Optimizing risk mitigation in management of sexual offenders: a structural model

Sexual violence is an insidious and pervasive problem that insinuates itself into all aspects of contemporary society. It can neither be mitigated nor adequately controlled through current socio-legal practices. A more promising approach must embrace four integrated elements: (1) public policy, (2) primary prevention, (3) statutory management, and (3) secondary intervention. In the present paper we tackle the 3rd and 4th elements by proposing an integrated model for reducing and managing sexual violence among known sex offenders. Relying on the highly effective Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model as the core of our Sex Offender Risk Mitigation and Management Model (SORM³), we draw together evidence based practices from clinical interventions and risk assessment strategies. Developed by Andrews & Bonta (2006), RNR has a strong empirical track record of efficacy when applied to diverse samples of offenders, including sex offenders (Hanson, Bourgon, Helmus, & Hodgson, 2009). We offer a detailed structural model that seeks to provide a more seamless integration of risk assessment with management and discretionary decisions, including a primary focus on RNR-based post-release aftercare. We end with the mantra that sex offender treatment alone will never effectively mitigate sexual violence in society, since the problem is not confined to the handful of offenders who spend time in prison and are offered some limited exposure to treatment. Any truly effective model must go well beyond the management of those known to be violent and embrace a comprehensive and integrated approach that begins by recognizing the seeds of sexual violence sown by society. Such a public health paradigm places victims - not offenders - at the center, forcing society to come to address the full gamut of hazards that fuel sexual violence.     

依法行政的宪法性调适——关于行政法治模式扩展的理论解释与方向探索

"依法行政"是中国建设法治国家的基础性制度要素,但该要素所预设的严格规范框架逐渐不能适应世界范围内行政权权能结构与行政法规则体系变化的需要,也不适应我国行政体制改革的结构性需求。中国行政法改革采行功能主义路径,大力引进行政的公开性与民主性理念及其制度,对原有行政法体系形成较大冲击。"新行政法"试图进行理论回应,其根本的规范性诉求就在于"依宪行政"。这一理论与制度的变化只能回溯到宪法层面进行解释。"依法行政"必须依靠理论背景更加厚重的"依宪行政"才能够克服传统行政法治模式的危机,实现行政法治模式的扩展。本文导引出的"依宪行政"的问题域和制度域还有利于重新思考并探索一种"行政宪政主义"的宪法实施路径,因而具有更为根本的理论价值和实践意义。     

两岸无单放货场合下责任竞合的比较

对承运人而言,交货时收回正本提单具有双重法律意义,即物权意义与债权意义。承运人无单放货往往会同时侵犯提单持有人基于货物占有关系的物权与基于运输合同关系的债权,其依侵权法应承担侵权责任,而依合同法则应承担违约责任。这就涉及传统民法中一个长期争论的重要问题,即如何处理违约责任与侵权责任的竞合关系。以海峡两岸海上货物运输中的无单放货现象为研究背景,从两岸民法和海商法的现行规定、判例出发,逐一探讨责任竞合基础、承运人承责方式、责任竞合内涵与竞合模式评价等四个问题。     

国外推动创新国际化的经验与做法比较

创新国际化的概念和内涵是随着跨国公司技术创新国际化实践的发展而逐步形成的.随着技术创新国际化经验的积累和活动的展开,各国视野不再仅限于跨国公司的技术创新国际化,而是将范围扩大到了整个国家的创新国际化.各发达国家已开始不断实施创新国际化战略,形成系统的运作体系和发展模式.我国应当借鉴发达国家推动创新国际化上的经验与做法,走出一条符合我国国情的创新国际化道路.     

网络安全诊断的物元模型

基于可拓集合的基本原理提出了网络物元概念,通过网络行为关联函数建立了风险诊断模型和风险预警模型。文章指出,网络行为安全属性可以划分为安全属性、风险属性和威胁属性,并且这三种属性具有动态与演化特征。研究表明,可拓集与关联度分析是网络安全分析与控制的有效工具。     

优化城市治安防范体系 创新警务管理模式——大连市社会管理创新的理论与实践研究

文章从非平衡和可拓分析的角度分析了在治安防范体系中推行信息效能特点以及警务转换桥机制,提出在社会管理创新的需求牵引下,要想使城市治安防范体系在改革与创新中获得时效,必须解决警务管理中的不相容问题。文中论述了危机意识、信息效能、学习精神和警务模式在其中的作用,提出了一些有待研究的课题。     

民族认同与国家认同的整合模式研究

随着当今社会的快速发展,各个民族的利益诉求不断增加,民族问题不断涌现,导致认同危机的出现,这些严重损害了民族的团结,国家的安定.构建民族认同与国家认同的整合模式,是任何一个多民族国家发展所必须面对的一个重大可题.     

智力支边"毕节模式"的成功实践及启示

智力支边"毕节模式"有着许多成功的经验,但在沟通协调机制、扶贫绩效评估机制及理论研究等方面也存在明显的不足,有必要建立更为完善的智力支边扶贫工作机制,动员更多的社会资源与政府扶贫项目及资金有机结合以提高扶贫效率和成效.同时,有必要从集中在毕节试验区的智力支边扶贫实践中,总结出一些成熟的、切实可行的、有推广价值的经验,通...     

Leaders, voters and activists in the elections in Great Britain 2005 and 2010

Discussion of the relationship between parties and the electorate is often based on the notion of partisan constituencies, that parties adopt policy positions that correspond to the average position of the party supporters. In contrast, the Downsian “spatial model” assumes that parties are purely opportunistic and maneuver to gain as many votes as possible. A third, more empirical model, based on the early work of Stokes, assumes that voter choice is based on the evaluation of each of the party leader’s competence or ability to deliver policy success. Such an evaluation can be provided by individual voter overall assessment in terms of the leaders’ character traits.This paper attempts to relate these three classes of models by examining the elections in Great Britain in 2005 and 2010. Using the British Election Study, we construct spatial models of these elections in Great Britain as well as in the three regions of England, Scotland and Wales. The models incorporate the electoral perceptions of character traits. We compare the equilibrium vote maximizing positions with the partisan positions, estimated by taking the mean of each of the parties voters’ preferred positions. We define an equilibrium to be a stable attractor if the vote share at the equilibrium exceeds the share at the partisan position by a significant proportion (determined by the implicit error of the stochastic model). We infer that none of the equilibria are stable attractors, and suggest that the partisan positions are also preferred by the party activists, the key supporters of each party.     

Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model

The Seats-Votes model forecasts party seat shares in the House of Commons using data from general elections and opinion polls between 1945 and 2009. The model is built on a generalisation of the cube rule which provided a fairly accurate method of translating votes into seats when Britain was effectively a two party system prior to the 1970s. It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. The relatively small sample used to estimate the model means that predictions about the size of the parties in Parliament are quite tentative, though predictions about the likelihood of a hung Parliament are more certain.