物价上涨与加息调控力度

我国央行一年内连续几次调高银行利率,但收效甚微,投资依然过热,资金流动性过剩,物价、房价涨幅加快。分析原因,在于每次加息幅度过小,市场有所适应。面对火热的股市、房市、不断上涨的物价和存款的负利率,只有加大利率调控的力度,调控效应才能显现。     

When Does Evidence of Eyewitness Confidence Inflation Affect Judgments in a Criminal Trial?

Two studies investigated perceptions of eyewitness confidence inflation: increases in a witness's confidence between the time of the identification and the trial. Experiment 1 (N = 90) demonstrated that, for White participants, assessments of the strength of the defense case, the eyewitness's view, and participants' confidence in the eyewitness's accuracy were more favorable to the defense when there was evidence that the eyewitness's confidence increased over time (mere inflation condition), compared with a control condition. In addition, assessments of the defendant's guilt and the eyewitness's accuracy were more favorable to the defense when the eyewitness was aggressively challenged about the change in her confidence report (inflation + challenge). Experiment 2 (N = 360) demonstrated that, for Hispanic participants, sensitivity to confidence inflation did not interact with manipulations of the eyewitness's or defendant's race (White vs. Hispanic). In addition, the confidence inflation effect did not replicate with the Hispanic participants. Results are interpreted in terms of the ingroup bias in legal judgments and directions for future research.     

菲利普斯曲线与"两低一高"现象--小议新经济引发的经济学理论新问题

传统的菲利普斯曲线是低失业、高通胀与高(低)增长并存,近几年美国新经济的发展打破了此现象,出现了低失业、低通胀与高增长并存的局面,即"两低一高"现象.目前,西欧各主要国的通胀率在一直下降,这就要求从美国取经在知识经济时代,各国只要抓住通胀的主、客观方面进行治理,就可能使本国的通胀在失业率降低、经济增长提高的同时降低.本文试图说明为什么菲利普斯曲线在美国新经济中发生了"新变形",以寻求启示.     

我国外汇储备增加对通货膨胀的影响及对策研究

2006年10月,我国外汇储备突破万亿美元大关。外汇储备增加将引起外汇占款增加,人民币供给量增多,从而引发通货膨胀现象。分析外汇储备激增导致通货膨胀产生的传导机制,提出合理的政策建议,对解决我国现阶段出现的通货膨胀问题具有积极的意义。     

后危机时期中国经济转型面临的三大风险及其防范

在后金融危机时期,世界经济的复苏仍存在极大的不确定性。我国在"十二五"期间要实现转方式、调结构、惠民生的重大战略目标,必须对所面临的高通货膨胀、房地产泡沫、流动性过剩等风险高度重视,做好面对复杂局势的各种风险防范。     

通货膨胀的历史必然与调控区间

通货膨胀与经济发展之间存在着高度的相关关系,是经济发展的必然结果之一,我国当前的通货膨胀从类型上来讲,应当是温和可控的,此类型的通货膨胀在一定的时期内是不可避免的,政府所能做的就是把通货膨胀控制在一个可接受的范围之内。在经济的增长率和通货膨胀率之间建立一个可以接受的区间,在此区间内,政府不必采取任何对付通货膨胀的措施,而超过临界值,就必须采取措施。     

以经济控制论管理通胀预期

心理预期对市场价格有着重要影响,＂通胀预期＂便是人们对宏观经济的负面预期。管理好＂通胀预期＂是近年宏观调控的一个重要任务。从经济控制论的理论角度分析预期如何对价格产生影响,从而在经济控制论的框架下对管理好通胀预期提出一些建议。     

西方基于选举的政治经济周期理论及其实证分析

失业率和通货膨胀率普遍被认为是宏观经济业绩的基本指标,这些变量构成了贯穿西方政治经济周期理论文献的共同主线。在一届政府当选前夕,政府会实行扩张性的经济政策,即以适度的通货膨胀为代价以便降低失业率;在当选之后,政府采取的措施是实行紧缩性的经济政策来降低实际通货膨胀率,以降低人们的通货膨胀预期,在此过程中失业率也会上升,从而引发宏观经济的周期性波动。     

Emerging Economies,Turnover Rates and Inflation Variability: A Comparison of Generalized Maximum Likelihood and SUR Models

Theoretical exposition and empirical evidence in central bank independence (CBI) literature confirm an inverse relationship between inflation and measures of CBI mostly in developed economies. Based on this ex ante information on CBI-inflation tradeoff, this paper proposes two functional forms for the diagonal and off diagonal elements in the residual covariance matrix in the estimation process. The proposed functional forms are used in a generalized maximum likelihood and then in a generalized least squares (GLS) (with the restricted covariance matrix) framework for the empirical test. The results are compared to the outcome of an SUR model (unrestricted). The tests involve 14 emerging economies and covers the period 1960–1990. Compared to SUR, majority of results of GLS model in samples with and without outliers provide stronger and more significant evidence confirming the CBI-inflation tradeoff. Notably, the standard errors of the GLS estimates are lower than that of the SUR estimates. Without outliers, the GLS estimates show even lower standard errors as compared to the outcome of the SUR model. Low standard errors provide baseline indication of more accurate estimates. This research has benefited from comments from David Tufte, and Gerald Whitney and contributions by participants at the colloquia series at the Montclair State University and the University of New Orleans.