投融资平台公司信用风险与地方政府信用失序——以法律为视角

法律冲突与制度扭曲环境下的投融资平台公司,从诞生之日起即具有结构性信用风险,而平台公司的信用风险与地方政府的信用具有相关性,其所具有的传导效应构成地方政府信用风险、宏观经济结构调整风险、土地政策调整风险、银行系统风险、财政风险这样一条具有多米诺骨牌效应的信用风险链并或将成为推手。加强地方政府的信用治理,从财政体制上、法律制度上规范地方政府信用秩序是防范平台公司信用风险的根本手段。     

公共卫生事件风险沟通中社会信任问题研究

在风险社会中,有针对性地进行风险沟通已成为应对风险不确定性的有效手段.随着我国经济的迅速发展,具有"脱域"特质的陌生人社会逐步形成,且移动智能终端进一步普及使得生活场景向虚拟化趋势发展,社会生活现状的改变对风险沟通提出了新要求.应从风险治理、立法完善、专家系统以及公众参与等方面着手完善公共卫生事件风险沟通中的社会信任机...     

A Computational Framework for Age‐at‐Death Estimation from the Skeleton: Surface and Outline Analysis of 3D Laser Scans of the Adult Pubic Symphysis

In forensic anthropology, age‐at‐death estimation typically requires the macroscopic assessment of the skeletal indicator and its association with a phase or score. High subjectivity and error are the recognized disadvantages of this approach, creating a need for alternative tools that enable the objective and mathematically robust assessment of true chronological age. We describe, here, three fully computational, quantitative shape analysis methods and a combinatory approach that make use of three‐dimensional laser scans of the pubic symphysis. We report a novel age‐related shape measure, focusing on the changes observed in the ventral margin curvature, and refine two former methods, whose measures capture the flatness of the symphyseal surface. We show how we can decrease age‐estimation error and improve prior results by combining these outline and surface measures in two multivariate regression models. The presented models produce objective age‐estimates that are comparable to current practices with root‐mean‐square‐errors between 13.7 and 16.5 years.     

Actions Speak Louder than Words: A Behavioral Analysis of 183 Individuals Convicted for Terrorist Offenses in the United States from 1995 to 2012

Involvement in terrorism has traditionally been discussed in relatively simplistic ways with little effort spent on developing a deeper understanding of what involvement actually entails, and how it differs from person to person. In this paper, we present the results of a three‐year project focused on 183 individuals associated with the global jihadist movement who were convicted in the United States, for terrorist offenses, between 1995 and 2012. These data were developed by a large‐scale, open‐source data collection activity that involved a coding dictionary of more than 120 variables. We identify and explore the diversity of behaviors that constitute involvement in terrorism. We also compare lone actors and those who acted as part of a group, finding that lone actors differed from group‐based actors in key demographic attributes and were more likely to be involved in attack execution behaviors. Implications for counterterrorism are then discussed.     

TESTING THE TRANSITIVITY OF REPORTED RISK PERCEPTIONS: EVIDENCE OF COHERENT ARBITRARINESS

An often implicit assumption of perceptual deterrence tests is that the elicited values pertaining to arrest risk reflect stable underlying beliefs. But researchers in other disciplines have found that reported expectations are highly susceptible to exogenous factors (e.g., anchors and question ordering), indicating that such values are somewhat arbitrary responses to probabilistic questions. At the same time, reported expectations are coherent within persons, such that respondents rank order them rationally. For deterrence, then, absolute values reported on arrest risks are likely not stable but individuals still rank order specific crimes in meaningful ways. We examine the interpretability of reported arrest risk for three possibilities: 1) Reported risks are stable probabilistic values; 2) reported risks are arbitrary and uninformative for deterrence research; or 3) reported risks display “coherent arbitrariness” with unstable values between individuals but stable rank ordering of crimes within individuals. Through the use of three random experiments of college students, our results indicate that elicited risk perceptions are arbitrary in that they are influenced by the presentation of anchors and question ordering. Nevertheless, the rank ordering of crimes within and across conditions is unaffected by the presentation of anchors, suggesting that reported risks are locally coherent within persons.     

环境行政许可的八个立法原则

在现代社会,许可证制度是防范环境风险最主要的法律制度。目前,学界对行政许可的一般立法原则(法律保留原则、便民效率原则、信赖保护原则、公开公平原则等)探讨甚多,而对环境行政许可具有自身特色的立法原则探讨较少。环境行政许可具有风险品性、科技背景、利益权衡、代际平衡、国际关联等五个特征,因此,环境行政许可的立法,除了须遵循行政许可的一般立法原则外,还须遵循预防、谨慎行事、合理开发利用、污染者负担、科技促进、公众参与、协同合作、国家环境资源主权与不损害国外环境等八个立法原则。这八个原则对具体制度的建构均有明确的要求,并在特定情况下使许可举证责任发生转移。     

Prediction of violent and sexual offences: A replication study of the VRAG in Switzerland

Abstract

The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) is a widely used actuarial risk assessment instrument and has been validated in different countries. However, there is no investigation supporting the predictive accuracy of the VRAG in the German language area. The VRAG scores of 79 violent and sexual offenders in Switzerland were assessed based on data from their psychiatric expert opinions. The VRAG scores were compared to subsequent recidivism as shown in the official criminal records. Consistent with past research in the English language area, the VRAG yielded a satisfying predictive accuracy (ROC area = .73), demonstrating its usefulness for risk assessment of violent delinquency in the Swiss cultural and German language area.     

青少年心理问题若干个案的思维方式归因分析

思维与心理有着极为密切的关系,探讨和解决青少年心理问题,不能把思维方式的影响撇在一边。对青少年心理问题的个案进行分析,均会发现思维方式侧身其中的情况。因此,不解决思维方式问题,心理问题也不可能得到彻底的解决。思维方式教育应该作为青少年心理健康教育的重要组成部分。     

Youth Development Outcomes of the Camp Experience: Evidence for Multidimensional Growth

Three thousand, three hundred and ninety-five families, whose child attended one of 80 different day or resident summer camps for at least one week, completed customized questionnaires that measured growth from precamp to postcamp in four domains: Positive Identity, Social Skills, Physical & Thinking Skills, and Positive Values & Spirituality. Parents, children, and camp staff reported significant positive change in these four domains; more than would be expected by maturation alone. Most gains were maintained or showed additional growth six months later. Few of the camp's structural elements correlated with growth, nor did striking gender, age, or ethnicity differences emerge. The study highlights the particular strengths of camp as an educational institution and social movement and suggests that different variations of summer camp can provide potent developmental experiences. Christopher A. Thurber is full-time faculty at Phillips Exeter Academy in Exeter, New Hampshire. He received his PhD in clinical psychology from the University of California, Los Angeles, in 1997. His major research interests include homesickness, youth camping, and developmental psychopathology. Margery M. Scanlin is the Executive Officer for Research at the American Camp Association in Martinsville, Indiana. She received her EdD from Temple University in Philadelphia, PA, in 1982. Her major research interests include youth development outcomes, program improvement in youth organizations, and organizational aspects of effective camps. Leslie Scheuler Whitaker is a Senior Associate with Philliber Research Associates in St. Louis, Missouri. She received her PhD in social science research from Washington University in St. Louis in 2000. Her primary research areas include youth development, arts education, and program evaluation. Karla A. Henderson is a professor in the Department of Parks, Recreation, and Tourism at North Carolina State University. She received her PhD in education from the University of Minnesota in 1979 and is currently a member of the American Camp Association Board of Directors. Her research interests include leisure behavior theory, camping and outdoor education, and gender and diversity issues.