International Organizations and Government Killing: Does Naming and Shaming Save Lives?

Do international organizations affect government killing? Extant work has studied international organizations' effects on a set of human rights, but has not examined the abilities of specific actors to protect specific rights. I analyze naming and shaming by three types of international organizations (human rights nongovernmental organizations [NGOs], the news media, and the United Nations), focusing on their impacts on a single type of abuse: one-sided government killing. I present a principal-agent theory in which the government develops a preference for killing, and then delegates the murderous task to a set of individual perpetrators. The theory reveals new ways for international organizations to make killing costly, and statistical analyses support my expectations: By calling attention to abusive states, human rights NGOs and the United Nations can reduce both the likelihood and severity of state-sponsored murder. I also find that international organizations are better equipped to prevent killing from the beginning than to limit mounting body counts once it has begun.     

Fight or flight: Integral emotions and violent intentions

The effect of proximate emotions on risk perceptions is of central importance to criminal decision‐making theory, but has been understudied. We investigate the role of two integral (situational specific) emotional responses, anger and fear, in a decision‐making context regarding the choice to commit assault. We draw on dual‐process models of information processing and appraisal theory to propose a theoretical model in which integral emotions influence decisions and behavior. Using data from an experiment embedded in a survey to a nationwide sample of adults (N = 804), we test the interrelated roles of anger, fear, and traditional rational choice considerations on the intention to commit assault. We find a strong direct association between emotions and intentions to commit assault. Additionally, anger and fear moderate the effect of cognitive deliberations on behavioral intentions and provide a lens through which to evaluate a criminogenic opportunity.     

CRIME DIVERSITY*

Large geographic areas should host a greater diversity of crime compared with small geographic areas. This proposition is reasonable given that larger geographic areas should not only support more crime but also contain a greater diversity of criminogenic settings. This article uses a neutral model to characterize crime richness as a function of area. The model starts with two neutral assumptions: 1) that all environments are statistically equivalent and exert no influence on what types of crimes occur there; and 2) that different crime types occur independently of one another. The model produces rigorous predictions for the mean and variance in crime richness with increasing area. Tests of the model against a sample of 172,055 crimes occurring in Los Angeles during the year 2013 are qualitatively consistent with neutral expectations. The model is made quantitatively consistent by constant scaling. Resampling experiments show that at most 20 percent of the mean crime richness is attributable to nonrandom clustering and assortment of crime types. A modified neutral model allowing for variation crime concentration is consistent with observed variance in crime richness. The results suggest that very general and largely neutral laws may be driving crime diversity in space.     

中国汉族女性青少年法医学活体骨龄推断数学模型的建立

目的建立推断中国汉族女性青少年活体骨龄的数学模型。方法摄取华中、华南及华东等地区的838名年龄介于11～20周岁正常女性青少年双侧锁骨胸骨端以及左侧肩、肘、腕、髋、膝、踝关节的X线片。依据青少年骨发育分级标准对24项骨骼发育指标进行阅片、分级,结合考虑身高、体质量及地区等影响因素．应用SAS8．1及SPSS11．0软件进行统计学处理,探索各指标与年龄的相关性。结果建立了我国汉族女性青少年利用锁骨胸骨端及6大关节骨骺闭合程度联合推断活体年龄的多元回归数学模型．推导出判定我国汉族女性青少年是否已满14、16和18周岁的Fisher’S两类判别分析方程。结论本研究所建立的判定活体年龄的数学模型丰富了活体年龄的法医学鉴定方法,有利于提高活体骨龄鉴定方法的科学性和结论的准确性。     

