Voter overrepresentation,vote misreporting,and turnout bias in postelection surveys

Figures from postelection surveys often grossly overestimate election turnout. Two distinct phenomena are responsible for this gap: overrepresentation of actual voters and vote misreporting by actual nonvoters among survey respondents. Previous accounts of turnout bias are inconclusive in that they either focus on a single component, or fail to separate between the two. In this paper, we formally decompose turnout bias in election surveys into its constituent parts, assess their empirical prevalence and heterogeneity using an extensive collection of 49 vote validation studies from six countries, and employ Bayesian meta regression techniques to account for cross-study differences. Our results indicate that both election and survey characteristics such as actual voter turnout and survey response rates differentially affect the components of turnout bias. We conclude with a discussion of the threats and potentials of our findings for survey-based comparative electoral research.     

Autonomous Local Climate Change Policy: An Analysis of the Effect of Intergovernmental Relations Among Subnational Governments

Local governments have emerged as important players in climate change governance, both at home and on the international stage. Likewise, action by states and provinces has been increasingly highlighted, particularly as national actors have moved slowly to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But to what extent do local governments act independently from state and provincial governments in the area of climate change mitigation? Using an explicit process tracing approach, the article tests two hypotheses regarding the influence of upper level subnational governments on local policy. In Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, a city that is a climate change leader, provincial government intervention cannot explain the results of climate change mitigation policy making. This suggests that local governments can exercise an important degree of autonomy over climate change policy, but also implies that where municipalities are less independently committed to climate action, active upper level government intervention will likely be needed.     

Party animals,career changers and other pathways into parliament

Research on parliamentary careers has paid little attention to variations in pre-parliamentary career patterns and their value in explaining legislators’ parliamentary success. Using sequence and cluster analysis, this article identifies typical career tracks taken by Party Animals, Local Heroes, Late Bloomers, Land Legislators, High-Flyers and Career Changers based on a comprehensive dataset of German parliamentarians’ biographies (1998–2014). The analysis confirms the role of the party as the primary career facilitator before and within parliament. Nonetheless both Career Changers and High-Flyers climb the greasy pole all the way to the national parliament without much service to the party. The former type, however, suffers from a lack of networks and experience, which is reflected in the limited career success within parliament. This article demonstrates that the use of sequence analysis on career paths offers a promising approach in distinguishing and explaining the opportunities, choices and obstacles MPs face in parliament.     

存在决定意识基础上对学术和政治统一性的关注——高校师生思想变化特点探求

高校师生思想状况的跟踪调查已有多年,研究其变化的规律特点尚待深入。从10年问卷数据看,高校师生对当今中国发展状况高度认可,同时也显现出对个人权益发展空间的更多关注。从整个新时期跨度看,30年中国改革开放的成功实践获国人高度认可,但纷繁的学术思潮对中国的现实存在也有不同诠释,它们构成了高校师生思想变化的肯定否定交响曲。高校师生思想的互动及其与社会的互动,体现出存在决定意识基础上对学术和政治统一性的关注与追求。     

Cultural Policy and Governance: Reviewing Policies Related to Cultural and Creative Industries Implemented by the Central Government of Taiwan Between 2002 and 2012

Cultural and creative industries have exhibited rapid changes in recent years, and public sectors worldwide have expanded interest in policies related to these industries as a means of promoting culture, innovation, and economic vitality. This article argues that the cultural values promoted by and economic significance of cultural and creative sectors are essential to the formation of policy and to the development of new industries. This article offers insight into cultural policy that has governed regional and local development, and addresses academic debates about policy related to cultural and creative industries based on several cultural, economic, and geographical factors. In addition, this article presents the results of analyzing various theories and case studies, based on how the Central Government of Taiwan (CGT) has adopted policies to promote cultural and creative industries. The research results link areas of cultural and economic development with policies enacted by the CGT. Ideas concerning the cultural ministry, industrial development, civic boosterism, subsidies, regional development, creative clusters, tourists and tourism businesses, and export markets are areas of emphasis in this study.     

Beyond (and Within) City Limits: Climate Policy in an Intergovernmental System

This analysis explores the role of city‐level and state‐level variables to explain why some cities make more progress on climate‐related policy implementation than others. Using multilevel modeling, we find little support for the influence of state factors on local government leadership among the 812 cities in the dataset, but local government institutional and community variables are strongly associated with climate policy initiatives. We argue for a rethinking of the notion of the limited and constrained city and suggest that, in the realm of climate protection and environmental policy, cities are leading a bottom‐up federalism. Moreover, where some political analysts and scholars have argued that climate protection and environmental policies may not be economically rational for cities to pursue, we theorize that cities are acting locally to further their self‐interest in an increasingly global economy.     

On the Progress of Women/Gender Studies in China from the Collection of Women＇s Studies ——Analysis of the Changes in the Columns, Themes and Contents ill the Past 20 Years

本文对《妇女研究论丛》创刊20年来的栏目变化、刊文情况以及主题与内容进行分析,探讨中国妇女/性别研究进展。结论认为,中国妇女/性别研究经历了由浅入深、不断走向成熟的过程,学术性和实践价值都在不断增强。但仍需进一步加强妇女/性别研究的理论创新,加强有关妇女发展和性别平等的重大现实问题研究,加强妇女发展与性别平等法律与政策研究,促进中国妇女/性别学科建设。     

我国行政学界腐败研究的现状分析

腐败造成对政治、经济、社会等领域的巨大腐蚀与破坏,是我们这个时代面临的最大挑战之一。研究腐败的成因、现状、对策等问题,提出遏制腐败的对策,是历史和社会提出的重要课题。国内学界对此进行了深入研究,并且有大批学术成果面世。为推动腐败研究的深入进行,通过对发表于国内行政学界主要期刊上的近一百多篇学术论文的实证分析,总结与综述现阶段腐败研究现状的若干特征和理论观点,并由此分析得出相关的研究结论。     

将妇女/性别研究纳入中国社会科学研究的主流

本文基于在中共中央党校、中国社会科学院及全国8个省、区、市举办的11次调研座谈会和2004年12月中国妇女研究会和全国妇联联合主办的“推动妇女研究进入社科研究和学科建设主流的高层论坛”的研讨,阐述推动妇女/性别研究进入中国社会科学研究主流的重要性和必要性,在此基础上,提出具有可操作性的对策建议。     

闽台冥婚旧俗之研究

文章以录自福建(包括台湾)方志和谱牒的明、清、民国时期之冥婚案例为据,就迁葬与归葬、嫁殇和嫁于殇而言之,描述和论述闽、台冥婚旧俗之种种情况:尸归夫家、身死夫家而葬之,上门守贞、望门守贞,从安排死者联姻到包办生者与死者缔婚,以及合丧、苗媳守贞、过门待嫁而嫁于殇、延婿入赘而嫁于殇、夫家移柩从于女而合葬等特殊事例。归葬和嫁于殇专以未婚女性的性命和幸福为牺牲,是冥婚旧俗极端劣质化的产物。