试论公安决策情报工作

公安决策情报工作是直接服务于公安决策的一项基础性工作,具有目标明确、突出服务、突出应用的特点。它服务公安决策,具有耳目、预测、参谋、反馈、宣传等功能。做好公安决策情报工作,应坚持以马克思主义为指导、坚持实事求是、坚持理论与实践相结合、坚持深入实际、坚持科学真理等原则。     

中国妇女参政十年回顾与评估

该文对于1995年至2005年的中国妇女参政进行回顾评估,从四个方面展开:第一,将十年妇女参政置于解放后的历史背景下,描述加强制定性别保障政策的意义和实践。第二,发现女性民主参与对我国公共政策推进的价值。第三,与国际社会妇女参政进行比较,与我国民主党派进行比较,分析这十年妇女参政停滞不前的状况和原因。第四,分析参政女性在权力结构中的边缘地位,认为导致女性政治参与更多表现出的是非权力的外围参与,对公共政策的影响效果有限。     

韩国文化产业的发展及启示

在新经济时代背景下,整个人类社会环境发生了极为深刻的变化,文化在综合国力竞争中的地位和作用更加凸显,发展文化产业也是推进现代经济社会可持续发展的必然要求。当前,很多国家都把文化产业作为核心产业来发展,把文化贸易作为国家战略来推进。其中,韩国自亚洲金融危机以来,十分重视文化产业的发展,视之为支柱产业。韩国的文化产业管理与发展模式,是政府诱导、私人兴办。实践证明,这种模式取得了巨大的成功,为韩国创造了巨大的经济价值,赢得了国际声誉。因此,深入分析韩国文化产业的发展机制,并加以借鉴,对创新和发展我国文化产业具有重要的现实意义。     

Governance and Regulation of the Peruvian University System: Overcoming Reform Resistance through Quality Assurance Policies

This article examines the new governance of the Peruvian university system, which evolved in response to market liberalisation and weak quality assurance mechanisms. New actors and commercial interests emerged, building their network of relationships within the political arena. With the passing of a new Universities Law in 2014, ambitious reforms were set in motion, designed to reverse the decline in the quality of higher education. This study examines these reforms, focusing on whether and how they are changing the governance and structure of the system. It also identifies some conceptual and design flaws, such as the weaknesses of the main steering body and the accreditation regime, as well as limitations on the independence of the regulatory agency.     

提升女性就业和生育兼容性的路径选择——基于对国外家庭支持政策制度设计的分析

家庭支持政策是影响女性就业和生育兼容性的关键因素。公共托育服务的普及、托育成本的下降、托育开放时间的延长以及生育假期制度有利于提高女性就业和生育的兼容性。因此,应对托育制度、生育假期和生育津贴制度进行完善,并对贫困生育女性提供托育支持和技能培训,以提高我国女性就业和生育的兼容性,优化“全面二孩”政策的实施效果。     

北京青年发展状况调查报告

为推动北京青少年工作的创新发展,全面深入跟踪研究北京青少年的发展动态,对北京青年群体开展了大规模的青年发展状况调研活动。调查涉及个人需求、社会需求、"十二五"与青年等多个层面,个人需求涉及到知识文化诉求、高质量高层次的闲暇生活、择业取向;社会需求涉及到社会组织认可、政治民主评价、媒体导向、理想信仰、社会和谐、社会保障、择偶观等。根据调查数据及分析,文化需求成为青少年发展不可规避的主要问题,在"十二五"期间,对于作为时代先锐和中坚力量的青少年,应对其各种需求深入了解,并切实提出一些具有借鉴意义的政策措施。     

策略人和策略决策模型:草原管理的智能体模拟分析

传统决策理论忽视了对人的策略性行为和策略决策的考察。本文通过对草原管理的智能体模拟分析,发展了策略人和策略决策新模型,并重点研究了策略人的四种典型策略决策:策略性投票、掩盖性、交易性和学习性策略决策。智能体模拟分析发现,在特定条件下,策略人的策略决策深刻影响个体的具体行动,并进而影响个体的行动结果(例,草原的可持续发展)。进而探讨了通过政策或制度安排来利用策略人的策略决策谋取预期政策或制度收益的可能性和其现实响应,并与策略人的四种典型策略决策相对应,依次讨论了策略约束性、保护性、诱导性以及学习性四种政策或制度安排。     

How foreign policy recommendations are put together: A computational model with empirical applications

This paper presents and applies empirically a computational model of the way in which bona fide high level foreign policy recommendations by U.S. policy makers are assembled. We begin by pointing out that policy making can be seen as the connection of certain strings of words to other strings. We then discuss how these connections constitute certain types of foreign policy making phenomena as such. To theorize about such connections, one first needs to specify essential features of these phenomena, and we do so for one phenomenon: bona fide recommendations. We next turn to a discussion of the theory that links together the categories by which these features are represented. That theory explains how certain strings of words are assembled into new proximate goals, missions, and tools. The theory can be modeled computationally using the programming language Scheme, and we next present that model. We conclude by presenting a run of the model, showing the close fit between actual and generated strings.     

The Taliban: a new proxy for Iran in Afghanistan?

Abstract

Iran has pursued a highly contradictory policy towards Afghanistan. On the one hand, it became a significant beneficiary of the overthrow of the Taliban regime by the US-led military intervention in 2001 in Afghanistan. The new Afghan government established cordial ties with Iran, allowing it to expand its political, economic and cultural influence in the country. Yet Iran has also provided significant support to the Taliban in its campaign to violently upend the political, social and economic processes in the country. This article examines the underlying domestic and regional security dynamics that contribute to this contradictory behaviour. It offers an assessment of how tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic, as well as Tehran’s growing threat perception following the rise of the Islamic State – Khorasan in 2014, impact on Iran’s policy towards the Taliban. The paper argues that Tehran views the Taliban as an instrument to disrupt the influence of other actors in Afghanistan. The instrumentalisation of the Taliban, however, is likely to be counterproductive for Iranian security in the long run as it contributes to Afghanistan’s instability and insecurity and undermines Iran’s own long-term interests.