Air Campaign Duration and the Interaction of Air and Ground Forces

This article explores the role that ground troops play in aerial campaigns. Specifically, it intends to explain how ground troops affect the duration of aerial bombing campaigns. It distinguishes between the effect of ground troops on the duration of aerial campaigns that are selective and on those that are more general and less discriminate (using newly coded data on aerial strategies). The effect of ground troops may vary depending on how air power is being used. Ground troops may increase the duration of aerial campaigns in cases in which selective strategies are used during the aerial bombing campaign. In these cases, states lose the possibility of quick, “clean” victories once ground troops are introduced. In the cases of the less-discriminate bombing campaigns, the effect of ground troops is the opposite: They shorten the duration of the bombing campaign, possibly through the increased effectiveness of a combined arms approach.     

Typology of State Types: Persistence and Transition

Research on state fragility has seldom examined questions of persistence and transition of states. We develop a sixfold typology of states to examine how key structural features of states evolve and contribute to successful exits from fragility in some cases and persistence in others. Particularly worrisome is the lack of positive transition among the weakest states. Our findings are derived from a minimalist construct of a refined time series data set involving state indicators of authority, legitimacy, and capacity. Case studies of some of the more turbulent examples support our state trajectories. Additionally, changes in legitimacy most often led state transitions into or out of fragility. Implications of intervention policy for transitioning states out of fragility are addressed, and these are given particular focus since fragile states experience at least twice the intensity/incidence of internal armed conflict compared to other states.     

No News Is Good News: Mark and Recapture for Event Data When Reporting Probabilities Are Less Than One

We discuss a common, but often ignored, problem in event data: underreporting bias. When collecting data, it is often not the case that source materials capture all events of interest, leading to an undercount of the true number of events. To address this issue, we propose a common method first used to estimate the size of animal populations when a complete census is not feasible: mark and recapture. By taking multiple sources into consideration, one can estimate the rate of missing data across sources and come up with an estimate of the true number of events. To demonstrate the utility of the approach, we compare Associated Press and Agence France Press reports on conflict events, as contained in the Social Conflict in Africa Database. We show that these sources capture approximately 76% of all events in Africa but that the nondetection rate declines dramatically when considering more significant events. We also show through regression analysis that deadly events, events of a larger magnitude, and events with government repression, among others, are significant predictors of overlapping reporting. Ultimately, the approach can be used to correct for undercounting in event data and to assess the quality of sources used.     

破坏野生动物资源类犯罪若干疑难问题研究

破坏野生动物资源类犯罪为法定犯。但由于行政法、刑法以及司法解释关于野生动物犯罪相关规定存在一定的冲突,特别是在动物保护等级、保护对象、升档标准等方面,导致司法实践在法律适用方面存在众多困难。而在司法实践中,关于动物犯罪案件司法鉴定、主观明知、违法性认识、证明标准等方面也存在不同的观点。     

社会转型期社会矛盾与冲突测量方法综述

社会转型不可避免地带来不同行业、不同地域、不同部门等各种社会群体关系的不协调与矛盾。转型期社会矛盾与冲突的测量有两大方法:客观测量和主观测量。客观测量法分为两种:一为社会结构测量法;二为经济差异测量法。主观测量分为三种方法:满意度测量方法;主观幸福感测量方法;社会意识与社会态度测量。     

加强和创新社会管理——以贵州仲裁工作为视角

创新社会管理的重要内容之一就是有效化解矛盾,而仲裁作为一种带有民间性质的民商事纠纷解决机制,能够公平合理、及时有效地化解社会矛盾,它的中立性、民间性、便捷性等特点都能在社会管理中加以运用和充分发挥;仲裁工作的不断推进和仲裁调解的广泛适用也是贯彻落实科学发展观、创新社会管理的一种体现。     

犯罪学视角下的中国维稳

2010年是中国的＂维稳＂之年,也是中国维稳面临挑战之年。从犯罪学的视角分析,科学调控城市化发展速度,加快改革收入分配制度和现有户籍制度,改善流动人口的生存环境,扩大社会福利,构建新型的警民关系,强化社区和家庭建设等是减少犯罪,推动社会稳定的治本之策。     

高等教育责任实现视域下的高校德育探讨

我国高等教育承担着对国家与个人的责任,责任之间及其内部存在一定冲突,并给高校德育工作带来了一定的影响。高校德育工作必须坚持将“培养什么人”放在首位,注意平衡个人价值与社会价值,改进德育方法,着力引导学生认识伦理道德素养对自身生存与发展的重要价值,从而有效解决冲突,更好地实现自身对国家与个人的责任。     

商务英语中的跨文化交际因素影响初探

随着我国经济规模的不断发展、壮大。跨文化现象对于商业活动的影响变得越来越重要了。商务英语的学习过程中应当注意跨文化交际因素对于商务活动的影响。通过不同文化之间的沟通认同,实现交际的顺利进行。从而对商务英语教学,有着指导性的作用。     

从冲突理论视角看和谐社会之构建

分析和研究西方的社会冲突理论,认为一定程度的社会冲突有利于社会稳定,有利于推动社会发展,对我国构建和谐社会具有重要的启示。直面我国当前社会冲突的现状,认为只有正确面对社会冲突,理智地谋求冲突问题的解决方法,才能将冲突的正功能发挥出来,将冲突变为合作、和谐的动力。