Modeling spending preferences & public policy

Understanding preferences over government spending is important for understanding electoral behavior and many other aspects of the political world. Using data on relative preferences for more or less spending across different issue areas, we estimate the general spending preferences of individuals and congressional candidates along a left-right spending dimension. Our modeling approach also allows us to estimate the location of policies on this same dimension, permitting direct comparison of people's spending preferences with where they perceive policy to be. We find that public shows very low levels of polarization on spending preferences, even across characteristics like partisanship, ideology, or income level. The distribution of candidates' spending preferences shows much more sorting by party, but candidates are significantly less polarized than is contemporary voting in Congress.     

微格教学法与现场实地勘验教学

本文从我院模拟现场实验室微格教学系统的配置、微格教学法的模式、教学过程的组织和实施以及其应用效果等几方面,阐述了微格教学法在现场实地勘验教学中的应用,以引起各方面对该教学法的重视。     

Geomatic techniques in forensic science: A review

The purpose of this review paper is to highlight various geomatic techniques that crime scene reconstructionists or forensic practitioners can use to document different kinds of scenes, highlighting the advantages, disadvantages, and when best to use each technology. This paper explores geomatic techniques such as a total station, photogrammetry, laser scanners and structured light scanners and how they can be used to reconstruct crime scenes. The goal of this paper is not to discredit manual methods, as they are long standing and reliable, but instead to shed light on alternative methods that may produce equally or more accurate results with a more visually appealing final product. It is important for law enforcement and forensic professionals to understand the advantages and disadvantages of each technique, knowing when certain techniques should be used (and when they should not), and being able to revert to traditional methods if required.     

Party effects on total and disaggregated welfare spending: A mixed-effects approach

Welfare is the largest expenditure category in all advanced democracies. Consequently, much literature has studied partisan effects on total and policy-specific welfare expenditure. Yet, these results cannot be trusted: the methodological standard is to apply time-series cross-section regressions to annual observation data. But governments hardly change annually. Thus, the number of observations is artificially inflated, leading to incorrect estimates. While this problem has recently been acknowledged, it has not been convincingly resolved. This article proposes mixed-effects models (also known as ‘multilevel models’ or ‘hierarchical models’) as a solution, which allows decomposing variance into different levels and permits complex cross-classification data structures. It is argued that mixed-effects models combine the strengths of existing methodological approaches while alleviating their weaknesses. Empirically, partisan effects on total and on disaggregated expenditure in 23 OECD countries in the period 1960–2012 are studied using several measures of party preferences and revealing several substantially relevant findings.     

几种"社会主义"模式的比较和科学社会主义在中国的实行

介绍西方在一百多年来探索优于资本主义制度的几种社会主义模式的情况,并阐述了他们寻找到的科学社会主义的模式,这种模式被中国的知识分子接受并广为传播,而最终成为中国共产党人的选择.     

程序正义语境下的死刑复核审理模式探究

作为我国刑事诉讼中的特殊程序,死刑复核程序是保证死刑准确适用的一道警戒线。传统的书面审理方式有许多弊端。基于程序正义的要求,死刑复核程序需要摒弃这种审理方式而转向开庭审理。为此,就需要对机构设置、当事方参与和程序运作等问题作出统一规划和合理构建,以合乎程序正当性之要求。     

论经济法调制主体及其工作人员的责任追究模式与分担方式

对经济法调制主体及其工作人员进行责任追究时,应以其违反了法定的调制程序而不是行为造成了实体损害为前提。调制主体本身不应当对其工作人员实施的普通违法调制行为承担责任,但基于实际需要,应代位承担赔偿责任,这种赔偿责任应纳入传统的国家赔偿责任。     

