Bringing the Insurgents Back In: Early Wars in British India

What role do weaker actors play in determining the outcomes of irregular wars? The literature on counterinsurgency outcomes has tended to explain weak-side victory either as a result of informational asymmetries caused by constraints on counterinsurgent forces, or as a result of suboptimal strategic choices by the state. We suggest that this underplays the role of insurgents themselves; we attempt to “bring the insurgents back in,” giving variation in insurgent polity a role in explaining their own victories and defeats. In order to do so, we focus inductively on a relatively novel pool of cases: Great Britain's wars in India from the mid-eighteenth to early nineteenth centuries. Doing so allows us to hold the counterinsurgent side constant while evaluating variance among the insurgents themselves. We find that variance on the insurgent side is indeed significant in determining outcomes, and suggest possible reasons why this occurs.     

Effect of testing and social distancing measures on COVID-19 deaths in India: Role of pre-existing socio-economic factors

We examine the effect of testing and social distancing measures on the severity of COVID19 across Indian states during the 68th day nationwide lockdown period. We also explore whether pre-existing socio-economic factors such as quality of health care and the ability to practice social distancing influences the effect of these policy measures across states. Using daily level data between April 1 and May 31 for 18 of the major states, we find that both testing and social distancing have a negative effect on COVID-19 fatalities in India. Further, testing is more helpful in reducing CFR for states with lower per capita health expenditure and weaker medical infrastructure. This highlights how ramping up testing can aid states that have a weak health care system through the detection of infection, contact tracing and isolation. In contrast, social distancing measures are more effective in states that are less populous and have lesser people dwelling in single-room houses. Our results confirm the role of pre-existing institutional factors in shaping the effect of policy actions on health outcomes.     

印度与美日海洋安全互动:进攻性现实主义视角

尽管印度并非米尔斯海默所界定的大国,但并不妨碍印度在对外关系中采取进攻性现实主义的外交策略。从历史传统来看,印度主要采取借势战略的进攻性现实主义策略。借势战略之所以成为进攻性现实主义策略,不仅在于其为获取权力服务,还在于特别重视军事能力的准备与运用。通过审慎分析可以发现,借势战略的收益受诸多变量的影响,其中尤以地缘优劣、国家能力强弱、权力权重、国际制度、队友考量、目标或非目标等影响最为突出。印度与美日海洋安全互动正是其对进攻性现实主义借势战略策略的运用,在该借势战略框架中,印度为施动者,针对目标为中国,借势对象为美国、日本,收益目标包括安全、发展与权力,手段则重视军事能力的准备与扩张。正是基于借势战略,印度与美日的海洋安全互动取得了令人瞩目的进展,尤其在推动印太地缘政治形态、共同应对中国的海洋"挑战"、多边联合军演制度化、军事装备与技术贸易等方面令人印象深刻。不过,根据借势战略收益的框架进行分析,印度与美日海洋安全互动的借势战略收益是复杂的,大致可以分为正向收益、不确定性收益和负向收益。于中国而言,对印度的进攻性现实主义策略应当有清醒的认识,并做好相关防范。