ON THE USE OF THE TOTAL INCARCERATION VARIABLE IN SENTENCING RESEARCH*

This study calls into question the use of the total incarceration response variable incorporated into sentencing studies over the past 30 years. Specifically, using data from the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing (PCS), it argues–and reveals–that prison and jail represent two distinct institutions, and that the judge's decision on disposition should take that factor into account. It recommends that researchers should therefore reconsider use of the total incarceration variable, which combines prison and jail into a single response category.     

Quantifying Uncertainty in Estimations of the Total Weight of Drugs in Groups of Complex Matrices

In case practice at forensic drug departments, multiple items from one seizure are sometimes sent in with the question: what is the total amount of drugs in the seizure? This may be complicated especially if impregnated material is involved such as clothes or rubber. Measurement uncertainty is typically stable on drug percentages, not weights, and subsampling may take place. It is recognized more and more that determination and reporting of uncertainty on estimators are an essential part of obtaining scientifically sound results in the forensic field. Methodology is described to quantify uncertainty on estimations of the total drug weight in groups of complex matrices, given simple statistical models, along a subdivision of five types of cases. Given each of these types, case examples are given where uncertainty is quantified in estimations of drug weights, by means of confidence intervals. The described models are statistically sound and relatively easy to implement.     

爆炸物犯罪司法疑难问题及其解决

爆炸物犯罪的法律规定存在漏洞,刑法理论界对有关爆炸物犯罪的研究欠深、广,导致了司法实践中处理爆炸物犯罪时对犯罪对象、行为、罪数认定及刑罚裁量等出现争议和疑难。认真探讨这些问题,对丰富爆炸物犯罪理论和解决爆炸物犯罪量刑失衡具有重大意义。立法和司法解释对爆炸物的外延不周延,应从社会危害性角度考虑予以解决;对爆炸物犯罪行为认定的疑难,应从各种犯罪行为的本质特点予以认定;对罪数形态认定的疑难,应从把握事后不可罚行为和想象竞合犯等刑法理论的基础上具体分析认定;对于刑罚裁量上的失衡,应从正确认定处罚情节和正确适用司法解释来解决。     

ASSESSING AND EXPLAINING MISPERCEPTIONS OF PEER DELINQUENCY*

Peer delinquency is a robust correlate of delinquent and criminal behavior. However, debate continues to surround the proper measurement of peer delinquency. Recent research suggests that some respondents are likely to misrepresent their peers’ involvement in delinquency when asked in survey questionnaires, drawing into question the traditional (i.e., perceptual) measurement of peer delinquency. Research also has shown that direct measures of peer delinquency (e.g., measures obtained via networking methods such as Add Health), as compared with perceptual measures, differentially correlate with key theoretical variables (e.g., respondent delinquency and respondent self‐control), raising the question of whether misperception of peer delinquency is systematic and can be predicted. Almost no research, however, has focused on this issue. This study, therefore, provides detailed information on respondents’ misperceptions of peer behavior and investigates whether individual characteristics, the amount of time spent with peers, and peer network properties predict these misperceptions. Findings indicated that 1) some individuals—to varying degrees—misperceived the delinquent behavior of their peers; 2) self‐control and self‐reported delinquency predicted misperception; 3) respondents occupying densely populated peer networks were less likely to misperceive their peers’ delinquent involvement; and 4) peers who occupy networks in which individuals spend a lot of time together were more likely to misperceive peer delinquency. Implications are discussed.     

“глубокий”和“深”搭配域的认知分析

我们通过对"глубокий"和"深"搭配域的分析,发现二者在语义上具有相同的隐喻模式:空间→时间→性质。其搭配域既体现了语际共性,也反映了语际差异。对共同搭配域做认知上的分析后得出结论:汉语和俄语单式形容词搭配域的宽窄和其句法功能有密切关系。     

民法冲突解决中的利益衡量——从民法方法论的进化到解释规则的形成

社会主体多元化的利益冲突是民法视角下冲突的根本成因。通过利益衡量可以明确民法预设的秩序价值目标的所在,其方法论意义不容忽视。在长期复杂的司法适用过程中,渐次形成达致统一的规律性的处理方案,才能避免个案中利益衡量的恣意可能性,从而把超越文本上法律的利益衡量机制变成法律秩序的一个环节,而不是超越法律秩序的特例。在解释适用民法规范进行裁判的过程中,裁判者应该按照一定的论证规则和程序进行裁判,即按照法律秩序下的妥当逻辑和方法去论证其所坚持的价值取向的正当性和裁判结果的正确性。     

超法规的正当化行为论纲

超法规的正当化行为的存在根据,是由实质的违法性论所导出的。它们并未超越一切法规,有其他部门法或者习惯法上的根据,作为一种出罪路径不违反罪刑法定原则。应改变通行构成要件的排列次序,将超法规的正当化行为定位于犯罪客体要件中进行研究。     

Proficiency Testing as a Basis for Estimating Uncertainty of Measurement: Application to Forensic Alcohol and Toxicology Quantitations

Abstract: While forensic laboratories will soon be required to estimate uncertainties of measurement for those quantitations reported to the end users of the information, the procedures for estimating this have been little discussed in the forensic literature. This article illustrates how proficiency test results provide the basis for estimating uncertainties in three instances: (i) For breath alcohol analyzers the interlaboratory precision is taken as a direct measure of uncertainty. This approach applies when the number of proficiency tests is small. (ii) For blood alcohol, the uncertainty is calculated from the differences between the laboratory’s proficiency testing results and the mean quantitations determined by the participants; this approach applies when the laboratory has participated in a large number of tests. (iii) For toxicology, either of these approaches is useful for estimating comparability between laboratories, but not for estimating absolute accuracy. It is seen that data from proficiency tests enable estimates of uncertainty that are empirical, simple, thorough, and applicable to a wide range of concentrations.     

Examining Interobserver Reliability of Metric and Morphoscopic Characteristics of the Mandible

Mandibular metric and morphological characteristics have long been used for sex and ancestry estimation. Currently, there are no large‐scale studies examining interobserver agreement, particularly examining the role of observer experience. This study examines the interobserver agreement of six morphoscopic and eleven metric mandibular variables. Four observers with varied levels of experience scored 183 mandibles from the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection. Absolute agreement and consistency were evaluated with the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Additionally, technical error of measurement (TEM) and relative TEM (%TEM) were calculated for each metric variable. All analyses were conducted twice—once with all observers and again with only experienced observers. Results show mean morphoscopic agreement of 0.543 among all observers and 0.615 for experienced observers, and mean metric agreement of 0.886 among all observers and 0.911 for experienced observers. Further, no TEM exceeded 2 mm. All results were significant (p < 0.001).     

幸福测量探析与经济发展方式的转向——斯蒂格利茨委员会报告“经济与社会”共建理念的解读

经济增长的目标是发展,而幸福则是经济发展的终极目标。"民生、尊严与幸福"议题在2011年两会得以彰显,在对幸福测量研究综述之上,笔者提出了自己的幸福测量观,并经由对呼吁幸福社会建设"斯蒂格利茨-森-菲图西委员会报告"的解读去体察个中所内含的经济发展方式的转向,即在新转型时代,除了"生产性产出"的经济绩效之外,更要注重立足于为民众谋幸福的社会进步。