Return on Investment in Innovation: Implications for Institutions and National Agencies*

Commercial success in universities in the USA and Canada has resulted in many other countries taking steps to emulate this performance and major technology transfer and commercialisation support programmes have been launched in UK, Europe, Australia, Japan and many other countries—including South Africa. Unrealistic expectations have, however, been generated by the spectacular successes of a relatively few institutions and it is not always realised that the success from commercialisation is proportional to the magnitude of the investment in research. Without a well funded, high quality research system, it is not possible for technology transfer to make any significant contribution to economic development. The possible economic returns to higher education institutions from commercialisation of research can be estimated using international benchmarks. This forecast uses a combination of an institutional return on investment model and a simple economic projection. The model is generic and can be adapted for use in any institution. As more data becomes available from local (and international) sources, the model will be refined to give better estimates. The model is dynamic and shows, quantitatively, why it can take up to 10 years for an institution, and 20 years nationally, to attain a positive rate of return from an investment in research and technology transfer. The model enables the long-term impact of policy decisions, in an institution and nationally, to be examined and alternative scenarios explored. The performance of individual institutions is, however, highly variable and unpredictable. This is even for those institutions that are comparable in size and maturity. A large portfolio of patents and licences is required to give a reasonable probability of positive returns. This may be possible at a national level, but is problematic in smaller institutions—and smaller countries. Because the benefits of the innovation system are captured largely at national level, with institutions having a high uncertainty, public sector support to reduce the institutional risk is necessary to assist institutions to make the necessary investments. Technology transfer is of course only one element of the overall research and innovation value chain. All elements must be functioning effectively to derive the economic and social benefits from research. In addition to a strong research system, adequate incentives must exist to encourage academics to participate, particularly with regard to the crucial initial step of invention disclosure. After disclosure, sufficient institutional capacity must be in place to take an idea, evaluate it, protect the intellectual property appropriately and then seek a path to commercialisation through either licensing or start-up company formation. *Based on the paper “Return on Investment in Innovation: Implications for Institutions and National Agencies” presented at The First Globelics Conference on Innovation Systems and Development Strategies for the Third Millennium, Rio de Janeiro, November 2003.     

试论知识员工管理的困境与动态协同模式的应用

随着知识经济时代的来临,知识作为最基本的资本要素改变了组织中的人力资源配置结构——从事知识工作的知识员工正逐渐成为组织运营过程的主要参与者和劳动价值的基本创造者。传统人力资源管理模式在管理知识员工时面临着一些困境。动态协同管理模式为组织提供了一种管理知识员工的方法。     

试论市场经济条件下公安队伍以德治警的内涵与动力

警察是社会秩序的维护者和社会公德的化身,因此,以德治警具有十分重要的意义。以德治警的指标体系包括完善的警察道德规范、高尚的警察职业文化和严密的警察职业纪律三方面的内容。以德治警的动力来自于全体民警的共同参与、先进典型的示范和社会舆论的评价等。     

AN EXAMINATION OF OFFENSE SPECIALIZATION USING MARGINAL LOGIT MODELS*

Research on offense specialization has concluded that there is a great deal of versatility in offending. Although the preponderance of evidence supports versatility, some research points to a small but significant tendency to specialize. Beyond this observation there is little consensus over the degree of offense specialization, the similarities and differences between people who commit violent acts and those who engage in other criminal behavior, or the extent to which general causal processes are sufficient to explain variation in diverse forms of crime and delinquency. At the heart of the confusion is the fact that criminal behaviors across a wide spectrum are positively correlated with one another. In our opinion, the conclusion that general offending trumps offense specialization is the result of research designs that predetermined such a conclusion. We propose an alternative method, marginal logit modeling, that supports many desirable features suited to the investigation of offense specialization. We analyze nine self‐reported delinquent behaviors (with a tenth category representing “No Offense”) from the Add Health study. We show that violent offenders are more likely to engage in additional violent offenses, nonviolent offenders are more likely to engage in additional nonviolent offenses. For some offense types, we find no evidence of a tendency to commit both violent and nonviolent offending. For others, the offense generalization effect is weak compared to the offense specialization effect.     

