中国经济周期新特征与“反周期”经济政策有效性

以经济增长率为主要指标,根据从谷到谷的经济周期划分法,1991年-2002年是我国进入改革开放以来的第四轮经济周期.这一轮经济周期是建国以来时间最长的一次,与以往的经济周期相比,具有增长势头平稳,短扩张、长收缩以及与世界经济周期同步化等特征,上述特征的产生是与此轮经济周期的成因直接相关的.为了防止经济大起大落,保持持续稳定增长,我国应针对经济周期出现的新特征,以拉高谷底、削平峰顶、做长周期为政策目标,以财政政策与货币政策的协调为手段,以经济政策的一致性和连续性为保证,增强"反周期"经济政策的有效性.     

中国世界文化遗产的保护与旅游开发--以敦煌莫高窟为例

敦煌莫高窟超负荷旅游承载力出现危机,洞窟内“环境疲劳”、“体质恶化”,景区内部的“城市化”和景区外围的“孤岛化”,使遗产资源的保护受到威胁。为此,中美两国专家采用高科技手段,通过壁画数字化拍摄以及洞窟虚拟漫游,建立了敦煌石窟文物电子档案,这一技术不但为永久性、高精度保存石窟艺术找到了可靠途径,而且为其他濒危古遗址的贮存和再现创造了机遇。     

Streams and stages: Reconciling Kingdon and policy process theory

Use of metaphors is a staple feature of how we understand policy processes – none more so than the use of ‘policy stages’/'cycles’ and ‘multiple streams’. Yet even allowing for the necessary parsimony of metaphors, the former is often criticised for its lack of ‘real world’ engagement with agency, power, ideology, turbulence and complexity, while the latter focuses only on agenda‐setting but at times has been utilised, with limited results, to understand later stages of the policy process. This article seeks to explore and advance the opportunities for combining both and applying them to the policy‐formation and decision‐making stages of policy making. In doing so it examines possible three, four and five stream models. It argues that a five stream confluence model provides the highest analytical value because it retains the simplicity of metaphors (combining elements of two of the most prominent models in policy studies) while also helping capture some of the more complex and subtle aspects of policy processes, including policy styles and nested systems of governance.     

Evaluating partisan gains from Congressional gerrymandering: Using computer simulations to estimate the effect of gerrymandering in the U.S. House

What is the effect of gerrymandering on the partisan outcomes of United States Congressional elections? A major challenge to answering this question is in determining the outcomes that would have resulted in the absence of gerrymandering. Since we only observe Congressional elections where the districts have potentially been gerrymandered, we lack a non-gerrymandered counterfactual that would allow us to isolate its true effect. To overcome this challenge, we conduct computer simulations of the districting process to redraw the boundaries of Congressional districts without partisan intent. By estimating the outcomes of these non-gerrymandered districts, we are able to establish the non-gerrymandered counterfactual against which the actual outcomes can be compared. The analysis reveals that while Republican and Democratic gerrymandering affects the partisan outcomes of Congressional elections in some states, the net effect across the states is modest, creating no more than one new Republican seat in Congress. Therefore, the partisan composition of Congress can mostly be explained by non-partisan districting, suggesting that much of the electoral bias in Congressional elections is caused by factors other than partisan intent in the districting process.     

Rising Damp in the Suburbs. Or ‘Whatever Happened to the Villa Tory?’

The suburban areas that were initially stereotyped in the late nineteenth century as ‘Villa Tory’ strongholds and exemplified by Hackney and Islington had, by the 1980s, become ‘bedsitter’ areas dominated by the political left. An examination of the evolution of electoral behaviour in these areas shows that conservatism did indeed dominate the villa suburbs, and that although there were previous intimations of decline, it was not until 1945 that Labour broke the Conservatives’ grip. The causes of this are identified as an outward movement of the population to interwar suburbia, the breaking up of villas into flats, and Labour's increasing appeal to middle class electors. In this category of seats, Labour has outperformed the party's national achievement consistently since 1955; the party's exceptional results here in the 2017 election are, therefore, a new peak on a long‐term trend rather than a breakthrough.     

