吉林省能源消费问题及调整对策思考

吉林省是我国最重要的老工业基地之一,是工业大省、农业大省,也是能源消耗大省。吉林省工业基础好、重工业所占比重较高,在产业结构偏重的情况下,吉林省存在着能源消费结构不合理、能源消费环境污染较重等问题。吉林省要改变目前的能源消费结构现状,就要扬长避短地发挥现有优势,一方面要加大替代能源的开发力度,使清洁能源的使用比例不断提高,另一方面要提高资源利用效率,减少浪费,降低能耗和减少环境污染。     

Negotiating peace in Kosovo

We systematically analyze and forecast key developments before and during the Kosovo Crisis. Prior to the air campaign, we anticipated the breakdown of negotiations at Rambouillet and the subsequent initiation of hostilities. Without Russia as a mediator, we predicted that Milosevic would engage in military activity and strengthen his domestic control. As the war was being waged, we took a second look at settlement opportunities. Russia was identified as the key mediator needed to reach a settlement We show that a European‐led settlement offered promising prospects for peace. Finally, we demonstrate that the settlement achieved after the air war was not much different than the settlement that could have been achieved at Rambouillet The settlement on Kosovo offers only short‐term stability. To gain long‐term stability, the Serbians must either agree to the existing ethnic makeup in Kosovo or allow it to be partitioned. Otherwise, conflict in this region will likely revive.     

Conflict reduction by mutual disengagement

This study attempts to discover what variables, if any, will induce opponents to cooperate. The author isolated 12 independent variables and grouped the first five together in his refined model as variable 6. The remaining variables are: worthlessness, supervision, conspicuousness, previous neutralization, absence of internal segmentation, military potential, and tradition as a neutral. Analysis was limited to bivariate relationships between the independent and dependent variables (i.e., possible outcomes). Cases tested included examples from the outbreak of World War I to the present. The author discovered that disengagement would most likely succeed in a geographically and ideologically distinct Country, one previously neutralized, that had little military value, a politically organized population, and some military capacity. The most unpromising candidate would lack clearcut ethnic borders, internal homogeneity, and political unity. Disengagement, while no panacea, offers the advantage of many opening moves in a conflict reduction situation.     

胡志明与共产国际

越南人民的领袖胡志明生于1890年5月19日,1969年9月2日逝世。胡志明从21岁起便前往欧洲,寻求救国的道路,在长达60年的革命生涯中,有一半时间是在国外辗转奔波,其中,同共产国际的关系是他的一段重要经历。     

东盟的经济安全观

20世纪80年代以来,由于国际政治经济环境的变迁,经济安全从原来的低级政治转变为高级政治。东盟传统的国家安全观强调综合安全,尤其将军事和政治安全置于最重要地位,随着地区传统安全威胁的消除,东盟国家将经济安全视为新时期的焦点。经济发展是东盟一些威权国家政治合法性的基础,因此经济安全是维护其政治安全的重要手段。为维护各国经济安全,东盟国家一方面采取经济自由化改革参与全球化进程以便提高自身经济竞争力,另一方面实行开放地区主义策略,既依靠本地区的集体力量增强经济实力,又充分利用地区外的市场和资源。     

中日韩自贸区的可行性与经济周期规律

自2002年中日韩自由贸易区的构想提出以来,学界和决策部门对其建立的可行性仍持怀疑态度。本研究率先采用惩罚性样条滤波（Penalized Spline Filter）对中日韩实际产出变量进行分解,计算了周期项的相关系数和滚动相关性并检验了格兰杰因果关系,探讨建立三国自贸区的可行性。实证研究结果表明：中日、中韩间同期相关度低,但日韩间具有显著的同期相关性,并自1998年趋强,三者之间无格兰杰因果关系。因此,笔者认为从经济周期的协动性角度来看,建立中日韩自由贸易区的时机尚未成熟。建议可以先尝试建立日韩自由贸易区,逐步推进中日韩自贸区进程。     

印度尼西亚与中国政经关系互动60年

2010年是印度尼西亚与中国建交60周年。60年的双边政经互动关系不只是基于历史与地缘因素,也深受国家安全与经济利益的影响。     

东盟与欧盟经贸关系的现状与前景

本文首先回顾东盟与欧盟的经贸关系发展历程,然后分析、探讨东盟与欧盟贸易与投资关系的特点及其存在的问题,最后对其未来发展趋势提出几点看法。     

俄罗斯的外国投资及其调节

吸引外资是俄联邦对外经济政策的主要方针。像世界上其他国家一样,俄罗斯把外资看作是提高技术水平、促进经济发展和改造生产结构并使其现代化、掌握和使用先进的生产方法、加速与世界经济一体化的重要因素。向市场经济转轨以来,俄罗斯一直对外国投资寄予很大的希望。然而,从目前的外国投资现状看,俄罗斯的比较优势并没有得到充分发挥。为了能为外资的投入创造更为有利的气候和务件,俄罗斯还需要花大力气减少外国投资风险、提高投资效率、优化投资环境、保障投资者利益。     

基于分形理论的东南亚旅华客流空间结构演变研究

本文以1999～2010年东南亚旅华游客人次统计为样本,运用分形理论研究了东南亚旅华客流空间结构的演变及其影响因素。结果表明：东南亚旅华客流空间结构分布具有分形特征,1999～2010年间各年无标度区范围呈逐步扩大趋势,分形结构产生由局部分形→单分形→局部分形→双分形的发展变化。危机事件、旅游资源禀赋差异和区位因素是东南亚旅华客流空间结构演变的主要影响因素。