Regime Change and Conflict Recidivism within Rivalry: Interludes in Disputes

How does regime change affect the risk of militarized disputes? Within the democratic peace literature, there is disagreement over whether it is democratization, autocratization, political dissimilarity or political instability that is particularly perilous. I distinguish four perspectives from this literature and test their attendant hypotheses on a dataset of conflict episodes within enduring rivalry from 1816 to 2001 using survival analysis. I find that both democratization and autocratization reduce the hazard of dispute recurrence in enduring rivalries. After controlling for selection bias, the effect of democratization was robust whereas the effect of autocratization was not. Democratization also has the additional property of terminating rivalries; autocratization does not. Together, the results imply that democratization is better at promoting a transition from rivalry to peaceful relations than is the autocratization of a rivalry dyad.     

Silent energy

New Art from China: Part I: Silent Energy; Part II: China Avant‐Garde. An Exhibition at the Museum of Modern Art, Oxford, 27 June‐24 October 1993.     

Police Bribery: Is Corruption Fostering Dissatisfaction with the Political System?

The increasing salience of security concerns after democratization processes in the developing world has put scholars to explore the effects of police corruption as a key issue impeding the consolidation of the rule of law. Using data taken from surveys conducted in Mexico, Peru, and Bolivia, this article contributes to such literature by questioning whether cases of police corruption have an effect on the trust in the political system. The research finds that citizens can support the democratic order even if they have experienced bribery. The article unveils, however, that another type of police corruption—police protecting criminals—is a robust and statistically significant theory of variance in the confidence in the political system.     

当代韩国政党政治民主化的变迁特征——以卡特尔政党理论为分析视角

1995年,欧洲学者凯茨和麦尔首先提出卡特尔政党的概念,同时总结了卡特尔政党在国家与社会中的地位转变所衍生出的特质。本文从政党与国家之间的联络、政党竞争环境和政党与市民社会之间的关系等几方面探讨韩国政党政治的一般情况。作者认为,卡特尔政党虽倡导民主与自由竞争,但实则关注操控权力的运用,此种情况无助于韩国政党的民主化进程。因此相关的制度设计是防止卡特尔政党对民主政治产生负面影响的必要措施。     

从苏/俄政治转型看现代政党政治的发展趋势

俄/苏在特定的历史条件下建立了多党联合政权,又在特定的历史条件下走向了一党统制。但这条路终究没有走通。苏共随着前苏联的解体而走到其历史的尽头,俄共则随着俄罗斯多党制的确立而浴火重生———虽然处境艰难,却也不失为俄罗斯政坛的一支重要力量。苏/俄政党政治的演变说明,只有基于合法竞争的适应政治民主潮流的政党政治,才有生命力;政治权力的垄断不仅会侵犯作为权力所有者的人民的根本利益,而且对权力的垄断者也是绞索。     

1997年东亚金融危机后美国对印尼民主化进程的干预

1997年亚洲金融危机后,美国干预印尼走民主化道路。印尼民主化能否顺利发展,直接关系美国推动穆斯林世界的民主化和全球范围内的反恐战争,同时也将影响东亚地区的整体形势。美国认为,印尼是接近失败的国家,目前形势虽有好转,但一些导致失败的因素仍将长期存在。为此,美国要对印尼的民主化进行必要的干预,影响其国家建设,以防止印尼的失败。从金融危机后克林顿和布什政府干预印尼民主化进程的实际情况来看,美国为防止印尼失败发挥了一定的正面作用,但也造成印尼国内反美情绪上升等副作用。     

State and Democratization in Nigeria

The articles interrogates the relationship between democratization and people power in Nigeria. It argues that the broadening of the Nigerian public sphere has not led to reciprocal development of democratic principles and practice. As civilian rule reigns and economic growth is reported, Nigeria’s democratization is fraught with many challenges. Democratization remains questionable in Nigeria; it is rudimentary and distorted by irregularities. These have had implications for national development and human securities as the poverty level worsens and acclaimed economic growth and “democratic dividends” fail to enhance Nigerians’ quality of life. The trivialization of democratization raises critical questions about its state and relevance to Nigerians and the Nigerian state. Is Nigeria democratizing or de-democratizing? How does the democratization process bring the Nigerian people closer to state (power)? How has it helped their developmental quests? The article contends that Nigeria’s democratization process is indeed on trial. As Ake argues, Nigerian state democratization does not only trivialize the essence of democracy—it also continues to reverse the democratization process. Against this background, the article concludes that the democratization process in Nigeria requires elite political will and people’s consciousness to advance to the next stage for better democratic consolidated and economic development relevant to Nigerians.     

Political entrepreneurship and the Ko-P phenomenon in Taiwan’s democratization*

Taiwan’s economic modernization and political democratization after World War II have been praised as good examples for emerging countries. As of 2014, Taiwan has successfully gone through four direct presidential elections and two rounds of peaceful transfer of power. However, continuing sectarian quarrels between the ruling Kuomintang and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party cast doubt on the suitability of democracy for a Confucian society. This pessimism is challenged by the emergence of a new political star. A political novice, Ko Wen-je (aka Ko-P), won a landslide victory in the 2014 Taipei mayoral election, which is seen as a phenomenon. It has significant political implications and has so far inspired changes in the political landscape. The adoption of entrepreneurial strategies, such as identifying problems, leading by example, and team creation, are unprecedented in Taiwan’s political campaign. The Ko-P phenomenon demonstrates a self-correcting mechanism in Taiwan’s political system and bodes well for the future of new democracies, particularly for the Greater China Region.     

Does the world agree about standards of electoral integrity? Evidence for the diffusion of global norms

Drawing upon theories of the diffusion of global norms, this study addresses two issues: is there a shared consensus among experts about standards of electoral integrity? And do evaluations by elites reflect ‘Western/American’ values, or do they coincide with the judgments of ordinary people living in diverse cultures, suggesting the existence of internalized global norms?     

抗争的动力:新媒体与缅甸的民主化

自从2007年以来,缅甸社会政治发生了很大变化,其中新媒体起了很关键的作用。在2007年"藏红花"革命和2008年纳吉斯风灾中,缅甸人民利用互联网、移动电话等新媒体技术向世界传递了政府镇压和掩盖的真相。缅甸军人政府也明显感到了新媒体技术对其统治的压力,因此在2010年缅甸大选之前,严格控制国内的互联网。新媒体技术的出现虽然没有导致缅甸社会权力结构发生实质性的变化,但是新媒体技术打破了原来军政府对信息的封锁,逐渐促进了缅甸的民主化进程。