优化城市治安防范体系 创新警务管理模式——大连市社会管理创新的理论与实践研究

文章从非平衡和可拓分析的角度分析了在治安防范体系中推行信息效能特点以及警务转换桥机制,提出在社会管理创新的需求牵引下,要想使城市治安防范体系在改革与创新中获得时效,必须解决警务管理中的不相容问题。文中论述了危机意识、信息效能、学习精神和警务模式在其中的作用,提出了一些有待研究的课题。     

民族认同与国家认同的整合模式研究

随着当今社会的快速发展,各个民族的利益诉求不断增加,民族问题不断涌现,导致认同危机的出现,这些严重损害了民族的团结,国家的安定.构建民族认同与国家认同的整合模式,是任何一个多民族国家发展所必须面对的一个重大可题.     

智力支边"毕节模式"的成功实践及启示

智力支边"毕节模式"有着许多成功的经验,但在沟通协调机制、扶贫绩效评估机制及理论研究等方面也存在明显的不足,有必要建立更为完善的智力支边扶贫工作机制,动员更多的社会资源与政府扶贫项目及资金有机结合以提高扶贫效率和成效.同时,有必要从集中在毕节试验区的智力支边扶贫实践中,总结出一些成熟的、切实可行的、有推广价值的经验,通...     

Leaders, voters and activists in the elections in Great Britain 2005 and 2010

Discussion of the relationship between parties and the electorate is often based on the notion of partisan constituencies, that parties adopt policy positions that correspond to the average position of the party supporters. In contrast, the Downsian “spatial model” assumes that parties are purely opportunistic and maneuver to gain as many votes as possible. A third, more empirical model, based on the early work of Stokes, assumes that voter choice is based on the evaluation of each of the party leader’s competence or ability to deliver policy success. Such an evaluation can be provided by individual voter overall assessment in terms of the leaders’ character traits.This paper attempts to relate these three classes of models by examining the elections in Great Britain in 2005 and 2010. Using the British Election Study, we construct spatial models of these elections in Great Britain as well as in the three regions of England, Scotland and Wales. The models incorporate the electoral perceptions of character traits. We compare the equilibrium vote maximizing positions with the partisan positions, estimated by taking the mean of each of the parties voters’ preferred positions. We define an equilibrium to be a stable attractor if the vote share at the equilibrium exceeds the share at the partisan position by a significant proportion (determined by the implicit error of the stochastic model). We infer that none of the equilibria are stable attractors, and suggest that the partisan positions are also preferred by the party activists, the key supporters of each party.     

Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model

The Seats-Votes model forecasts party seat shares in the House of Commons using data from general elections and opinion polls between 1945 and 2009. The model is built on a generalisation of the cube rule which provided a fairly accurate method of translating votes into seats when Britain was effectively a two party system prior to the 1970s. It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. The relatively small sample used to estimate the model means that predictions about the size of the parties in Parliament are quite tentative, though predictions about the likelihood of a hung Parliament are more certain.     

地方工科院校毕业设计“创新模式和创新能力”的探索与实践

毕业设计对工科院校学生创新能力的培养起着举足轻重的作用,阐述了现有毕业设计的局限性与不足之处,针对如何培养学生的创新能力进行了探讨,分析了在毕业设计类型划分、保障制度以及实施步骤等环节中的创新能力培养的方法,通过开展多种模式的毕业设计以更好地培养学生的创新能力,最后通过建立完整的毕业设计操作规范和切实可行的实施步骤,以达到改革现有毕业设计的目的。     

基于DEA模型的汽车产业集群的效率研究

本文利用数据包络分析法的CCR和BBC模型,对我国长三角等六个主要汽车产业集群及六大汽车企业集团的效率进行了实证分析。结果表明,这六个主要汽车产业集群的效率是不相同的,并由此提出了若干政策建议。     

论前期物业服务合同当事人之认定——一个合同示范文本引起的思考

《物业管理条例》第二十一条规定,前期物业服务合同的当事人为开发商与物业服务企业。但《北京市前期物业服务合同（示范文本）》却主张,业主作为甲方将前期物业管理委托给开发商,开发商作为乙方承担前期物业管理的责任,提供前期物业服务。因此,此二者在合同当事人问题上就产生了分歧。然而,无论从学理上分析,还是从实践的层面考察,第二十一条的规定均具合理性。     

针对海量数据的数字取证模型

随着互联网技术的发展,电子产品被广泛应用在各个领域。与此同时,涉及到数字证据的犯罪案件日益增多。目前,侦查取证人员面临的巨大挑战是需要在短时间内在存有海量数据的大容量存储介质中进行搜查取证活动,传统的数字取证模型难以应对。