Trends in the proportion of married women of reproductive age in Spain, 1887–1991

Using the Princeton nuptiality index I_m, we analyzed historical developments in the proportion of married women of reproductive age in Spain. We show the internal diversity in nuptiality patterns and offer an explanatory statistical model based on panel data analysis to identify the main variables influencing these changes over more than a century (1887–1991). We found that Spain has been the developed country with the greatest contrasts in its provincial nuptiality patterns (measured by I_m), although this diversity has lessened over the course of time. We also found that some socioeconomic variables (the gross domestic product per capita and the percentage of population living in cities) do not have a linear relationship with female nuptiality but rather have a U shape or an inverted U shape. This may partly account for some of the controversy that has raged on this topic over the past few decades on an international level.     

关于“一国两制”台湾模式的新构想

在现行“一国两制”构想用来解决台湾问题遇到阻力的情况下,本文深挖国家结构形式的理论资源,提出用“一国两制”来解决台湾问题的新构想。新构想在“一个中国”的前提下,借鉴联邦主义的某些做法,以期建构一个两岸同胞均能接受的国家统一模式。该构想扩大了“一国两制”的包容量,增强了“一国两制”的适用性,具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

Chasing ghosts: An investigation of the ghosting phenomenon in footprints

Ghosting is a phenomenon that has been identified in dynamic (walking) footprints. There is sparse research on the occurrence of ghosting; however, due to the forensic value of footprints and their use in other scientific fields, the phenomenon of ghosting warrants further study. Ghosting can be used to determine if a footprint is static (standing) or dynamic, which can help forensic investigators create a sequence of events at a crime scene. Furthermore, this can help in footprint comparisons from this determination, as “like versus like” comparisons of dynamic or static footprints can be made. The purpose of this research was to determine the prevalence and locations of the ghosting phenomena in dynamic footprints.136 dynamic footprints from 68 volunteers were collected using an inkless collection system. Each footprint was visually inspected for ghosting as well as examined using software.Ghosting was present on at least one location in all footprints. The highest prevalence occurred at the tip of the great toe, followed by the second digit and the heel. To a lesser extent, ghosting appeared at the tips of the other three digits. Ghosting often occurred at two or more areas in a given footprint.     

美国金融危机对东亚新兴经济体的贸易传染渠道分析

美国金融危机到底以何种方式在全球传播,以至于演变成全球经济海啸,一直是近几年学术界所关注的问题之一。本文以美国金融危机对外传播的贸易传染渠道为切人点,分析了美国金融危机通过贸易伙伴型传染和贸易竞争对手型传染这两个贸易传染子渠道对东亚新兴经济体的溢出程度。对面板数据进行的GLS实证结果显示,美国金融危机通过贸易传染渠道的溢出,与大部分东亚新兴经济体经济波动之间存在10％以上显著性水平的相关性,因而贸易传染渠道是美国金融危机对东亚溢出的一个重要机制。     

痕检技术实验教学如何体现公安特色

公安院校应正确理解公安教育痕检技术实验课的性质,针对目前各公安高校课程实置和实施的现状,结合公安实践中的需要,改革公安痕检技术实验课的教学模式,分类设置,实施多种教学方法,提高教学效果。     

自愿、强制与控制引导--戒毒模式研究

控制引导模式是在现有的自愿模式与强制模式的基础上采用控制与引导这两种手段,将社区与强制戒毒区两方面的力量结合起来,相互配合,互助互动,创造一种协商参与的戒毒机制.应该在吸毒者从社区进入强制戒毒区、从强制戒毒区回归社区以及在社区实行自愿戒毒的过程中,一方面完善社区预警体系,加强社区控制功能,另一方面加强宣传引导,创造和谐的社区氛围,实现控制与引导兼顾,标本兼治的效果.     

论司法权运行改革下的合议庭负责制的构建

司法体制改革大背景下,安徽地区法院更多关注与研究的应该是司法权运行改革下的合议庭负责制如何更好地构建。笔者对当前合肥市法院审判权合议庭制度的运行现状进行了调研,发现当前合肥地区案多人少的矛盾非常突出,法院审判资源配置不足,相对固定的合议庭审判团队组建困难;合议庭审判职权与审判管理权界定不明确;合议庭内部流程制度不健全职能弱化等突出问题。笔者进而结合实地对全国部分试点审判权运行改革法院的考察情况,提出了安徽地区法院司法权运行改革下的合议庭负责制的构建一些想法:要优化审判资源的配置,配齐组建新型的合议庭审判团队;要合理界定审判权与审判管理权,充分发挥合议庭的审判职能;要理清合议庭提交审委会讨论案件范围与形式,真正实现"让审判者裁判,让裁判者负责";要明确合议庭负责制内部工作流程,确保合议庭内部运转正常;要健全对合议庭的考核监督激励机制,调动合议庭的工作积极性,加强合议庭的工作责任心。     

Age,period and cohort analysis in a comparative context: Political generations and political participation repertoires in Western Europe

This paper presents a method for studying age-period-cohort effects in a comparative context where repeated cross-sectional data are available covering a suitably long period of time. The method consists in the application of multi-level models with country as the higher level of analysis and random coefficients to model variables which vary at the country-level. Additionally, the application of generalized additive models (GAMs) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) provides robust empirical tests of cohort categorizations applied in this and previous studies to estimate otherwise collinear effects. To illustrate the method, I derive and test the theory that generations will be differentiated in their patterns of participation based on the ascendancy of certain repertoires in the era of their political socialization.     

中国政府执行行为动力机制构成的实证分析——以湖北省为例

政府执行行为动力机制是政府执行行为维持、运作与演变的内在力量源泉。当今西方公共管理主流理论有关政府行为动力机制的核心理论前提是所谓自利经济人假设,政府工作人员一切公务行为的唯一动机就是追求个人利益的最大化;公共利益不构成政府执行行为的动机前提。本文实证分析表明,当前中国各级政府执行行为已经形成了以公共性价值取向价值因子为导向与核心,以公共性利益因素、机关外部动力因素、制度因素等三类政府执行行为影响因素为主要内外影响因子,密切相关、内在稳定的一个主流动力机制功能体系。不过,这一体系并没有完全排斥个体性利益与价值追求。中国政府执行行为动力机制的制度化、规范化水平有待进一步提升。     

公司治理结构模式比较及启示

文章评析当代市场经济国家在公司治理中出现的几种典型的公司治理结构模式,比较它们之间异同,进而分析我国国有企业、民营企业治理结构的现实状况,提出了我国公司治理结构的建立模式和具体的政策建议。