新自由主义、东亚模式与经济发展

当前经济发展战略的分歧主要是新自由主义与东亚模式之争,前者执著于静态的比较优势,后者迷信于威权政治。对于处于工业化初期阶段的国家来说,自由贸易可以利用发达国家的扩散效应与产业转移,促进本国技术进步,改善贸易条件,节约技术开发的资金与时间,但对于进入工业化中期的国家来说,后发优势递减,技术引进日益困难,自由贸易将导致长期的贸易条件恶化;权威政府则由于社会资本的消蚀,民主法制的不健全,也产生了严重失灵现象,并进一步加剧市场失灵,双重失灵使东亚模式已不可持续。只有在建立民主宪政体制,制约政府失灵的基础上,通过有限贸易保护和积极的产业政策来纠正市场失灵,提高自主技术开发能力,后发国家才能改善本国贸易条件,加速工业化的发展。     

A test of the stability of punishment hypothesis: The Dutch case

This paper tests the hypothesis of the stability of punishment as developed by Blumstein and his associates against Dutch prison data. After summarizing the existing empirical evidence, Dutch prison data are presented pertaining to the average daily population in penal institutions, on the one hand, and the number of admissions in these institutions, on the other hand. In three ways it is tested whether these data do support the hypothesis: regression analysis, Box-Jenkins analysis, and the analysis of a few dynamic models as presented by Berket al. (1981). The paper ends with discussing Blumstein's hypothesis and considers the way research into the extent of the prison population should be continued.     

Justice and emotional reactions to the disadvantaged

Various attitutidinal, cognitive, emotional, and actional reactions to problems and needs of less fortunate people (unemployed, poor people in the developing countries, foreign workers in West Germany) were assessed in a questionnaire study with 865 respondents. The external validity of self-report data was established by external ratings. The focus was on emotional reactions (existential guilt, sympathy, moral outrage because of unjust disadvantages, anger about the disadvantaged, contentment with one's own advantages, fear of losing these, hopelessness with respect to the fate of the less fortunate). Several justice-related variables (beliefs, views, appraisals) as well as responsibility-related variables and social attitudes were assessed as predictors of emotions. The importance of justice-related variables for the arousal of different social emotions was clearly shown. The use and usefulness of cognitive models of discrete emotions is discussed. The impact of emotions on the readiness to various forms of prosocial activities in favor of the less fortunate was also shown: Moral outrage and existential guilt proved to be much more salient predictors than sympathy. Crucial differences between these three prosocial emotions as well as the impact of justice-related variables on readiness to prosocial activities are discussed.     

The measurement of specialization and escalation in the criminal career: An alternative modeling strategy

Recent research using indices of specialization and escalation, such as the forward specialization coefficient and the escalation coefficient, have generally shown that repeat offenders tend to commit the same type or a more serious type of crime on successive arrests. Unfortunately, there are two important limitations to the use of specialization and escalation indices: (1) the meaning and interpretation of the coefficients is often unclear, and (2) the coefficients cannot be tested for statistical significance across groups. In an attempt to account for these limitations and to extend prior research in this area, this paper applies a class of log-linear models developed for studying social mobility tables with matched categories (for one or more groups) to crime-type switching tables. The benefits of using these models, in comparison with prior specialization and escalation research, are that the parameter estimates can be interpreted directly as tests of specialization and escalation in a meaningful way and the parameter estimates can be tested for equality across groups, such as age, race, and gender. The application and interpretation of these models are illustrated with arrest data from a sample of felony offenders in Michigan.     

The Symbolic Advantages and Brand Symbolic Models of Zhejiang Enterprises——from the Perspective of Brand Semiotics

As the major business group of China, Zhejiang Enterprises have undergone a marked promotion from tangible products advantages to intangible brand value. The brand resources have become the significant cultural asset for transformation and upgrading. Based on combing the symbolic advantages of Zhejiang Enterprises, this paper studies the symbolic connotation of Zhejiang Enterprises brand in different stages after the reform and opening from the brand semiotic theoretical view. The paper establishes four brand models: A, GB, DB and IB, which will be the important theoretical references for Zhejiang Enterprises in the development of cultural industry, improving the brand symbolic vitality and participating in the competition of the world brands.