When marketing models clash with democracy

The application of marketing models in political and public sector contexts is examined. The assumptions in marketing of positive outcomes of (i) rapid responses to consumer concerns, (ii) the extension of choice and customisation in product development, and (iii) the application of market research techniques are considered in turn. This analysis suggests that in the political context, responding rapidly to public opinion is not necessarily a sound reaction; extending choice and customisation of products may not best serve public welfare, and applying market research techniques may not provide for the best system for policy decisions. The features of liberal representative democracy, particularly the role of deliberation, informed assent and accountability, have been neglected. Speed of response has been emphasised to the cost of democratic filters and checks on public opinion; enhanced choice, enabled by mass customisation, presents problems of social fragmentation; and the application of market research is no substitute for political discourse and engagement. Copyright © 2003 Henry Stewart Publications     

Constructing an index of officially recorded crime: The use of confirmatory factor analysis

Researchers using officially reported crime statistics must frequently combine rates of individual crimes into a single composite. The most popular composite is the FBI Crime Index, which is the sum of the seven Part I crimes; alternatives include forming separate indices for personal and property crimes and weighting the crime categories by their seriousness before summing them. In this paper we construct crime composites through the use of confirmatory factor analysis methods. The results suggest that the measurement assumptions of conventional crime indices are problematic and demonstrate how more satisfactory alternatives can be developed with confirmatory factor analysis techniques.     

Lifestyle changes and risks of criminal victimization

Routine activity/lifestyle theories have been used to explain temporal changes in crime rates, the social ecology of crime, and individuals' risks of criminal victimization. Using a panel of 33,773 individuals and 19,005 households at two points in time, the current study extends previous research by examining whether changes in lifestyles are associated with changes in individuals' risks of personal and property victimization. Changes in lifestyles which signal greater target visibility or exposure to motivated offenders (greater daytime and nighttime activity outside the home) and reduced guardianship (decreases in the number of household members) are generally associated with increased risks of both types of victimization. Persons who maintained high levels of nighttime activity outside the household were also more likely to remain victims at both time periods. However, active lifestyle changes (increased precautionary actions) did not have their expected impact on reducing victimization risks, and several other changes over time also were inconsistent with expectations. The paper concludes with a discussion of the role of passive and active lifestyle changes on victimization risks and the implications of our findings for developing sociological theories of criminal victimization.An early draft of this paper was presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Society of Criminology, November 11–14, 1987. The data for this study were originally collected by the Bureau of Census for the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration and were made available by the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Neither the collectors of the data nor the Consortium bears any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here.     

Structural Models of Injustice and Illegalism in Israel

The question of whether a citizen is obliged to obey the law has occupied scholarly thinking since the days of Socrates. Thus, rarely has the question been examined empirically. Based on a survey of 1866 adults, citizens of the state of Israel, this study attempts to construct causal models linking socioeconomic status to subjective measures of injustice, and further to indicators of illegalism and disobedience among Jews and Arabs. LISREL analysis has been found a useful tool to construct the empirical models that measure how members of the two ethnic communities relate to the boundaries of the prima facie obligation to obey the law. Findings show that those who have no trust in one part of the legal system, will also have no trust in the rest of the system which, in turn, serves to legitimize taking the law into one's own hand.     

How Exclusive is Assembly Democracy? Citizens' Assembly and Ballot Participation Compared

This paper analyses the difference between two specific forms of citizens’ involvements, namely whether a vote is cast by ballot or in a citizens’ assembly in which people gather in town halls to decide legislative questions in a deliberative manner. We show both theoretically and empirically how citizens’ assemblies and decisions at the ballot box substantially differ not only in terms of their underlying model of democracy, but also in their structural conditions and, thus, with respect to the social inequality of participation. We test our hypotheses in a Bayesian multilevel framework using real participation data collected from 15 political decisions made in a Swiss commune. Our results show that citizens’ assemblies are not only characterised by lower participation rates, but also by a particular composition of the electorate. While citizens’ assemblies are more equal regarding income groups, ballots favour a more equitable participation in terms of gender and age.     

