the UK in recent years. It examines, in particular, the role played by ostensibly depoliticised monetary policy in both contexts in the development of a house price bubble that has served to fuel consumer-led growth. It assesses the viability, sustainability and reproducibility of the private debt-financed consumer boom that house price inflation has generated. In the process it draws attention to the increasingly differentiated character of both government inflationary preferences and counter-inflationary performance—with the shift to official measures of inflation that exclude mortgage interest repayments and, in the UK at least, to the covert re-politicisation of monetary policy. It concludes by suggesting that governments may well not have time-inconsistent inflationary preferences so much as sectorally specific inflationary preferences. This might be summarised in terms of the aphorism: 'retail price inflation bad, house price inflation good'.     

对本轮物价上涨原因及对策的思考

防止经济增长由偏快转为过热、防止价格由结构性上涨演变为明显通货膨胀。2008年宏观调控的首要任务,是实施从紧的货币政策,这一政策的出台也是基于政府对当前物价连续上涨、货币信贷增长过快等宏观形势的准确判断。2007年的物价上涨是由食品价格引发的,但仔细分析此轮物价上涨的宏观环境及内部成因是多方面的,使我们对于我国的此轮物价上涨不可轻视。     

Taking the bait: interrogation questions about hypothetical evidence may inflate perceptions of guilt

ABSTRACT

During suspect interviews, police will sometimes ask about hypothetical incriminating evidence to evoke a cue to deception – a technique known as a bait question. Previous research has demonstrated such questions can distort peoples’ memory for what evidence exists in a case. Here, we investigate whether such memory distortion can also cause people to see the suspect as more likely to be guilty. Across three experiments, we find exposure to bait questions led to participants hold inflated views of a suspect’s guilt. Further, we demonstrate bait questions cause reliable, robust memory distortion, leading participants to believe non-existent, incriminating evidence exists. However, we found no evidence to support the speculated mechanisms for this inflation – namely, (1) that source monitoring errors could lead people to misremember false evidence as real evidence and (2) that bait questions provide ‘key evidence’ to fill in the gaps of an incomplete theory of a case. In sum, bait questions have the problematic potential to shift jurors towards guilty verdicts. We suggest future research directions on bait questions, including the need for different designs to clarify why bait questions inflate guilt, and recommend practitioners avoid the use of bait questions.     

关于当前转方式调结构几个问题的思考

该文在调研的基础上,从管理通胀预期保持物价稳定,扩大消费需求和优化投资结构,加强自主创新和优化产业结构,深化农村、财税、金融和资源性产品价格改革,以及保障和改善民生促进社会和谐发展等五个方面入手,从全新的视角提出自己的看法和意见以及解决方案。     

Analysis on the Policy Effects of Strict Inflation and Flexible Inflation in Interest Rate Liberalization

This paper analyzes the policy effects of interest rate liberalization under strict inflation targeting and flexible inflation targeting, which is based on the new theory of Keynes model and the introduction of price stickiness in the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. By building, calibrating, estimating and simulating a new Keynesian DSGE model, we analyze and compare the effect of strict inflation targeting and flexible inflation targeting in the process of the interest rate liberalization. Research results show that, first of all, the strict inflation targeting regulation makes the output volatility smaller and the inflation volatility greater in face of technology shocks. Secondly, the flexible inflation target system is more conducive to controlling output and inflation in the short period when facing monetary policy shocks. Finally, the control of the strict inflation target is less from the point of view of the loss function. In other words, the central bank's loss function under the control of the strict inflation target system is small, but the flexible inflation targeting system is more conducive to controlling output and inflation in the short period.     

货币财产权、立法与自由

财产是自由的保障,货币财产权是各种财产权类型中最根本、最重要的一项权利。随着金本位制的废除和信用货币的扩张,货币当局不再受任何外在规则的纪律约束,纸币发行日益泛滥,每每诱发通货膨胀和金融危机,造成人民财富的流失。这种灾难性后果的出现,使得现行货币体制不断遭受来自法律和道德的多重质疑。而修正现行货币体制的首要途径则是通过货币立宪,确认公民的货币财产权和选择自由,并依靠不断勃兴的货币财产权抑制当局的货币公权。     

Facts versus fiction: Socio‐political and economic development of Burma under military management since 1988

The Burmese military under the command of General Saw Maung staged a coup in the name of saving the country by killing thousands of unarmed demonstrators on 18 September 1988. After forming a nineteen‐man military junta which was named the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), Burmese generals vowed to manage the country to accomplish three tasks: the restoration of law and order, the provision of safe and secure transportation, the fulfilment of the socio‐economic needs of the people. The article examines and evaluates the accomplishment of SLORC in attending to these three tasks based upon the reports given by the military regimes and its lobbyists and by the people and outside observers of Burma. The basic conclusion of the article is that there is a tremendous gap between the fictional official reports and the factual reports given by the people on the improvements in the socio‐political and economic conditions in Burma under the military management since 1988.     

Fiji Economy: Muddling Through

Abstract

Twenty-five years since the first military coup in 1987, Fiji continues to muddle through both politically and economically. The promise of a general election under a race-free constitution remains the fervent hope of all citizens. Economically the country continues to slide downwards, reflected in poor economic growth in 2010 and 2011. A poor level of private sector investment remains a feature of the macroeconomic picture, and it is unlikely to change for the foreseeable future. This article provides an overview of the Fiji economy and reflections on future prospects.