Honeymoon or consolidation,or both?: Time dependence of democratic durability

Much research has been done to identify factors that facilitate or prevent democratic breakdown. Little attention, however, has been paid to the question of whether and how the baseline risk level (after controlling for the impacts of relevant factors) changes over time. Using a flexible parametric survival model, I analyse the duration of 149 democratic periods (1946–2008) and demonstrate that the baseline risk has an inverted-U shape, which provides evidence for the honeymoon effect and democratic consolidation. This finding has an important policy implication for democratic assistance programmes.     

Trends in victimization in schools and elsewhere, 1974–1981

Trends in the rate of victimizations of juveniles in three settings-schools, homes, and streets/parks-are examined monthly during the period 1974–1981. The relationship between in-school victimization rates and those occurring outside of school are analyzed with multivariate ARMA models informed by previous research on school victimization (Gottfredson and Gottfredson, 1985) and an importation perspective on the source of crime and victimization in institutions such as schools. Results indicate that the overall in-school victimization rate remained relatively stable during this period but that victimization rates of juveniles in other settings had significant effects on in-school victimizations. This suggests that underlying causes of victimization in general are important determinants of victimization in schools. These results are limited, however, as we examine these sources of victimization only indirectly via relationships among the different victimization rates in dynamic models and by the aggregate nature of the monthly data from the National Crime Survey.     

纸张信息在文件检验工作中的应用

纸张信息在文件检验工作中可用于对文件制成时间的判定,人为老化文件的识别,擦刮文件、消退文件、添改文件、拼补文件的识别,并可作为笔迹检验中同一认定的辅助工具。     

特殊文件相对形成时间的鉴定

伪造、变造、异常处理文书的书写时间鉴定在诉讼中的作用越来越重要。笔者在多年的文书鉴定工作中曾遇到多起特殊处理的文件,如人为老化文件、塑封文件,污染文件以及书写于传真纸、宣纸等特定材料上的文件,在对这些文件的检验过程中,笔者进行了部分研究,获得一些实际体会。     

A model for using time out as an intervention technique with families

Using time out to interrupt escalating conflict is an important first step in treating couples and families where physical and emotional abuse is present. Since a time out failure can jeopardize further treatment, developing effective methods for using time out is a therapeutic priority. By interpreting the family's failed attempts as skill deficits, their efforts can be reframed to facilitate their acceptance of new time out methods. These methods are integrated into a model which outlines six hierarchical levels of supplemental control needed to inhibit destructive behavior. The model provides guidelines and establishes incentives for developing a time out strategy appropriate to the family's current level of control. It is designed to guide therapists in helping families strengthen their skills and choose an alternative time out strategy when an initial method fails.     

大鼠创伤性脑损伤后Bcl-2及Fas-L的表达

目的 观察大鼠创伤性脑损伤后,脑组织中Bcl-2及Fas-L不同时间的表达变化,探讨其与脑损伤经过时间的关系。方法 自由落体法制作大鼠脑创伤模型,在伤后不同时间处死动物并取材后,进行Bcl-2、Fas-L免疫组织化学(SP法)和HE染色观察;图像处理大鼠脑挫伤后不同时间Bcl-2及Fas-L免疫反应阳性细胞并进行统计学分析。结果 染色阳性细胞主要分布在挫伤灶的周围。Bcl-2在伤后30min即有阳性表达,后逐渐加深;至伤后4h达高峰,然后随时间延长,阳性细胞染色强度逐渐减弱。脑挫伤后30min,损伤灶的周围即出现Fas-L阳性表达,随后呈缓慢增长;从伤后4h,Fas-L阳性反应的程度及数量逐渐显著增加。结论 脑挫伤后Bcl-2和Fas-L的表达在伤后不同时间,呈现一定的规律性变化。     

应用ELISA测定成人皮肤切创纤维连接蛋白

应用双抗体夹心酶联免疫吸附剂测定法（ELISA），定量研究了12例成人腹部2小时以内手术切创皮肤可检测的Fn。实验批内变异系数＜5％，批间变异系数＜10％，检测Fn浓度范围3．91～1000ng／ml。结果：成人腹部每克皮肤可检测Fn含量为7．5920±1．7364μg（M±SD）；随着损伤时间延长，不同时间段创伤局部皮肤Fn的含量逐渐升高；各不同时间段与损伤即刻皮肤Fn含量的差值和损伤时间之间存在直线相关（r=0．9843）。经方差分析处理，发现创伤局部皮肤Fn含量在损伤经历30分钟后，有显著增加。本此结果可为推断切创形成的时间提供参考数据。     

雪苑社与复社关系考辨

雪苑社是明末清初有着重要影响的著名文人集团,在它是否参加复社这一重大问题上,学术界存在着较大的分歧.雪苑社参加了复社的金陵大会及复社在北京组织的江北应社,其时间皆可考,因而雪苑社为复社分社可得到确证.雪苑社成员还参加了复社南京<留都防乱公揭>事件等重要活动,与复社重要成员亦有频繁的交往.在复社的系统格局方面,今人多恪守十六分社之说,此与实际情况并不符合,实有进一步研究之必要.     

The criminal career: Estimates of the duration and frequency of crime commission

This paper deals with measuring two dimensions of the criminal career: residual duration and frequency. It reports results from estimating the parameters of a model in which offenders have a probability of desisting from further participation in crime following a conviction and, if they persist, a rate of crime commission. The probability of desisting and the rate of commission are seen as varying with offenders' personal characteristics and criminal records. Moreover, this paper discusses the difficulty of estimating models in which failure to commit a new crime might be attributable either to termination of the criminal career or to a censored follow-up period. The paper reports both successful and unsuccessful estimation attempts and discusses complications when distinguishing empirically between duration and frequency.     

Credible Criminal Enforcement

Economic models of crime and punishment implicitly assume that the government can credibly commit to the fines, sentences, and apprehension rates it has chosen. We study the government’s problem when credibility is an issue. We find that several of the standard predictions of the economic model are altered when commitment is taken into account. Specifically, when only fines are used, commitment results in a lower apprehension rate and hence a higher crime rate. However, when jail is used (with or without fines), apprehension rates and jail terms may be higher or lower compared to the optimal static policy.JEL K14, K42