The house size effect and the referendum paradox in U.S. presidential elections

Barthélémy et al. (2014), extending the work of Neubauer and Zeitlin (2003), show that some U.S. presidential elections are subject to a ‘House size effect’ in that the winner of the election, i.e., the candidate who wins a majority of electoral votes, depends on the size of the House of Representatives. The conditions for the effect relate to the number of ‘Senate’ versus ‘House’ electoral votes won by each candidate, but the relationship is not straightforward due to ‘locally chaotic’ effects in the apportionment of House seats among the states as House size changes. Clearly a Presidential election that is subject to the House size effect exhibits the referendum paradox, i.e., the electoral vote winner is the popular vote loser, for some House sizes but not for others.     

Voting Advice Applications and electoral turnout

In the last two decades Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) have become popular tools among voters, especially in several countries with a multi-party system. In this paper we test if the use of VAAs stimulates electoral participation. We use survey data from the Netherlands, where such tools are widely used. In order to overcome methodological problems of earlier studies, we use techniques that model the effect of confounding variables as a problem of selection into the treatment (VAA usage). We estimate that VAA usage accounted for about four per cent of the reported turnout in the election. The mobilising effect was largest among groups that typically vote in relatively small numbers, such as young voters and those less knowledgeable about politics.     

反腐治本之道：制度推进、参与氛围和常态化反腐路径

随着中国社会的日益富裕，改革进入了矛盾冲突的多发期，贫富差距和遏制腐败成为公众关注的焦点。因为反腐败作为保障分享式发展的基础环节，不仅要惩戒贪腐，而且要提供一个公平、透明和利益分享的公共秩序，从而让更多的中国人富裕起来并且富而有礼。实现这一目标，关键是看能否在既得利益、权力和人情的复杂纠葛中探寻到腐败扩散的机制，进而通过制度推进和公民参与来阻断它并进行主动防御。这便是公民文化框架下的防腐扩散机制。它包括微观结构上的资源开放、规则透明、问责制等流程，和宏观秩序上基于“民治才能民有”的制度建设和形成“人人起来负责”的参与氛围。这种微观结构与宏观秩序的互动，将有效稳妥地解构既得利益圈子，使熟人文化走向公民文化，形成对腐败的普遍抵抗机制，从而克服古典治理的困境，冲破“历史周期率”的命运，最终完成中国社会从传统治理向现代治理的转型。     

Not much happened: The impact of gender quotas in Poland

Poland maintained its open-list PR system but introduced gender quotas in the 2011 parliamentary elections in order to increase the number of women deputies. Yet this change had only a limited impact on women's representation. The 2011 election confirms that ‘favorable’ electoral laws provide opportunities for women, but they cannot guarantee that women will be elected. In particular, the use of quotas alone is not sufficient to ensure high levels of women's representation. The most important factors in explaining the Polish result were 1) the absence of a ‘zipper’, a list ordering that alternates men and women candidates, thus ensuring high list-places for women 2) the parties' favoring of men in their list placement 3) the relative size of the political parties and 4) voters' support for list leaders and incumbent deputies. Despite a disappointing outcome, quotas may be seen as beneficial in increasing women's presence and the potential for further evolution of the electoral system.     

Pretty faces,marginal races: Predicting election outcomes using trait assessments of British parliamentary candidates

The conventional wisdom on Western European politics leads us to believe that all the “action” lies with parties, because the unified parliamentary delegations in Western Europe draw voters' attention to parties' policies and images. Though British elections take place under a single member district plurality system, British parties, like their continental counterparts, are highly centralised and feature disciplined parliamentary delegations. Despite the strong ties between British candidates and their parties, we demonstrate that perceptions of candidates' personal attributes can be used to predict general election outcomes. Using a computer-based survey where subjects are asked to evaluate real British candidates using only rapidly determined first impressions of facial images, we successfully predict outcomes from the 2010 general election. Moreover, we find that perceptions of candidates' relative attractiveness are particularly useful for predicting outcomes in marginal constituencies.     

