Electoral context,habit-formation and voter turnout: A new analysis

Drawing on the concept of habitual voting (Plutzer, 2002), Franklin (2004) argues that the effects of electoral context on voter turnout will be largely limited to the cohorts who have experienced few elections in their lifetime. Those with more electoral experience would thus remain unaffected. Testing the above hypothesis is a way of a feasible indirect examination of the concept of habitual voting. Such tests have so far focused primarily on the impact of electoral competitiveness on turnout. I propose a new superior analysis of Franklin's hypothesis that, I claim, approaches the standards of a natural experiment. My test – focusing on the national election cycles as a contextual trait of the European Parliament elections – delivers new evidence supporting this hypothesis.     

Timing and targeting of state repression in authoritarian elections

Autocrats face a fundamental tension: how to make elections appear credible (maintaining legitimacy) without losing control over outcomes (losing power). In this context, we claim that incumbents choose the timing and targets of state repression strategically. We expect that before elections, regimes will moderate their use of violence against ordinary citizens, while simultaneously directing state-sponsored repression towards opposition elites. Ordinary citizens are likely to experience greater repression after the election. We test these expectations using unique events-based repression data, conducting cross-national analysis of all presidential elections in authoritarian regimes from 1990 to 2008 to understand the timing and targeting of repression around elections under authoritarian regimes. In keeping with our expectations, we find that in the months prior and during the election, opposition leaders experience greater rates of repression than voters. We suspect that incumbents find it more effective to repress electoral challengers, since these pose a direct threat to their victory. Conversely, incumbents resist repressing voters whose support they need at the polls to win and to legitimize the election itself.     

Seasonal Variation of Carcass Decomposition and Gravesoil Chemistry in a Cold (Dfa) Climate

It is well known that temperature significantly affects corpse decomposition. Yet relatively few taphonomy studies investigate the effects of seasonality on decomposition. Here, we propose the use of the Köppen‐Geiger climate classification system and describe the decomposition of swine (Sus scrofa domesticus) carcasses during the summer and winter near Lincoln, Nebraska, USA. Decomposition was scored, and gravesoil chemistry (total carbon, total nitrogen, ninhydrin‐reactive nitrogen, ammonium, nitrate, and soil pH) was assessed. Gross carcass decomposition in summer was three to seven times greater than in winter. Initial significant changes in gravesoil chemistry occurred following approximately 320 accumulated degree days, regardless of season. Furthermore, significant (p < 0.05) correlations were observed between ammonium and pH (positive correlation) and between nitrate and pH (negative correlation). We hope that future decomposition studies employ the Köppen‐Geiger climate classification system to understand the seasonality of corpse decomposition, to validate taphonomic methods, and to facilitate cross‐climate comparisons of carcass decomposition.     

From the Inside Out: Efforts by Homeless Women to Disrupt Cycles of Crime and Violence

The premise that childhood victimization is a risk factor for crime and violence in adulthood finds general support, though few agree that there is a direct causal relationship. Mediating factors and intervening variables are often studied. Rarely investigated, however, are the complex and difficult dynamics experienced by those enmeshed in these “cycles of violence.” In this study we explore the struggles of homeless women to disrupt patterns of violence in their lives. Using in-depth qualitative interviews, we illustrate how these women learn and understand that they are caught up in cycles of crime and violence and, to varying degrees, have made active efforts to disrupt them. However, we find that they have very few tools or resources with which this could be accomplished, which ultimately thwarts potentially successful efforts for lasting change while foregrounding deficiencies in systemic support.     

Nomination rules and the calculus of mobilization: Theory and evidence from Mexico

Does party organization shape candidates’ electoral mobilization efforts? I develop a novel theoretical account linking candidate selection rules to electoral mobilization. Nomination rules that require aspiring candidates to compete in electoral races, such as primary elections, create incentives for them to make considerable investments in order to win the party’s nomination. Using a decision-theoretic model, I show how these initial investments at the nomination stage shape the candidates’ mobilization expenditures in the general election. The main theoretical result establishes that primaries increase candidates’ mobilization efforts only when the general election is not expected to be competitive; when a close race is expected, candidates mobilize at the same rates regardless of how they were nominated. Analysis of an original dataset on candidate selection and electoral mobilization in Mexico provides strong support for the theory.     

When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out

Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather. Thus, bad weather exacerbates unequal democratic participation by pushing low-propensity voters to abstain. Efforts to include marginal voters therefore ought to be intensified during poor weather, and elections could even be moved to seasons with more pleasant weather to improve participatory equality.     

Mind the gap(s): Winning,losing, and perceptions of electoral integrity in mixed-member proportional systems

This study investigates whether and how experiences of winning and losing at the ballot box shape voters' views about the integrity of the electoral process in Germany's mixed-member proportional system. Relying on comprehensive data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) 2021, the analysis provides evidence for a consistent winner-loser gap in voters' electoral-integrity perceptions, with electoral losers evaluating the electoral process systematically more negative than electoral winners. Moreover, the analysis shows that the winner-loser gap is particularly pronounced for voters who lost in two consecutive federal elections (‘repeated losers’) as well as for those who suffered electoral defeat with both their list and district votes (‘double losers’). These findings provide novel insights on how voters in mixed-member proportional systems cope with winning and losing at the ballot box, highlighting that electoral losers place (part of) the blame for their electoral defeat on the electoral process and procedures as such. In addition, the findings point to the relevance of specific features of electoral systems in shaping winner-loser gaps in electoral-integrity beliefs.     

玉米赤霉烯酮对小鼠免疫器官的毒性作用

采用腹腔注射给药方式研究了玉米赤霉烯酮(zearalenone,ZEA)对小鼠免疫器官的毒性作用。结果表明,连续6d注射25mg/kgZEA后,试验小鼠的胸腺指数与对照组相比显著降低(P0.05),胸腺明显萎缩,胸腺细胞出现典型的凋亡峰,脾指数降低但与对照组差异不显著(P0.05),脾淋巴细胞未见典型的凋亡峰;单次注射50mg/kgZEA48h后,胸腺细胞和脾淋巴细胞均发生细胞周期阻滞,均显著阻滞于细胞周期的G2/M期;连续3d注射50mg/kgZEA后,小鼠胸腺和脾出现病理性变化,表现为胸腺皮质减少,髓质增多,脾白髓萎缩,局灶性坏死等。证明ZEA对小鼠胸腺和脾有明显的毒害作用。     

Political Business Cycle in Taiwan—Evidence from Central Government Expenditures

The political business cycle (PBC) refers to the phenomenon of an incumbent utilizing fiscal or monetary policies to create an economic boom before an election so that periodic fluctuations are induced according to election calendars. This article uses panel data from 1992 to 2010 to examine the effect of presidential elections on central government departmental expenditure in Taiwan. The results suggest an opportunistic PBC in Taiwan after the first Taiwanese presidential direct election in 1996. Furthermore, Taiwan’s government expenditure cycles have been significantly stronger in the years of the “new democracy.”     

牛巴贝斯虫体外培养体系的建立

利用静相培养技术,建立了牛巴贝斯虫(Babesia bovis)的体外连续培养体系,测定了虫体的生长特性和对不同种属动物红细胞的侵染性。结果显示,牛巴贝斯虫的生长周期介于33.66～38.51h之间;在体外可入侵牛、人、驴和绵羊的红细胞,难以侵入山羊的红细胞,且只在牛红细胞中实现传代培养。该方法的建立为寄生虫和宿主细胞相互作用的研究、治疗药物的筛选、诊断和疫苗用抗原的鉴定等提供了技术平台。