The Limits to Evidence‐Based Policy: Evidence,Emotion and Criminal Justice1

While ‘evidence‐based’ or ‘rationalist’ approaches to criminal policy may appeal to technocrats, bureaucrats and a number of academics, they often fail to compete successfully with the affective approaches to law and order policies which resonate with the public and which appear to meet deep‐seated psychological needs. They also often fail to recognise that ‘policy’ and ‘politics’ are related concepts and that debates about criminal justice are played out in broader arenas than the academy, the bureau or the agency. To be successful, penal reform must take account of the emotions people feel in the face of wrongdoing. Further, successful reform must take into account changes in public ‘mood’ or emotions over time and be sensitive to different political and social cultures. This article argues that criminal justice policies are more likely to be adopted if, in addition to the gathering and presentation of evidence, they recognise and deal with the roles of emotions, symbols, faith, belief and religion in the criminal justice system. It also recognises that evidence alone is unlikely to be the major determinant of policy outcomes and that the creation and successful implementation of policy also requires extensive engagement and evidence‐based dialogue with interested and affected parties. This necessitates a different kind of modelling for evidence‐based policy processes.     

The Dynamic Interdependence of Developmental Domains Across Emerging Adulthood

Emerging adulthood is a period in which profound role changes take place across a number of life domains including finance, romance, and residence. On the basis of dynamic systems theory, change in one domain should be related to change in another domain, because the concept of development according to this approach is a relational one. To evaluate this hypothesis dynamic systems analysis was applied to data from narrative interviews of 200 respondents covering the years between 17 and 27 to examine how change in one domain affects change in another domain. In each dyad, the fit of the model significantly deteriorated when the coupling between domains was removed providing support for the assumption of interdependency. On average, assuming greater responsibility in one domain was associated with assuming greater responsibility in the other domain. However, imbalances were also observed in which role assumption in one domain far exceeded role assumption in another domain. These imbalances can have detrimental effects and indicate the utility of a balanced approach to development. The findings underscore the importance of studying the relational unit between domains, which is critical to understanding development over time within domains. Post-Doctoral Research fellow in Geriatric Neuro-Psychiatry at Columbia University, College of Physicians and Surgeons and the New York State Psychiatric Institute. He received his PhD in Clinical Psychology at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and his major research interests include statistical methods for evaluating psychiatric nosology, late-life depression, and the stability and change of personality and personality disorders across the lifespan. Research Scientist at the University of Virginia. He received his PhD in Quantitative Psychology at the University of Virginia. His primary interests are in longitudinal data and applying dynamical concepts to structural equation modeling and multilevel methodology. Professor of Psychology at the University of Southern California. He received his PhD in Psychology at Hofstra University. He is principal investigator of the NIA funded National Growth and Change Study and has primary interests in the dynamics of cognitive ability over life span with special emphasis on longitudinal research designs, methodology, and statistical modeling. Research Scientist at New York State Psychiatric Institute and Professor of Public Health (Epidemiology) in Psychiatry at Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons and Columbia University School of Public Health. She received her PhD in social psychology at New York University. Major interests include quantitative methodology and statistics, developmental psychopathology, and lifespan development. Assistant Professor of Psychiatry at Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons. He received his M.D. and Ph.D. in Biostatistics in China. His research interests include epidemiological studies, quality of life, and multivariate statistical methods.     

企业政治行为对管制动态均衡的隐蔽性影响

随着现代管制理论和管制实践的不断发展,研究管制均衡的动态性变化和企业影响管制均衡的隐蔽性行为,对于提高政府管制政策的合理性有着十分重要的意义.因为这些隐蔽性行为处在合法性的边缘或是范围以内,在实践中也越来越多地被企业所运用.从管制过程中的三个利益相关者--消费者、企业和政府之间的现实关系、各自追求不同的目标和相互作用入手,运用Stigle-Peltzman的管制均衡模型研究了政府管制机制从初始设计到现实执行结果之间的演变轨迹,并在此基础上通过对该模型进一步的推理分析和案例研究得出结论,企业运用政治行为对管制动态均衡进行隐蔽性影响,使其向有利于自身的方向发生动态的偏离,从而获取超额利润的机制和作用方式.主要有:利用管制政策的相对静态性,通过隐蔽信息产生管制错位;削弱消费者的影响力,改变政府边际效用替代率.进一步阐述了管制错位和政府失灵的经济学机理,对现有的管制理论和企业政治行为理论进行了拓展,这对提高经济转型时期的我国政府管制政策的合理性具有积极的意义.