秩序与立法：台湾当局大陆经贸立法分析

秩序是社会获得存在和发展的必然要求,也是法律的重要价值目标之一。人类法治 化历程存在着两种发展模式,其一为建构理性主义路径,另一为经验理性主义路径,两者都殊途 同归地实现了法治化道路。为此,台湾当局在对大陆经贸立法活动中选择建构理性模式并无可厚 非,问题在于,台湾当局的大陆经贸立法进程,在相当程度上忽视了秩序的“自发性”,从而使 得经由立法活动输出的相关法令无法达成法律应有的功能。因此,台湾的大陆经贸立法范式有待 进一步转换,即在立法政策上,实现从以“政治为导向”向以“经济为导向”的转换;在立法内 容上,实现“差别待遇”向“公平待遇”的转换。     

COPS GRANTS AND CRIME REVISITED*

Using 6 years of panel data, Zhao, Scheider, and Thurman (2002) found that funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS), reduced property and violent crime in large U.S. cities. We merged their COPS data with 11 years of panel data from a sample of 189 large cities, such that the period before the COPS program was covered. We also controlled for pre‐existing effects on crime of police spending. Finally, we performed various robustness checks and explored state‐specific effects of COPS spending. Our findings suggest that COPS spending had little to no effect on crime.     

DEVELOPMENTAL TRAJECTORY GROUPS: FACT OR A USEFUL STATISTICAL FICTION?*

A rapidly growing literature in criminology and psychology uses a group‐based methodology to identify and analyze developmental trajectories. Some confusion has arisen about the interpretation of this novel statistical model and with it some degree of cautionary commentary. We begin with a discussion of the role of trajectory groups as a statistical device for approximating population differences in developmental trajectories. We then discuss three misconceptions about group‐based trajectory modeling that stem from misunderstandings about the approximating role of trajectory groups: (1) individuals actually belong to a trajectory group, (2) the number of trajectory groups is immutable, and (3) the trajectories of group members follow the group‐level trajectory in lock step. We also point out that groupbased statistical modeling is not bound at the hip to the testing of taxonomic theories, and can just as well be used to test nontaxonomic theories.     

Texas Criminal Defense Attorneys’ Perceptions of Crime Victim Involvement in Criminal Prosecutions

The purpose of this study was to test the utility of the Victim Satisfaction Model of the criminal justice system by quantitatively assessing criminal defense attorneys’ perceptions of victims’ involvement in the charging and plea bargaining stages of the criminal process. A cross-section research design was used in this study. Self-administered questionnaires were mailed to defense attorneys who regularly practice criminal law in Texas. The results of this study support the utility of the Victim Satisfaction Model of the criminal justice system and further our understanding of victim involvement in the decision making and have important implications for the American criminal justice system.     

Analysis and analytical tools for managing corporate public affairs

This paper examines the place of analysis in corporate public affairs practice. It examines analysis in the larger context of organisational decision making, examines models, tools and techniques available to the CPA practitioner, and identifies factors why analysis has not received the prominence it deserves in the field and beyond. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications     

UPLC-MS/MS法检测佐匹克隆及其在大鼠体内动态分布研究

目的建立安眠镇静药佐匹克隆的检测方法及其在大鼠体内动态分布模型。方法实验组大鼠用佐匹克隆橄榄油溶液(47.25mg/kg)灌胃给药,空白对照组大鼠采用橄榄油灌胃,分别于0.5、1、1.5、2.5、5、8、12h后采集心血后处死大鼠,分别取心、肝、肺、脾、肾、胃、大脑组织,采用超高效液相色谱-串联质谱法(UPLC-MS/MS)检测各组织中佐匹克隆的质量浓度。结果佐匹克隆与内标物SKF525A出峰时间分别为1.43、1.6min。各组织中佐匹克隆在5~5000ng/mL(g)线性关系良好。佐匹克隆在10、100、1000ng/mL三个浓度下日间、日内精密度良好,在各组织中平均萃取回收率高。灌胃给药后大鼠各组织中佐匹克隆含量在0.5~1h内呈上升趋势,在1h时达到峰值,在各时间点,佐匹克隆在胃壁组织中含量较其他组织高,心血和大脑组织中相对较少。结论本课题建立的UPLCMS/MS法动态检测大鼠各组织中佐匹克隆的含量具有高效性、可靠性的特点,这对今后法医学案件中涉及到佐匹克隆定性定量检验有一定的参考价值。