An Improved Equation for TBS and ADD: Establishing a Reliable Postmortem Interval Framework for Casework and Experimental Studies

Megyesi et al.'s (J Forensic Sci, 2005, 50, 618) paper was important to forensic anthropology as it introduced a quantitative framework for estimating time since death in human cadavers, based upon physical appearance by way of scoring on a novel scale. However, errors concerning rounding, temperature scale, and incorrect use of a statistical regression model render their predictive formula unusable. Based upon only their more reliable data, a more appropriate regression model to predict accumulated degree days (ADD) from total body score (TBS) is presented. The new model is also a superior fit (r² = 0.91) and produces markedly narrower confidence intervals than the original, which also allowed impossible, negative ADD values. Explanations of the shortcomings in the original analysis and calculations are presented, which it is hoped will help forensic scientists avoid making similar mistakes.     

大鼠血液中HbCO随吸入CO浓度和时间的变化

目的研究不同一氧化碳(carbon monoxide,CO)浓度下中毒大鼠的行为学特征、存活时间、碳氧血红蛋白(carboxyhemoglobin,HbCO)饱和度变化规律,为法医学实践中CO中毒死亡案件提供实验依据。方法将160只SD大鼠随机分为4组。自制染毒装置,使大鼠分别在CO浓度为1 250、3 750、6 250 mg/m~3及持续通入CO状态下染毒致死亡。观察不同CO浓度中毒大鼠的行为学特征,记录存活时间,采用分光光度法检测心血HbCO饱和度,并提取脑、心脏、肺、肝等器官进行组织病理学观察。结果 CO中毒大鼠的行为学特征表现为肢体瘫软、反应迟钝。随着CO浓度的升高,大鼠存活时间逐渐缩短,心血HbCO饱和度逐渐升高。在CO浓度为1 250 mg/m~3条件下,发现3例心血HbCO饱和度明显低于致死饱和度,其余各组未发现心血HbCO饱和度低于致死饱和度的情况。结论建立的不同浓度下CO中毒死亡动物模型,操作简单,重复性好,为进一步研究CO中毒及其他吸入性有毒气体的法医学研究奠定了基础。     

Problems in the measurement of dynamic risk factors in sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

Having valid and reliable tools to measure ‘dynamic’ risk factors and minimising assessor bias is said to be critical in helping to make decisions regarding how individuals convicted of committing crime should be managed and treated, and how resources within the Justice System should be prioritised. This article outlines the problems and issues associated with the measurement of such putative dynamic risk factors (see Ward, 2015 Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime and Law, 22(01-02), 2–16. [Google Scholar] [Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime and Law.], 22(1–2), 2–16], this volume for a critique of current conceptions of these), and suggests ways of ensuring that measurement is conducted in the most appropriate way for the population being dealt with. Specifically, we would note that the evidence suggests that psychometric analysis, and structured professional judgment can be used to measure dynamic psychological problems using some tools within some samples. However, their use can be hindered by a number of conceptual factors including how the tests are designed and used, their reliability and validity, the context in which they are used, and the samples used. Finally, we would note that interviews are also an important part in the process of dynamic assessment.     

When a Child Rejects a Parent: Working With the Intractable Resist/Refuse Dynamic

A subgroup of intractable families, in which a child refuses postseparation contact with a parent, perplexes and frustrates professionals who work with them. This article discusses the underlying forces that drive the family's intractability, as well as guidelines for working with the family. The guidelines include specific court orders developed from the very beginning of the case that elaborate the court's stance about goals and expectations for the family, along with specialized individual and family therapies that are undertaken within a framework of planned collaboration with the court. The collaborative team of legal and mental health professionals works in an innovative and active way to structure, support, and monitor the family's progress in resolving the resist/refuse dynamic.