Perception and Politics in Intelligence Assessment: U.S. Estimates of the Soviet and "Rogue-State" Nuclear Threats

United States estimates of Soviet nuclear goals and capabilities and the current "rogue-state" nuclear threat reflected prevailing beliefs about threat within the U.S. government and the relative influence of agencies charged with threat assessment. This article establishes that the patterns in formal Soviet threat assessment: (i) did not reflect a uniform response to "external threat," (ii) were inevitably tied to underlying assumptions about adversary intent, and (iii) were susceptible then to perceptual, organizational, and/or political influences within government. Thus, threat assessments reflected the optimism and pessimism—and political interests and ideologies—of those who participated in the estimating process. The article concludes by examining these lessons in light of the experiences and challenges of assessing threat from small states harboring nuclear ambitions.     

A candidate for relegation? Corruption,governance approaches and the (re)construction of post‐war states

The article discusses the place of anti‐corruption in the post‐war donor agendas. It uses examples from a set of country reports to demonstrate the divergence between the rhetoric and reality of donor‐led initiatives, and the delivery of reform through the governance approach of which addressing corruption has been a part. It suggests that dealing with corruption has often been diluted or downplayed within the wider approach. Within the debate to revise that approach, corruption may be relegated further down the agenda. While recognising the complexity of the post‐war reform process, and the demands from the multiple tasks and volume of funding being addressed by a range of domestic and external actors, the article suggests that failure to address corruption within any new approach in favour of what are considered more pressing reform issues may well cause problems for the future. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Westminster in small states: comparing the Caribbean and pacific experience

Small states, and those in the Caribbean and Pacific regions in particular, are among the most stubbornly and disproportionally democratic countries in the world. And yet, they are rarely studied comparatively, despite sharing seemingly obvious similarities – aside from being small island states with developing economies they also tend to share a British colonial heritage and Westminster-inspired political institutions. This omission is all the more puzzling if we consider that the group does not conform to the standard battery of explanations developed by democratization theorists. To pave the way for further research across these two regions, this article provides a synoptic comparison of the process of democratization in Caribbean and Pacific small states. We highlight important similarities and differences that stem from the interaction between formal institutions and informal practices. We conclude by reiterating the benefits for scholars of democratization by looking at these significant yet hitherto rarely compared cases.     

Status conflicts between Russia and the West: Perceptions and emotional biases

This article looks at the status conflicts between Russia and the West and asks: why do these conflicts exist despite attempts to avoid them? If status conflicts refer to merely a symbolic recognition, then they should arguably be easier to solve than conflicts stemming from competition for power and resources. Yet, status conflicts can be difficult to solve even when they were not conceived as zero-sum games. The article argues that status conflicts cannot be understood without the interplay of perceptions and emotions. First, what really matters is not objective status but perceptions thereof and there seems to be a gap how Russia and the West perceive status in general. Secondly, the perceptions of when status is gained or lost seem to be emotionally loaded. Russia is more willing to understand its relative status when military or economic issues are at stake, but if the dispute deals with international norms and questions of justice Russia is more likely to interpret Western action as violating its status and conversely, it is more likely to interpret its own action as enhancing its status when it is defending such values differently from the West.     

Value-oriented public management in vulnerable societies: assessing the impact of Public Value Management practices in three Caribbean countries

Innovative public management practices can greatly benefit citizens, but often fail due to a mismatch with the societal context. Public Value Management was developed in North America and Western Europe, emphasising public leadership, stakeholder involvement, and information sharing. This article examines whether these practices advocated in resilient societies which are large, egalitarian, and high trust also work in vulnerable societies which are small, hierarchical, and low trust. The article compares management practices at 16 public utilities in 3 Caribbean societies, concluding that Public Value Management can improve outcomes when applied comprehensively. Partial implementation, however, leads to worse outcomes instead.     

Social policy for inclusive development in Africa

The paper revisits the discourse on development in Africa, following in the footsteps of leading development thinkers and focusing on social policy. Some of the thinkers and scholars have specifically and directly discussed development discourse in Africa. Others have made insightful points regarding inclusive development in Africa even though not directly engaging with development discourse. The paper also acknowledges earlier thinking regarding development in Africa, including perspectives that deal with underdevelopment. The paper concerns itself with the critical role that social policy can play in ensuring inclusive development in Africa. The interface between economic and social policy is emphasised. Although Africa faces many intractable challenges, most of which are externally imposed, robust social policies will go a long way in bringing about effective social and economic development. In the main, though, Africa needs a comprehensive socio-economic development approach that can ensure lasting inclusive development. Social policies are critical for any development endeavour in African countries. Another main point that the paper makes is that economic transformation is not enough to fully advance wellbeing in Africa (and probably the world at large). By restructuring economies in Africa, not much would be achieved though some gains would be made.     

National identity in the contemporary Baltics: comparative quantitative analysis

This paper is about contemporary national identity attitudes in the three Baltic states as ethnic democracies. It presents the results of a quantitative comparative study using data from the International Social Survey Program, collected in 2013. The parameters of comparison include the perceived importance of various national identity criteria and the pride in a nation’s achievements in various spheres. The results show that Baltic national identity focuses not on ethnic homogeneity, but on commitment and loyalty, to reflect upon the current situation more than the historical past, and to have the potential for the integration of ethnic minority members.     

The European Union in international environmental negotiations: a legal perspective on the internal decision-making process

From an EU point of view, most international environmental agreements are mixed. This means that both the European Community (EC) and its member states are party to the agreement. As the participation of the EC in international negotiations and agreements is properly arranged by the Treaty establishing the European Community, but the EU member states’ participation is not legally organized on the EU level, the internal decision-making process regarding mixed agreements is rather complicated. Insights into this process are needed to understand the representation and the role of the European Union in international environmental negotiations. This article clarifies the legal framework of the EU decision-making process regarding such negotiations.

Liberals and nationalism: E. H. Carr,Walter Lippmann and the Baltic States from 1918 to 1944

The Baltic states were among the ‘new’ states that were created after the First World War; they were the only states to lose their sovereignty during the Second World War. Most historians explain the birth and demise of the Baltic states in terms of their relative strength vis-à-vis the great powers. This article places the short-lived independence of the Baltic states into the perspective of intellectual history by focusing on two Western thinkers: E. H. Carr and Walter Lippmann. The analysis assumes that ideas matter in international politics. It adds to our understanding of the forces that led to the creation and later to the extinction of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in the period of the two world wars.     

Debating Baltic memory regimes

This is a debate article about a volume by Michael Bernhard and Jan Kubik, who put forth a novel analytical framework for comparing memory regimes in post-communist Central and Eastern Europe. The article briefly outlines the model, debates the results of the Baltic chapter in the volume, offers a more rigorous comparative application of the original framework to these cases, and finally provides a methodological critique with regard to the comparative study of memory politics more broadly.