中国PPP政策工具选择及其选择模式研究——基于中央政策的文本分析

为深入了解我国PPP政策工具选择现状,基于政策工具视角,采用文本内容分析方法,以中央政府层面(2013-2017年)颁布的PPP政策文本为分析对象,从政策工具、政策目标、项目生命周期三个维度构建了PPP政策三维分析框架。研究发现:PPP政策工具选择偏好明显,在基本政策工具维度上偏重环境型政策工具,政策目标维度偏重PPP模式推广和合作环境营造,项目生命周期维度偏重项目采购与执行;PPP政策工具选择模式明显,具体表现为两种模式四条路径。     

Balancing district and party seats: The arithmetic of mixed-member proportional electoral systems

Mixed-member proportional electoral systems (MMP) are widely praised because they combine the direct, personal election of MPs from single-seat constituencies with a proportional seat allocation. However, the size of the proportional tier matters for the question of whether the system's overall proportionality is preserved. Hence, a key challenge for constitution-makers and scholars is finding the right balance between district and proportional seats, so as to maximise district representation and guarantee proportional representation.This paper develops the first theoretical model that helps to locate this sweet spot for district and party seats. The novel solution builds on Taagepera's “logical models” about party sizes. The model is tested on 58 national parliamentary elections under MMP rules.     

The Unexpected Effect of the 2001 Crisis: The Revival of Right-Wing Mobilisation in Argentina

The mass protests of December 2001 were a turning point in Argentine politics. However, their effects in the mid- to long term have been less clear. This article argues that the 2001 crisis had two distinct consequences. The first, which was expected and immediate, was the stimulus given to left-wing grassroots organisations. The other, unexpected and deferred, was the revitalisation of right-wing collectives in subsequent years. The article uses a multiple technique approach.     

补肾调周法合少量性激素治疗肾气虚型青春期无排卵功能失调性子宫出血

［摘要］目的 探寻提高肾气虚型青春期无排卵功能失调性子宫出血临床疗效的治疗方法。方法 将60例肾气虚型青春期无排卵功能失调性子宫出血患者随机分为治疗组和对照组，每组各30例。开始时两组均采用雌激素和孕激素止血，下一周期开始，治疗组予中药补肾调周配合小剂量雌激素和孕激素治疗；对照组予阿胶当归口服液和右归胶囊配合小剂量雌激素和孕激素治疗。两组连续治疗3个月经周期。观察并比较两组综合疗效、主要诊断指标（包括月经情况和基础体温）疗效和肾气虚证候疗效。结果 治疗组综合疗效、主要诊断指标疗效和肾气虚证候疗效显著优于对照组（P<0.05）；在第3疗程末，治疗组疾病分级量化积分和中医证候积分显著低于对照组（P<0.05，或P<0.01）；组复发率比较，差异无统计学意义。结论 中药补肾调周法配合小剂量雌激素和孕激素治疗青春期无排卵功能失调性子宫出血能明显提高疗效。     

重楼总皂苷对人胃癌MNK-45和MGC80-3细胞增殖的影响

目的 观察重楼总皂苷(Rhizoma paridis total saponins，RPTS)对人胃癌MNK 45和MGC80 3细胞增殖的影响。方法 设定5个不同浓度（5、10、20、40、80 μg/ml）RPTS处理两种细胞24、48、72 h后，采用四甲基偶氮唑蓝(methyl thiazolyl tetrazolium，MTT)法测定MNK 45细胞和MGC80 3细胞增殖抑制率；设定浓度为10 μg/ml处理两种细胞24 h，采用吖啶橙/溴化乙锭（acridine orange/ethidium bromide, AO/EB）双染观察细胞形态学变化；设定浓度为10、20 μg/ml处理两种细胞6 h，用流式细胞仪测定细胞周期。结果 5～80 μg/ml RPTS对MNK 45和MGC80 3细胞增殖均具有显著的抑制作用(P<0.05，或P<0.01)，且药物剂量越大、作用时间越长，其抑制作用越强（P<0.01）；在相同药物浓度及相同作用时间下，RPTS对MNN 45细胞增殖的抑制作用较对MGC80 3作用显著增强（P<0.01）；RPTS作用于两种细胞后荧光显微镜下观察均显示细胞凋亡特征；RPTS使MNK 45细胞增殖被阻滞于G0/G1期，使MGC80 3细胞增殖被阻滞于S期。结论 RPTS能抑制人胃癌MNK 45和MGC80 3细胞增殖，诱导两种肿瘤细胞凋亡，影响两种肿瘤细胞周期时相的分布，但对两种肿瘤细胞株的抑制作用和对细胞周期时相的影响存在差异。