《美韩自由贸易协定》的新变化及其背后的动态博弈

《美韩自由贸易协定》达成后,其进展并不顺利。经过两次追加谈判,历时四年多,最终获得美韩两国国会的批准。本文以2011年2月10日美韩双方签署的新协定为切入点,首先论述了《美韩自由贸易协定》的新变化及其实质,进而从理论和实证两方面对这种新变化背后美国国内政治的动态博弈进行了阐述。通过分析,充分再现了美国国内政治博弈对《美韩自由贸易协定》的内容和走向施加影响的过程,并由此看出,美国政治体制的掣肘已经成为美国迫使对方做出妥协或更大让步以实现自身利益最大化的筹码。     

PARTICIPATION AND FREQUENCY DURING CRIMINAL CAREERS ACROSS THE LIFE SPAN*

Recent advances and debates surrounding general and developmental as well as static and dynamic theories of crime can be traced to the 1986 National Academy of Science's Report on criminal careers and the discussion it generated. A key point of contention has been regarding the interpretation of the age–crime curve. According to Gottfredson and Hirschi (1986), the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects decreasing individual offending frequency (λ) after the peak. Blumstein et al. (1986) claimed that the decline in the aggregate age–crime curve also could be attributable to the termination of criminal careers, and the average value of l could stay constant (or increase with age) for those offenders who remain active after that peak. Using data from the Criminal Career and Life Course Study—including information on criminal convictions across 60 years of almost 5,000 persons convicted in the Netherlands—and applying a two-part growth model that explicitly distinguishes between participation and frequency, the study outlined in this article assessed the participation–frequency debate. Results suggest that the decline in the age–crime curve in early adulthood reflects both decreasing individual offending participation and frequency after the peak, that the probabilities of participation and frequency are significantly related at the individual level, and that sex and marriage influence both participation and frequency.     

Market structures,political surroundings,and merger remedies: an empirical investigation of the EC’s decisions

This paper aims to build and empirically evaluate a discrete choice model of merger remedies as a basis for policy analysis. The database consists of 229 merger cases accepted in Phase I or Phase II of the European merger process between 1990 and 2005. We focus on the following question: Which merging firms’ characteristics lead the European Commission to decide whether to require conditional acceptance? Although a lot of empirical studies have been carried out these last years, ours is distinguished by at least two original features. First, we explore determinant factors of the Commission’s decisions with a neural network model differentiating cases accepted with or without remedies (either structural or behavioral). Secondly, we implement three multinomial logit models. We find that variables related to high market power lead more frequently to a remedy outcome, no matter the phase. Innovative industries such as energy, transportation and communications positively affect the probability of a behavioral remedy. Lastly, former Competition Commissioner Mario Monti’s policy appears to be pro-remedy, i.e. seeking concessions from merging parties.     

Impunity or Punishment? An Analysis of Criminal Investigation into Kidnapping,Terrorism and Embezzlement in Colombia

This paper aims to identify the variables that contribute to explain the current ability of the Colombian criminal system to resolve cases of kidnapping, terrorism and embezzlement. In order to achieve this goal a sample of cold cases and sentenced files were analysed in three main cities of the country. The success of a criminal investigation was divided into three stages: a) the identification of at least one suspect per case; b) the accusation and putting on trial of the suspect; and c) his/her conviction. Econometric techniques were used to identify the criminal investigation variables associated to each of the three successes. Variables such as the evidence and investigative practices used by the judicial police, the attorneys and the courts were taken into account. The results of this study have important implications for criminal investigation and crime policy in Colombia and in the region.     

甲基苯丙胺染毒动物模型的建立与评价

苯丙胺类中枢兴奋剂是21世纪最广泛滥用的毒品.甲基苯丙胺(methamphetamine,MA)的中毒机理、精神依赖性、耐药性以及治疗药物的研发是当前研究的热点.MA中毒动物模型的建立是研究MA相关问题的基础.MA动物模型建立的规范化和标准化对以后MA的进一步研究奠定了实验基础.本文结合国内外关于MA中毒动物的文献资料,通过对MA急性、亚急性以及慢性中毒动物模型研究的论述.对造模原理、造模方法 和评价标准进行了探讨,并指出建立以动物为主体的MA中毒模型来进行相关实验研究的必要性以及重要性.     

Temporal Linkages in Violent and Nonviolent Criminal Activity

Research on the temporal distribution of criminal behavior has highlighted two distinct mechanisms—population heterogeneity and state dependence. Most of this work indicates that long-term patterns of criminal offending reflect a mixture of stable individual differences and the causal effect of life events and experiences. Yet several ambiguities remain. Among the most important of these problems is whether both population heterogeneity and state dependence processes operate for different types of offending. We use longitudinal official record and self-report data for violent and non-violent offending activity from the Rochester Youth Development Study to address these ambiguities.     

Registrants,Voters, and Turnout Variability Across Neighborhoods

Although political participation has received wide-ranging scholarly attention, little is known for certain about the effects of social and political context on turnout. A scattered set of analyses—well-known by both political scientists and campaign consultants—suggests that ones neighborhood has a relatively minor impact on the decision to vote. These analyses, however, typically rely upon data from a single location. Drawing on official lists of registered voters from sixteen major counties across seven states (including Florida) from the 2000 presidential election, we use geographic/mapping information and hierarchical models to obtain a more accurate picture of how neighborhood characteristics affect participation, especially among partisans. Our research shows that neighborhoods influence voting by interacting with partisan affiliation to dampen turnout among voters we might otherwise expect to participate. Most notably, we find Republican partisans in enemy territory tend to vote less than expected, even after accounting for socioeconomic status. Our findings have implications for campaign strategy, and lead us to suggest that campaign targeting efforts could be improved by an integration of aggregate- and individual-level information about voters.     

企业工会：能动的行动者——以北京中外合资企业B有限公司工会实践为例

B有限公司的工会具有代表性,是市场条件下新型劳资关系发展的雏型。工会的组织结构是党政工的高度重合,正是凭借党组织在企业中的影响力工会能够较为有利地实现其权利。工会目标从传统国有企业的生产与维权的双重目标,向着以维权为主的目标发展,建立了一套准市场化的工会目标,即以福利目标为主、民主目标为辅的功能体系。这样,以政府、资方和工会三方谈判为主的劳资关系就被制度化了,工会成为“能动的行动者”,即作为工人利益的代言人,它能主动的发挥作用。     

Is Consensual Politicizing Being Punished in Switzerland?

Over the last decade, Switzerland has been characterized by both a radicalization of its political system and the relative success of the SP and SVP parties, which tend to adopt a strategy of permanent campaigning. Because of this, it is often argued that politicians are held accountable for their behaviour and that their electoral successes depend on their voting behaviour in parliament. We thus explore whether the voting behaviour of representatives, or citizens' evaluations of parties' ideological positions had an impact on their electoral success in the 1995, 1999, and 2003 national elections. More precisely, we assess how far the proximity and directional models explain the electoral success of incumbents and parties using roll call data for the National Council as well as the Selects surveys at the individual level. The results at both levels suggest that voters' choice is largely consistent with what is predicted by the spatial models of electoral behaviour. Swiss voters form their party preference on both proximity and direction, which supports a mixed model of electoral behaviour.