The study of child soldiering: issues and consequences for DDR implementation

An increasing number of children are actively participating in armed groups, drawing attention to the issue of child soldiering from both international humanitarian organisations and the academic community. Despite this interest, there is a lack of explicit attempts to bring the insights of these two arenas together. More specifically the theoretical issues raised by the scholarly community have not been incorporated into disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) practices. This article combines these two arenas to show that questions related to age, gender, agency and the recruitment of child soldiers in particular have not yet been resolved, leading to problems in the implementation of child-centred DDR programmes.     

Just the Two of Us? Civil Conflicts,Pro-State Militants,and the Violence Premium

Quantitative literature discussing violence in civil conflicts tends towards a typical model of engagement between governments and revolutionaries. Whilst recent work has shown the significant impact of multiple anti-government groups, a further feature remains understudied—the role of pro-state militants. This article theorizes a “violence premium” when such groups arise, which leads to all connected groups devoting greater energy to conflict than they would in isolation. Employing duration analysis and data from The Troubles in Northern Ireland, where Republicans act as revolutionary insurgents, Loyalists as pro-state militants, and the British Army as government forces, the violence premium is empirically confirmed. Both Loyalists and Republicans deviate from their underlying strategies to attack more frequently when violence by their rivals increases, with Republicans and the British Army engaging in the same way. An extended analysis, accounting for the status of the victim, shows that the violence premium resulting from interaction between Loyalists and Republicans targeted only the civilian population of Northern Ireland, elucidating the sectarian component of The Troubles. These results show that including all conflict parties and considering how they are linked are important features in studies that aim to determine the net level of violence in civil conflicts.     

A Bridge over Troubled Water: Managing Parties’ Mental Illness in Mediation

One in five individuals in society has or will have a mental illness at some point in his or her lifetime. Conflict resolution theory, however, largely assumes that all individuals operate within the range of behaviors considered mentally healthy. Evidence suggests that professionals who deal with conflict, however, may have to deal with individuals who have mental health problems more frequently than would be the statistical norm. Clearly then, new theories of practice and norms of mediator behavior are needed to respond to the distinctive challenges presented by engaging with those who face mental health difficulty. This paper surveys the research on how people with mental health challenges approach and respond to conflict and provides practical advice to conflict resolution professionals on how to recognize and tailor their approach to meet the needs of these individuals.     

No more bullets for ETA: the loss of internal support as a key factor in the end of the Basque group’s campaign

The Basque separatist organisation ETA laid down its arms in 2011 after 40 years of an armed campaign for independence. It was not a consequence of political negotiations. The Basque group did not achieve its goals. Yet, it unilaterally decided to end its armed activity forever. This article analyses why and how ETA ended its armed campaign. It clarifies the events from the collapse of the last peace process in June 2007 to the announcement of the definitive end of ETA’s campaign in October 2011. It identifies the causal factors that led the Basque group towards its end. This article contends that the end of ETA’s campaign is a case of transformation triggered by its constituency’s withdrawal of support for the armed struggle. The leadership and social base of the political movement to which ETA belongs concluded that political violence was not effective anymore and, furthermore, was damaging for the Basque pro-independence movement. After an internal struggle, in which the faction advocating for exclusively political means prevailed, ETA was driven towards a unilateral abandonment of armed struggle.     

Ethnic diversity and development in Kenya: limitations of ethnicity as a category of analysis

This paper challenges the relevance of ethnic diversity in explaining the development impasse in Africa, using Kenya as a case study and arguing that the neopatrimonial and ethnic diversity theses are contradictory as explanatory variables of Africa's development crisis. The former speaks to homogeneity while the latter implies heterogeneity in the public policy process. This paper singles out the ethnic diversity thesis as the weaker of the two, arguing that ethnic groups lack a collective ethnic agenda that can be flagged as consequential for the political economy of the polity. Ethnic group intervention in the political arena is not determined by innate ethnic characteristics: it is due to the tendency for certain actors in the body politic to exploit institutional failure. With proper institutions, the assumed burden of ethnicity in African development would naturally evaporate. Focusing on supposedly ethnic problems is the wrong target.     

Corruption and identity politics in divided societies

Corruption is a major problem for populations in various parts of the world. This article argues that to understand the problems and dynamics of corruption, we need to understand how discourses and practices of corruption (and anti-corruption efforts) are intertwined with the construction and contestations of identity. Identity politics is a salient feature in peaceful political struggles, as well as in contemporary armed conflicts, which are often characterised by the politicisation of collective identity (ethnic, national, religious) for the violent pursuit of power. The article outlines and discusses four ways in which identity politics and corruption intersect. First, it points to the often blurred lines between private and collective benefit from corruption, revealing the implications of group identity for how corruption is conceptualised. Second, it shows how corruption may exacerbate grievances along identity lines. Third, it highlights how corruption can be used strategically in identity-based conflicts. Finally, it explores how corruption may encourage cross-ethnic solidarity and mobilisation that defy conflict divides.     

论新时期“无直接利益冲突”矛盾预警与应急机制

“无直接利益冲突”是众多参与者与事件本身无关,只是表达、发泄一种情绪的社会冲突。其通常表现是起哄、扎堆、看热闹,严重的可引发骚乱。社会矛盾预警应急机制可有效预防和化解“无直接利益冲突”。新时期“无直接利益冲突”呈现出的新情况、新趋势、新动向等特征,迫需构建这种机制。构建这种机制,需夯实“地直接利益冲突”预警应急的基础,建设科学、高效的矛盾预警与应急系统。     

论连结点的孤立与矫正

连结点的孤立表现为冲突规范的指引在空间和时间两个维度与案件整体缺乏联系,这是双边法律选择方法难以避免的现象。随着法律选择价值目标的演变,应允许法官在特殊案件中摆脱孤立连结点的指引,裁量适用与案件具有更加密切联系的法律。对连结点的矫正应坚持规则导向,为双边法律选择注入有限的灵活性。     

一致与冲突：政府决策的民主化与科学化

随着中国政治体制改革的不断深入推进，理论界关于政府决策民主化与科学化的研究日益升温。对于决策民主化和科学化二者之间的关系，理论界长期以来的主流观点是二者具有正相关性或一致性，但实际上二者还存在着负相关性或冲突性。全面把握二者的关系，尤其是在政府决策实践中正确处理好其负相关性或冲突性，有助于进一步提升政府决策的能力和水平，推进政府体制改革。     

美中贸易协调性的实证分析:垂直专业化视角

基于2005～2012年的月度数据进行实证分析,协整检验结果表明,美国对华出口与从中国进口存在长期稳定的协整关系。从误差修正模型看,短期内美国对华出口与从中国进口之间存在动态调整机制。根据格兰杰因果关系检验,在滞后6期内,美国对华出口与从中国进口之间只存在单向的因果关系,美国对华出口是美国从中国进口的格兰杰原因,美国对华出口增长是美国从中国进口增长的决定因素。脉冲响应函数分析表明,美国对华出口的某一冲击会给美国从中国进口增长带来同向冲击。这些实证结果表明垂直专业化分工在驱动着美中贸易,政府在制定平衡美中贸易的政策时,不应忽视垂直专业化分工以及市场对维持美中双边贸易均衡的约束机制。