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151.
In this paper, we leverage a 10-wave election panel to examine the relative and dynamic effects of voter evaluations of Bush, Palin, Biden, McCain, and Obama in the 2008 presidential election. We show that the effects of these political figures on vote choice evolves through the campaign, with the predictive effects of President Bush declining after the nominees are known, and the effects of the candidates (and Palin), increasing towards Election Day. In evaluating the relative effects of these political figures on individual-level changes in vote choice during the fall campaign, we also find that evaluations of the candidates and Sarah Palin dwarf that of President Bush. Our results suggest a Bayesian model of voter decision making in which retrospective evaluations of the previous administration might provide a starting point for assessing the candidates, but prospective evaluations based on information learned during the campaign helps voters to update their candidate preference. Finally, we estimate the “Palin effect,” based on individual-level changes in favorability towards the vice-presidential nominee, and conclude that her campaign performance cost McCain just under 2% of the final vote share.  相似文献   
152.
This paper asks whether international economic integration negatively affects electoral turnout. The theoretical model builds on the premise that economic integration constrains the ability of national governments to shape outcomes. Citizens are conscious of such constraints and take them into account when considering the costs and benefits of casting a vote in national elections. The result is a lower inclination to vote under conditions of high economic integration. Consequently, aggregate turnout is lower the more internationally integrated a national economy is. Analysis of aggregate data for parliamentary elections in 23 OECD democracies over the period 1965–2006 robustly supports this hypothesis. The empirical estimates suggest economic globalization as a central cause of the general decline in turnout within established democracies.  相似文献   
153.
In this paper we present the research results of key factors that determine the investment behavior of Russian companies during 2004-2008. The emphasis is made on the policy of capital expenditures. In the analysis, it included maeroeconomic, some industry factors (growth rate, spread of efficiency (ROIC-WACC), market and industry risks) as well as some internal factors related to the equity structure and the quality of corporate governance.  相似文献   
154.
In several countries, local parties have increased their share of votes in local elections. This development has received limited scholarly attention compared to the immense interest paid to the fates of national level anti-establishment parties. Against this backdrop, we ask if something distinct characterizes those who choose to vote for genuinely local alternatives compared to other anti-establishment voters. Sweden is taken as the case in focus, a country where local parties have grown in numbers and strength throughout the past three decades. We view local parties as a part of a broader ‘anti-establishment’ family, and we explore if their voters a) are similar to those who vote for the most pronounced anti-establishment party in Sweden (Sweden Democrats), or b) if local party voters are a distinct anti-establishment category in their own right. Drawing on a survey data from 49 Swedish municipalities, we find that local party voters indeed distinguish themselves from both Sweden Democrat's voters and voters for the old and established parties, thus making them a distinct anti-establishment voter category of their own. These voters distrust their local politicians but at the same time are civically engaged.  相似文献   
155.
从“没收空调案”谈起,提出正确界定公安刑事侦查行为与公安具体行政行为的问题,其关系到行政诉讼法受案范围。从理论上来讲,两者既有联系,又有区别,但在实践中两者又容易混淆。因此在具体的操作过程中,有必要利用各种方法正确把握两者的界定问题。  相似文献   
156.
如何促进员工的创新行为对组织的发展至关重要。本研究通过多源、多时点调研方式,对我国技术型企业的人力资源部门负责人及其下属员工进行问卷调查,探讨了组织实施的高绩效人力资源管理系统对员工创新行为的影响,并检验了促进性建言与抑制性建言的竞争性中介作用及心理安全感的调节作用。研究结果表明:组织实施的高绩效人力资源管理系统对员工创新行为有显著正向影响;促进性建言和抑制性建言在高绩效人力资源管理系统与员工创新行为间表现出部分中介作用;心理安全感调节了高绩效人力资源管理系统与促进性建言之间的关系;同时,心理安全感还调节了促进性建言对高绩效人力资源管理系统与员工创新行为关系的中介作用。  相似文献   
157.
This study explored whether the rational (certainty of punishment) and nonrational (criminal thinking) aspects of antisocial decision‐making interact. A convenience sample of 319 undergraduates (106 men, 213 women) completed a measure of criminal thinking and responded to three fictional vignettes (i.e., cheating on a final examination in a class they were in jeopardy of failing, stealing $50 off a table in a dorm room, and selling marijuana for a friend) at three different levels of risk or certainty of apprehension (50%, 10%, and 1%). Results indicated that participants reported that they would be more likely to engage in antisocial behavior when the certainty of getting caught was low and the level of proactive (P) or reactive (R) criminal thinking was high. An interaction between certainty and criminal thinking was also observed in which the gap between lower and higher criminal thinking respondents grew as the probability of getting caught fell.  相似文献   
158.
Political representation in European democracies is widely considered partisan and collectivist. This article, however, stresses that there is more to the representative process in European democracies than just its textbook version. It emphasizes the role of geographic representation as a complementary strategy in party‐dominated legislatures that is characterized by two distinct features. First, legislators employ distinct opportunities to participate in legislative contexts to signal attention to geographic constituents without disrupting party unity. Second, these activities are motivated by individual‐ and district‐level characteristics that supplement electoral‐system‐level sources of geographic representation. We empirically test and corroborate this argument for the German case on the basis of a content analysis of parliamentary questions in the 17th German Bundestag (2009–13). In this analysis, we show that higher levels of localness among legislators and higher levels of electoral volatility in districts result in increased geographic representation.  相似文献   
159.
目的探讨精神分裂症者凶杀行为特征及影响刑事责任能力评定的因素。方法自制调查表收集并比较经司法鉴定为具有凶杀行为的精神分裂症嫌疑人(n=110)与具有凶杀行为的无精神病者(n=70)的一般人口学资料、临床资料、作案行为特征、刑事责任能力等指标,并采用Logistic回归分析法探讨影响精神分裂症嫌疑人刑事责任能力的相关因素。结果精神分裂症组和无精神病组在年龄、性别、文化程度、婚姻状态方面差异无统计学意义(P0.05),两组在案发前思维障碍、情绪状态、社会功能等疾病相关因素方面差异均存在统计学意义(P0.05),并在攻击行为史、作案先兆、诱因、预谋、作案动机、作案对象、环境辨认、自我保护等一些与案情有关的特点上存在差异(均P0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,精神分裂症组的刑事责任能力与案发前思维障碍、情绪状态、社会功能、动机、预谋、自我保护性等因素有关(P0.05)。结论为提高对具有凶杀行为的精神分裂症嫌疑人刑事责任能力评定的准确性,应综合考虑相关精神病理因素及作案特征的影响。  相似文献   
160.
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