The British general election: Synthetic forecasts

Election forecasting work, in Britain and elsewhere, has been confined mainly to traditional approaches – statistical modeling or poll-watching. We import a new approach, which we call synthetic modeling. These models, developed out of forecasting efforts from the American 2012 presidential election, we are currently testing in a comparative European context. In this exercise, we apply the strategy to forecasting British general elections, in particular the upcoming 2015 contest. These synthetic forecasts come from hybrid models blending structural knowledge with contemporary public opinion. We generate ongoing nowcasts, from six months prior, to one month before, Election Day itself.     

Brain Fluid Content Related to Body Position and Postmortem Interval – An Animal Model

Adult male Sprague Dawley rats were euthanized and placed in a horizontal or vertical (head‐down) position at room temperature, after which brain fluid content was measured by a moisture analysis technique at variable time points. No significant difference in brain fluid content was observed between horizontal and vertical postmortem positions. A significant increase in brain fluid content was demonstrated 3, 6, and 24 h after death, with maximal fluid content observed at 24 h. Specifically, the brain fluid content of control animals was 77.79 ± 0.36%, increasing to 80.05 ± 0.22% at 24 h (p < 0.0001). This study has demonstrated no significant differences in brain fluid content related to postmortem position, suggesting that a head‐down position is not associated with increased brain fluid content or swelling. However, significant temporal increases in brain fluid content after death, most likely related to cerebral liquefaction, occur.     

液化石油气中毒死亡兔的法医病理学研究

目的观察新西兰兔在液化石油气中毒后不同组织的病理学特征,探讨其在日常法医鉴定工作中的应用价值。方法健康新西兰兔42只,随机分为3组:轻度中毒组6只,中毒死亡组30只,窒息死亡组6只。在中毒和致死过程中进行行为学观察,分析心血中液化石油气浓度,中毒死亡组和窒息死亡组进行大体解剖形态学和组织病理切片观察及心血检验。结果轻度中毒组在吸入少量液化石油气后会表现为呼吸加快、站立、伸舌、磨牙等兴奋的状态;中毒死亡组尸体解剖主要表现皮肤、肌肉呈土黄色,气管、支气管出血明显,肺气肿明显;中毒死亡组心血中可检验出液化石油气成分。结论新西兰兔液化石油气中毒的特征主要表现为皮肤、肌肉呈土黄色,气管、支气管出血明显,心血可检出液化石油气成分。我们推断液化石油气的神经毒性与缺氧可能是液化石油气中毒死亡的机制。     

时代课题与马克思主义中国化的发展逻辑

马克思主义中国化的历程就是不断解决中国时代课题的历程,中国化马克思主义理论体系作为马克思主义中国化的理论结晶,正是在不断定位每个时代的历史方位,解决时代突出矛盾,破解时代痼疾的实践中形成和发展起来的,它围绕着中国革命、建设和改革的时代课题,不断探索和解答了什么是马克思主义、怎样对待马克思主义,什么是社会主义、怎样建设社会主义,建设什么样的党、怎样建设党,实现什么样的发展,怎样发展这四大基本问题。     

论联合国大陆架界限委员会在外大陆架划界中的作用——兼谈中国及周边国家的外大陆架申请

《海洋法公约》关于外大陆架申请期限的规定,导致大批国家近期向联合国大陆架界限委员会提出了申请。大陆架界限委员会的主要职能是在审议沿海国提交的划界案的基础上,就有关划定外大陆架外部界限的事项向沿海国提出建议。大陆架划界委员会所做出的建议既非一个司法式的判决,又非一个纯粹的参考意见。沿海国基于委员会的建议而划定的外大陆架外部界限具有"确定性和拘束力"。在当前的情势下,中国在掌握充分的科学技术数据编写好我们自己的外大陆架划界申请案的同时,还应注意妥善处理与日本、菲律宾、越南等周边一些国家之间的相关争端,以更好地维护我国的主权和国家利益。     

俄国近代自由主义的历史变迁与影响探析

俄国自由主义是俄国对西方的感应和国内的变迁共同作用的混合产物,它是以欧洲自由主义的变异形态即＂不充分的自由主义＂存在并发挥作用的。从短时段看,俄国近代自由主义随着1918年立宪会议被解散而走向终结;但从长时段看,自由主义作为俄国近代化的产物,它随着俄国近代化的向前发展而逐渐融入俄国社会,成为俄国近代以来政治文化传统的重要组成部分。     

