经济增长的因素分析——基于中国的经验研究

实证分析表明,现阶段影响中国经济增长的各要素中,物质资本的贡献率仍然最大,而R&D投入、人力资本和外商直接投资对中国经济增长的贡献率相对较小.因此,努力提升人力资本、市场化改革等非物质资本对经济增长的贡献份额是下一阶段我国经济增长要竭力解决的难题.     

Institutions and Economic Performance: The Use and Abuse of Culture in New Institutional Economics

Important research programs within New Institutional Economics advance culturalist arguments to explain failures of economic development. Focusing on the work of Douglass C. North and Avner Greif, this article argues that such arguments rely on an essentialist conception of culture that is both historically inaccurate and analytically misleading. Greif’s work in particular rests on a selective use of empirical data that ultimately distorts the deductive models that are at the core of his work. As a result, both scholars use culture to account for outcomes that are more adequately explained as the product of social conflict and political struggles—struggles in which culture plays a far more contingent and destabilizing role than the one they attribute to it. What is needed, I argue, is to link arguments about the persistence of inefficient institutions with a sociologically informed conception of culture as an ensemble of resources that enhance rather than constrain the scope of individual agency. To come to terms with the effects of culture on institutional formation and change it is necessary to replace the essentialism articulated by North and Greif with a strategic-instrumentalist view in which culture is compatible with a wide spectrum of economic behaviors, individual actions, and thus institutional trajectories.

Institutions and Caribbean Economic Performance: Insights from Jamaica

We explore the impact of social institutions on economic performance in Jamaica through a reinterpretation of the plantation economic model. In its original form, the plantation model fails to develop a causal link between the plantation legacy and persistent underdevelopment. Despite its marginalization, the model remains useful for discussions on growth and development. Consequently, we offer a reappraisal using the causal insights from Kenneth Sokoloff and Stanley Engerman. We use two examples to demonstrate how inequality encourages the formation of institutions that are inconsistent with growth, and an empirical analysis to confirm the hypothesized relationship between inequality, institutions, and economic development. Since inequality is expected to influence growth indirectly, we use a structural specification, which follows William Easterly’s recent test of Sokoloff and Engerman’s argument. Our reliance on a time-series specification is unique. We demonstrate that the expectation that, on average, inequality and growth is negatively related and that institutions may compromise growth are accurate for Jamaica, the most cited Caribbean nation in the current discourse. Our results carry several policy implications, including support for the recent calls in Jamaica for political restructuring. However, both the paucity of similar studies and the importance of the implications for sustainable growth and development demand further analyses.

刑事和解的成本收益分析——以"经济人"预设为理论前提

刑事纠纷中的双方和国家都可以被视为经济人,根据经济学的成本收益理论,对于重视获得补偿的被害人和有支付能力的加害人,从和解中获得的利益要大于从正规诉讼程序中获得的利益。从立法、司法和刑事法目的实现的角度,国家扩大刑事和解范围,对其进行法律规制也是实现收益最大化的明智的选择。     

试论经济法律责任独立的意义

本文分析了经济法律责任研究的三种思路,提出了经济法律责任相对独立于传统部门法法律责任的观点,阐述了经济法律责任独立的理论意义和实践意义。     

大国博弈、双层均势的亚洲时刻--俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦的认知与政策立场

俄罗斯智库对中美经贸摩擦有着独特的认知和期待,并与克里姆林宫的官方立场互为表里。总体上,俄方智库的观点是,在经贸摩擦的背后,是中美两国对军事、政治、科技、地区和全球领导权的竞争;两国的国内议程和对外政策,将因此受到深远影响并产生溢出效应--在亚洲区域内形成两极结构。即使两国会因国内和国际政治因素,在经贸问题上达成妥协,但中方不会放弃获得世界科技领导者的雄心,美方也不会打消遏制中国发展动能的战略意图。俄罗斯应与中国继续保持经济与军事合作,避免与美国和西方关系的继续恶化,并在亚太地区推动"大欧亚伙伴关系"倡议。俄罗斯政策分析界基于自身利益的演绎,将中美经贸摩擦定性为大国博弈,相应的政策建议反映出俄罗斯以在全球和亚洲分别制衡美中为目标的双层均势策略。俄罗斯将在有亚洲其他国家参与的情景下扮演战略平衡手角色,借中美全面对抗之势,在中美俄三边关系之外扭转不利的外部发展环境。俄罗斯对亚太国际局势的盘活作用,将催生双边和三边竞合新模式的建立。     

Continuing Revolt of the Urban Chinese Voters: The Case of Kepong

Abstract

Since the 2008 Malaysian general election the Chinese vote has swung overwhelmingly to the opposition, and this trend has continued in the 2013 general election. When announcing the results of the 2013 general election, Prime Minister Najib labelled it as a ‘Chinese tsunami’. Taking the case of Kepong, this article attempts to explain the reasons for the urban Chinese voters’ continuing support for the Democratic Action Party.     

亚太经济一体化背景下跨境破产的区域合作

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》的签署进一步推动亚太地区投资与贸易的自由化,跨境破产案件将逐渐增多,鉴于各国跨境破产国内立法发展不平衡的状况,形成区域合作多边机制是破解难题的有效路径。亚太自贸区跨境破产区域合作注重与国际规则对接的同时,应兼顾成员国法律传统与司法制度的特点,在区域内构建以承认与协助主要破产程序为中心的司法协助制度,厘清与界定外国破产程序和破产判决概念,明确主要破产程序的效力与管辖权确定标准,统一承认与协助外国破产程序的审查规则与程序规则,保证区域内跨境破产司法协助的确定性与可预见性。认同平行破产程序在现阶段解决跨境破产争议的合理性,在区域内推进形成主从程序协调机制。建立法院间交流与合作机制,促进跨境破产案件在区域内的高效审理。     

疫情冲击下的世界经济与中国对策

新冠肺炎疫情的急剧扩散正在对世界经济产生严重冲击,使得任何国家都无法独善其身。本文探讨了疫情对世界经济增长、深层次结构以及全球经济治理等领域可能造成的冲击,认为世界经济秩序和国际经济关系都将受到重大影响,全球化进程可能呈现出现碎片化发展趋势,全球治理赤字更加凸显且内容更加广域化,跨国公司的产业链重构进程将有所加快并更加注重安全因素。在这种严峻形势下,中国应采取更加系统的应对措施,短期内宏观经济政策重心应该从“保增长”调整为“保就业”,并努力确保外向型产业链稳定;中长期应该更加注重扩大内需,进一步扩大金融业开放和积极推进国际经济协调。     

Contending eurocentric theories: the case study of Thailand's economic regionalism in ASEA

ABSTRACT

The Eurocentric theory of economic regionalism, as demonstrated by the empirical case of the European Union, has been widely recognized as the pathfinder, role model, and inspiration for other regional organizations, including ASEAN, due to its continuous attempts at deepening economic integration, formalizing the decision-making process, and legalizing the administrative body. Despite this concordant movement, it is evident from Thailand that ASEAN has evolved differently from the rationale, process, and prediction that Eurocentric theory dictates.

The purpose of this article is to argue that the economic regionalism of ASEAN has not developed in accordance with an economically-oriented rationale. Moreover, the process of economic integration has not necessarily derived from the free trade agreement itself, particularly when a country lacks continuity in terms of its development of regionalist projects. In addition, Thailand has not followed the path of economic integration due to spillover effects. This is because member countries have not given up their sovereignty in favour of the regional institution. Economic regional activities have been broadened within a limited scope, and the expansion has been conducted through bilateral talks, rather than a strengthening of regional solidarity.