A systematic approach to study electoral fraud

Integrity of elections relies on fair procedures at different stages of the election process, and fraud can occur in many instances and different forms. This paper provides a general approach for the detection of fraud. While most existing contributions focus on a single instance and form of fraud, we propose a more encompassing approach, testing for several empirical implications of different possible forms of fraud. To illustrate this approach we rely on a case of electoral irregularities in one of the oldest democracies: In a Swiss referendum in 2011, one in twelve municipalities irregularly destroyed the ballots, rendering a recount impossible. We do not know whether this happened due to sloppiness, or to cover possible fraudulent actions. However, one of our statistical tests leads to results, which point to irregularities in some of the municipalities, which lost their ballots: they reported significantly fewer empty ballots than the other municipalities. Relying on several tests leads to the well known multiple comparisons problem. We show two strategies and illustrate strengths and weaknesses of each potential way to deal with multiple tests.     

新经济增长周期形势下中部崛起特点分析

中部地区在改革开放后的很长一段时间里经济建设滞后于东部沿海地区,在中央实行西部大开发和振兴东北老工业等政策后,中部地区的发展问题被提上日程。在新一轮经济增长周期到来的时刻,中部地区必须抓住这一难得的历史机遇,加快经济发展力度,努力实现中部地区的崛起。     

Maids and mothers: Domestic servants and illegitimacy in 19th-century Australia

Historically, domestic servants have been overrepresented amongst women whose ex-nuptial pregnancy became a public “problem.” Despite such apparent vulnerability, female rescue-workers also saw domestic work as the pathway to redemption for such women. Drawing on extensive Australian data on single mothers and their children in the 19th-century, this article investigates the complex relationship between domestic service and illegitimacy. While it will argue that the overrepresentation is more apparent than real, a product of the situation of the domestic servant whose workplace was her home and whose continued employment was often dependent on maintaining high moral standards, it will also contest the viability of domestic service as a “solution” for the mother compelled to work to support her child.     

Back Home? Refugees' Experiences of their First Visit back to their Country of Origin

This paper argues that the first visit ‘back home’is important for refugees because it acts as a catalyst forrenewed engagements with host country and country of origin.The study shows that conditions in both countries impact ondecision-making and ultimately that integration and return cancoexist. The first re-connection with ‘home’ isdescribed as a memorable event in and of itself. Marked by anawareness of the passing of time, it provides both an end towaiting and worrying and a measure of one's progress (or lackof) in life, thus enabling participants to move on. Establishmentof safety nets in both host and home countries as a conditionfor permanent return distinguishes the predicament of theserefugees from that of other migrants. As the meeting betweenimagination and reality, the first visit contributes to there-examination of the refugee cycle, the myth of return andthe meaning of home in a context where return encompasses onediscrete experience, the visit, and subsequent events. Overall,the paper provides a link between the literature on return asimagined while in exile and accounts of the reality of post-return.     

The Relationship Between Adolescent Physical Abuse and Criminal Offending: Support for an Enduring and Generalized Cycle of Violence

Prospective investigations have demonstrated support for the cycle of violence theory. However, few studies have examined whether or not abuse occurring during adolescence increases the prevalence and frequency of criminal involvement, or explored the long-term consequences of such victimization. In addition, there has been little investigation of whether or not the effects of abuse vary depending on characteristics of the victim, such as sex, race/ethnicity, age, family structure or income. Using data from the National Youth Survey, this study demonstrates that adolescent physical abuse has immediate and enduring effects on the prevalence and frequency of a variety of self-reported offenses, including violent and non-violent crimes, drug use and intimate partner violence. Furthermore, the study reveals that while victimization increases the prevalence of offending for victims of varying backgrounds, the frequency of offending is moderated by family income, area of residence, and family structure. Implications for prevention are discussed.