Are you sitting comfortably? Estimating incumbency advantage in the UK: 1983–2010 – A research note

This note adapts two models commonly used to estimate the incumbency advantage that US members of Congress enjoy – the ‘slurge’ and the Gelman-King Index – to provide comparable estimates for UK MPs. The results show that Liberal Democrats enjoy extremely large such advantages on a par with those of US Congressmen of between 5% and 15% of the vote. Labour and the Conservatives have incumbency advantages at around 2% and 1% respectively. The note estimates that effects could have changed the outcome in as many as 25 seats in some elections, and that they cost the Conservatives the chance to govern alone after the 2010 election.     

Local Party System Nationalisation: Does Municipal Size Matter?

Local party systems are not necessarily copies of their country's national party system. Some national parties do not field candidates in all municipalities, while in other municipalities there are non-partisan lists/local parties. In this article it is hypothesised that the larger the municipality (in number of inhabitants), the more the local party system will resemble the national party system (and vice versa). The hypothesis is tested using data from the 2001 local elections in Denmark. For this purpose, an index of local party system nationalisation is developed. The index is formulated in general terms so as to make it applicable in other settings and in comparisons between countries and over time.     

基于过程管理的城市灾害应急管理综合能力评价体系研究

城市灾害应急管理综合能力是衡量该地区城市灾害管理水平的重要指标,建立科学合理的城市灾害应急管理能力综合评价体系是城市灾害管理的重要课题。本文借鉴了国内外城市灾害应急管理能力的研究成果,建立了基于过程管理的城市灾害应急管理综合能力评价体系,该系统包括灾前预警能力评价、灾中应急能力评价和灾后恢复能力评价等三个分系统以及12个子系统,并用综合评价表对政府部门的应急反应能力进行了实证分析。     

公众安全感指标体系的构建与评价方法研究——以社会治安秩序为视角

公众安全感是指居民对社会治安状况的主观感受和评价,它反映了公众对犯罪的恐惧程度,也成为衡量和谐社会建设的一个重要指标。建立了我国公众安全感的评价指标体系,包括四个层次和四个系统。并为该指标的理论分析提出了主成分分析和聚类分析相结合的评价方法。     

常染色体STR突变基因座父权指数计算

目的概括归纳常染色体STR突变基因座的父权指数计算方法,以在实际检案中应用推广。方法根据目前对常染色体STR基因座突变的认识,用经验递减模型从基因座突变率计算等位基因突变率,分别推导在标准三联体和二联体亲子鉴定中STR突变基因座的父权指数计算式,并举例进行演算。结果总结了在标准三联体鉴定中,只允许假设父突变和既允许假设父也允许母发生突变时,以及二联体鉴定时X和Y的计算式。结论STR基因座发生突变时计算得的父权指数明显低于未发生突变时,提示要检测更多的遗传标记才能使累积父权指数达到认定亲权关系的标准。     

Assessing the (eco)macroeconomic performance index of India: A data envelopment analysis approach

The prime objective of this article is to construct a robust macroeconomic performance (MEP) index of the Indian economy using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. Seven major macro indicators, namely, economic growth, employment rate, terms of trade, inflation rate, fiscal deficit, pollution, and climate change are used to compute MEP and Eco‐MEP indices of the Indian economy from 1980–1981 to 2018–2019. Overall, both the MEP and Eco‐MEP index scores have quite similar best performing years worst performing years, and have also captured the major events that affected adversely the Indian economy during the past decades. The trend in the overall performance of the Indian economy was better in the 1980s and the 1990s but has deteriorated since 2000. The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approaches to cointegration methods are used to test the robustness/utility of these indices. The estimated results show that MEP and Eco‐MEP have a positive impact on private investment, foreign investment inflows, foreign direct investment, and a negative effect on the current account deficit. Hence, the suggested composite MEP index is stable, robust and truly captures the economic performance of India. The constructed MEP composite index may be used by foreign investors, rating agencies, private investors, and policymakers for their planning and decision‐making processes.     

An investigation into the relationship between edge counts and the variability of the refractive index of glass. Part I: Edge morphology

The effect of glass fragment morphology on the variability of refractive index values in five different glass objects was investigated. Data are presented that suggest that the variability of refractive index values is increased when fragment edge morphology becomes unsuitable for phase contrast microscopy.     

The statistical interpretation of refractive index measurements II: The multiple source problem

The method proposed by Grove [1] for comparing measurements made on control and recovered fragments is extended to deal with the possibility that the recovered fragments may originally have come from more than one source. The cases of two and four recovered fragments are examined in detail. Simulation results are given which show that the discriminatory power of the method varies with the number of sources and with the distribution of the fragments over those sources. It is greatest when the recovered fragments come from one source.     

肉鸡脂肪肝综合征血液流变学和生化指标变化的研究

用高脂肪日粮饲喂45日龄三黄肉鸡,建立脂肪肝综合征(fatty liver syndrome,FLS)病理模型,系统观察了FLS鸡血液流变学和生化指标的变化规律。与正常对照鸡比较,FLS鸡全血黏度、血浆黏度、全血高切还原黏度、全血低切还原黏度、全血高切相对指数、全血低切相对指数显著升高(P<0.01),ESR血沉、血沉方程k值降低(P<0.01);血清甘油三酯含量、总胆固醇含量、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇含量、丙氨酸氨基转移酶活性、天门冬氨酸氨基转移酶活性以及肝脂肪含量和肝指数明显升高(P<0.01)。     

肿瘤伴失眠患者的热敏腧穴分布情况及热敏灸临床疗效观察

目的 观察热敏灸和口服艾司唑仑治疗肿瘤患者失眠的临床疗效,统计肿瘤伴失眠患者高频热敏化腧穴分布。方法 将70例肿瘤伴失眠患者随机分为对照组35例和试验组35例。对照组采用口服艾司唑仑治疗方案,该组于药物治疗展开前进行1次热敏化腧穴探查,并对热敏化腧穴予以记录;试验组进行热敏化腧穴探查并记录其热敏化腧穴后,依据探查结果选取灸感较好的两个穴位进行为期2周、每日1次的热敏灸治疗。比较两组患者治疗前后匹兹堡睡眠质量指数(Pittsburgh sleep quality index, PSQI)、焦虑自评量表(self-rating anxiety scale, SAS)、抑郁自评量表(self-rating depression scale, SDS)评分,治疗后以及随访时基于两组患者PSQI评分进行疗效比较。结果 两组患者治疗后PSQI评分均较治疗前显著减少(P<0.05);两组患者随访时PSQI评分以及治疗前与随访时PSQI评分的差值比较,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。两组患者治疗后SAS评分、SDS评分均较治疗前显著减少(P<0.05);两组患者治疗后SAS评分、...