Supplementary vote; analysis, applications, and alternatives

The Supplementary Vote (SV) was invented as a compromise between the two-round runoff system and the alternative vote. This paper shows that in many ways it is not. Under SV voters rank order a limited number of candidates. If one candidate is supported by over 50% of the voters he/she is declared the winner. Otherwise, all but the top two candidates are eliminated from the contest. Then, all second preferences of voters are taken into account. The candidate winning most first and second votes is declared the winner. SV violates fundamental criteria used to evaluate electoral systems and is difficult for voters. The paper discusses an alternative to SV which avoids at least some of its most apparent flaws.     

A taxonomy of runoff methods

We look at ways of classifying runoff methods in terms of characteristics such as number of rounds, rules used to determine which candidates advance to the next round, and rules which determine the final winner. We also compare runoffs and so-called instant runoffs such as the alternative vote.     

Winning cures everything? Beliefs about voter fraud,voter confidence,and the 2016 election

Rhetoric about “rigged” elections has raised concerns about the solidity of public trust in the integrity of the voting system. Mitigating these concerns, research by Sinclair et al. (2019) on the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign documents a robust “winner's effect” on voter confidence despite intense partisan messaging aimed at influencing citizens' acceptance of the legitimacy of the election. This suggests that regularly fluctuating electoral outcomes in competitive democracies limit the impact of elite messages on trust in electoral institutions. A critical question is whether similar dynamics apply to dimensions of electoral trust that are more clearly partisan-branded and targeted, such as beliefs about the prevalence of illicit voting. This paper uses a panel study with waves conducted before and after Election Day 2016 to compare the effect of election on beliefs about the extent of illicit voting and voter confidence. Underlining both the promise and limitations of democratic competition as a counterweight to elite efforts to sow electoral distrust, there are significant “winner's effects” on both but substantially smaller impact on beliefs about illicit voting, a difference that is especially large among strong Republican partisans.     

The electoral consequences of anti-Muslim prejudice

A growing body of research has documented the development of pervasive anti-Muslim sentiment among White Americans. We build on this research to demonstrate that anti-Muslim attitudes and negative stereotypes of Muslim people have become an enduring and consistent component of White Americans' presidential vote choice beyond any one specific candidate or election. We argue that the racialization of Muslim Americas has increased their salience and significance in both the minds of White Americans and in national political discourse, making attitudes toward Muslims a consistent predictor of Whites’ presidential candidate evaluations in every election since at least 2004. We support this account with empirical evidence from the 2004–2020 American National Election Studies, using measures of group affect and negative stereotypes of Muslim people.     

Modeling ideological polarization in democratic party systems

There are mounting claims that increasing ideological polarization is reshaping democratic party systems with important effects on the functioning of electoral politics, the correlates of voting choice, turnout, and even the representativeness of government. Yet, our knowledge of what causes party system polarization is still developing. The primary research goal is to systematically combine and test existing theories predicting levels of party system polarization across 21 established democracies. Polarization levels have generally risen since the mid-1990s. A pooled model finds that characteristics of the electoral system and the party system largely determine the continuity of party system polarization. Polarization levels also appear linked to short-term factors such as citizens’ declining confidence in the economy and increasing concerns about immigration. The conclusion discusses the implications for party systems and politics in affluent democracies.     

从经济周期变化视角看信贷风险防范

经济决定金融,金融对经济有巨大的反作用。经济周期是经济发展的基本变化轨迹,同时对商业银行信贷质量具有非常明显的传递效应。商业银行要有效地防范信贷风险,除了要加强内部管理外,更重要的是要从经济周期的运动变化规律中找出防范风险的战略思路。     

Increasing irrationality? The equilibrium relationship between electoral and legislative party system size, 1950–2005

Institutional theories of party system size tell us that voters and parties should anticipate the mechanical effects of electoral systems and adjust their behaviour accordingly. If these expectations hold true, then the size of the party system at the electoral and legislative levels should maintain a long-run equilibrium relationship, as the number of parties receiving votes is adjusted in response to the number of parties in the legislature. I estimate a series of error-correction models to examine this expectation in 16 Western democracies from 1950 to 2005. Party system size at the electoral level does exhibit a general, equilibrium relationship with party system size in the legislature. However, this relationship has recently disappeared in single-member-district systems. This growing disparity between party system size at the electoral and legislative levels signals important changes in the nature of electoral representation.     

The world after financial crisis

The economic crisis is not short, especially in the western countries. It is growing up little by little. To digest the estate and property, bubble lasted in Japan for 15 years, and it has not still totally survived. The world is not the same as before the crisis. We must evaluate our values again and estimate our relationship to the greediness of the capitalism. In western world, we must revaluate the significance of the family. The demography development is directing the economy： The Asian countries are growing when the amount of middle class people is growing. The consumption markets are growing in dynamic way. In western world, the structure is changing towards health care, social services and wellbeing business. The western world is in the phase of wealthy （Batra, 1988a）. Globalization is diminishing the differences between different regions, but at the same time the differences in earnings are growing between people. The change of the economic structure is causing that the production of the industrial phase is moving to Asian countries, where the industrial phase is going on. The western countries are putting their effort on wellbeing, finance, experience, culture, services, etc.     

Reimagining Sutherland 80 years after white‐collar crime*

Eighty years ago, Edwin H. Sutherland conceptualized and defined white‐collar crime. In this article, I engage retrospectively with Sutherland's ideas and work to emphasize important aspects that continue to guide research today; to note where he was prescient as well as shortsighted. I center this discussion around “corporate crime” or crimes by business. Four main themes are discussed: 1) law and official responses to corporate offending—the data problem, 2) corporate crime and the life cycle of organizations, 3) psychological and trait‐based explanations, and 4) consequences of definitional ambiguity.     

Unfolding the coverage of illicit drugs in Estonian print press

The aim of this article is to analyze the changes in the coverage of illicit drugs by the Estonian press in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the restitution of Estonia’s independence. The article adapts Anthony Downs’ ‘issue-attention cycle,’ in which he proposes that public concern about certain issues follows a particular five-phase model. The author of this paper conducted a content analysis of 1523 press articles from 1993 to 2009. The analysis indicates that coverage of drug issues follows four of the five phases of Downs’ model, the exception being the fifth ‘post-problem’ phase.