"战略时间差"与中国的战略安全

国际关系中的时间包括时间点、时间段和时间过程。从国际博弈的时间长度来看,既有宏观时间的博弈,也有微观时间的博弈,二者都有可能产生战略性的影响。纵观古今中外历史,把握“战略时间差”虽然不一定能做到“不战而屈人之兵”,但能够做到以更小的代价获得博弈的优势地位。中国的战略安全是与战略机遇期联系在一起的,过去四十多年中国发展和大国成长战略机遇的获得主要由于技术革命、权力转移和西方的战略失误三个因素,但中国在新时代需要主动通过把握和运用“战略时间差”来塑造战略机遇。从总体战略来看,中国仍然需要争取和平的国际环境,以彰显中国在走向世界舞台中央时的世界担当;要尽力争取所有的国际博弈尤其中美博弈为正和博弈,以化解既有主导国对正在崛起的中国的担心和不信任;关键还要着力中国的内部发展,这是获得战略机遇期的实质性内容。把握所有“战略时间差”的最终目标是实现中华民族的伟大复兴,在世界舞台上和平崛起。     

Comparative and Correlation Studies of Biochemical Substances in Vitreous Humor and Synovial Fluid

Vitreous humor (VH) and synovial fluid (SF) become optional postmortem samples for biochemistry investigation. However, few studies have explored SF as a potential source, and there is still controversy whether the biochemical concentrations in bilateral VH are the same. We explored the concentrations of biochemical substances in both VH and SF, and compared between both sides and between the fluids. We also correlated the biochemical concentrations in both fluids. All samples were centrifuged after collection and the supernatant fluids were used for the analysis. The results indicated no significant difference in the constituent concentrations between the fluids from both sides (p > 0.05). Sodium, potassium, chloride, and magnesium concentrations were significantly higher in the VH, but in vice versa for glucose, uric acid, and creatinine concentrations (p < 0.001). Sodium, potassium, glucose, lactate, urea, uric acid, and creatinine concentrations between both fluids showed significant correlation (p < 0.05), but not chloride and magnesium concentrations.     

Identification of Eight Synthetic Cannabinoids,Including 5F‐AKB48 in Seized Herbal Products Using DART‐TOF‐MS and LC‐QTOF‐MS as Nontargeted Screening Methods

Synthetic cannabinoids are sprayed onto plant material and smoked for their marijuana‐like effects. Clandestine manufacturers modify synthetic cannabinoid structures by creating closely related analogs. Forensic laboratories are tasked with detection of these analog compounds, but targeted analytical methods are often thwarted by the structural modifications. Here, direct analysis in real time coupled to accurate mass time‐of‐flight mass spectrometry (DART‐TOF‐MS) in combination with liquid chromatography quadruple time‐of‐flight mass spectrometry (LC‐QTOF‐MS) are presented as a screening and nontargeted confirmation method, respectively. Methanol extracts of herbal material were run using both methods. Spectral data from four different herbal products were evaluated by comparing fragmentation pattern, accurate mass and retention time to available reference standards. JWH‐018, JWH‐019, AM2201, JWH‐122, 5F‐AKB48, AKB48‐N‐(4‐pentenyl) analog, UR144, and XLR11 were identified in the products. Results demonstrate that DART‐TOF‐MS affords a useful approach for rapid screening of herbal products for the presence and identification of synthetic cannabinoids.     

Changes in Attenuated Total Reflection Fourier Transform Infrared Spectra as Blood Dries Out

The time since deposition (TSD) of a bloodstain is a valuable piece of evidence for forensic scientists to determine the time at which a crime took place. The objective of this study was to determine whether attenuated total reflection (ATR) Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy could be used to estimate the TSD of a bloodstain in a relatively early period (from 0 min to the time required for the bloodstain to dry out). For this purpose, we used ATR‐FTIR to study the variation in absorbance at certain wavelengths as rat and human blood sample dried out. The absorbance at 3308/cm (A3308) was found to have a close correlation with the TSD during this time period, and the changes in A3308 during the drying of rat and human blood drops under the same controlled conditions showed similar results. The current study indicates that ATR‐FTIR spectroscopy has potential as a tool for estimating TSD at early time periods of blood deposition.